• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.137-170
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• 2003

Despite the great success of the derivatives market, several concerns were expressed regarding the additional volatilitystemming from program trading during the expiration of derivatives. This paper examines the impact of the expiration of the KOSPI 200 index derivatives on cash market of Korea Stock Exchange(KSE). The KOSPI 200 index derivatives market has a unique settlement price determination process. The settlement price for the expiration of derivatives is determined by call auction during the last 10 minutes after the trades for matured derivatives are finalized. We analyze typical expiration day effects such as price, volatility, and volume effects. With high frequency data, we find that there are strong expiration day effects in the KSE and try to interpret the results with the unique settlement procedures of the KOSPI 200 cash and derivatives markets.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.734-737
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• 2004

When the margin level is set relatively low, margin violation probability increases and the default probability of the futures market rises. On the other hand, if the margin level is set high, the margin violation probability decreases, but the futures market becomes less attractive to hedgers as the investor's opportunity cost increases. In this paper, we investigate whether the movement of KOSPI200(Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200) futures daily prices can be modeled with the extreme value theory. Base on this investigation, we examine the validity of the margin level set by the extreme value theory. Computational results are presented to compare the extreme value distribution and the empirical distribution of margin violation in KOSPI200. Some observations and implications drawn from the computational experiment are also discussed.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.73-82
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate a profit maximizing incentive of foreign traders in distributing the KOSPI 200 Futures. Such an incentive may induce unsophisticated retail traders to suffer loss from speculative trading. Since Korean government increased the entry barriers of the market to protect unsophisticated traders, the market size has been decreasing while the proportion of the contract held by foreign traders has been increasing. These on going changes make the market imperfectly competitive, where a profit maximization incentives of foreign traders are expected to grow. In this paper, we attempt to find any evidence of such behavior, thereby providing implications regarding market policy and market efficiency. Research design, data, and methodology - According to Kyle(1985), an informed trader exploits his/her monopoly power optimally in a dynamic context so that he/she makes positive profit, where he/she could conceal his/her trading utilizing noise trading as camouflage. We apply the KOSPI 200 Futures market to the Kyle's model: foreign traders who take into account the effect of his/her trading to maximize expected profits as an informed trader, retail investors as noise traders, and financial institutions as market makers. To find any evidence of monopolistic behavior, we test the variants of trading volume and price data of the KOSPI 200 Futures over the period of 2009 and 2017. Results - First, we find that the price of the KOSPI 200 Futures are more volatile than the price of underlying asset. Second, we find that monopolistic foreign trader's trading order flows are consistent with exploiting his/her monopoly power to maximize profit. Finally, we find that retail investors' trading order flows are inversely consistent with maximizing profit, that is, uninformed retail investors suffer loss continuously in speculative trading against informed traders. Conclusions - Our results show that the quantity of strategic order flows may have a large effect on the price, therefore, resulting the market inefficiency. The results also imply that, in implementing regulations, the depth of the market must be considered to maintain market liquidity, and suggesting interesting research topics regarding the market structure.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.399-415
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• 2024

Purpose - This study aims to explore trading behaviors of individual investors in the KOSDAQ market, thereby explaining the low profitability of individual investors relative to institutional or foreign investors and comparing features specific to the KOSDAQ market with those of the KOSPI market. Design/methodology/approach - KOSDAQ market data, ranging from 2018-01-03 to 2023-12-28, is obtained from the KRX market data system on a daily basis. 12 sub-periods are generated by dividing the entire dataset into 6-month intervals, and within each sub-period, 25 stock-groups are established by the amount of individual investors' net purchases at 4% intervals. The analysis is conducted by comparing major information on trading behaviors across the sub-periods and across the stock-groups. Findings - First, the ratio of individual investors' net purchases shows a negative correlation with the ratio of net purchases of institutional and foreign investors with a strong statistical significance for all sub-periods, and it exhibits negative correlations with the periodic cumulative returns for the most sub-periods. It is also revealed that the low profitability of individual investors might result from the failure of choosing stocks, unlike the case of the KOSPI market where individual investors' low performance is related to the choice of the timing of transactions, rather than the choice of stocks. Research implications or Originality - The empirical results indicate that individual investors in the KOSDAQ market need to be more prudent in choosing stocks than in the KOSPI market, and imply that rediscovering the benefit of the diversification, especially for the KOSDAQ market, might be substantially meaningful.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.143-173
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• 2000

본 논문에서는 기업특성변수를 고려하여 KOSPI 200을 구성하는 포함종목에 대응되는 대응 종목을 선정하고 두 집단간의 변동성차이를 비교 분석함으로써 KOSPI 200 선물거래가 주식시장의 변동성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석의 신뢰성을 높이기 위하여 개별기업의 체계적 위험, 시장가치, 회전율, 주가수준 등의 특성변수들을 통제하였으며 대외의존도가 높은 한국의 경제적 특성을 고려하여 환노출의 영향도 통제하였다. 분석결과는 KOSPI 200 선물거래는 현물거래의 제약요인을 줄여주어 현물시장의 효율성을 제고시키고 단기변동성의 증가를 가져오는 역할을 하지 못하였음을 보여준다. 선물거래 도입 이후 현물시장의 변동성은 상대적으로 감소하는 모습을 보이고 있으며 외환위기 이후에 들어서야 변동성이 증가하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 그러나 선물거래 도입 이후에 현물시장의 변동성과 자기상관에 나타난 변화는 시장마찰 요인에 크게 영향을 받고 있으며, 규제완화가 상당히 이루어진 외환위기 이후에는 포함종목의 변동성이 이전기간에 비해 상대적으로 큰 폭으로 증가하였으며 시장마찰요인에 의한 영향도 크게 개선된 것으로 나타나고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.85-95
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• 2005

The margin level in the futures market platys an important role in balancing the default probability with the investor's opportunity cost. In this paper, we investigate whether the movement of KOSPI200 futures daily prices can be modeled with the extreme value theory. Based on this investigation, we examine the validity of the margin level set by the extreme value theory. Moreover, we propose an expected profit-maximization model for securities companies. In this model, the extreme value theory is used for cost estimation, and a regression analysis is used for revenue calculation. Computational results are presented to compare the extreme value distribution with the empirical distribution of margin violation in KOSPI200 and to examine the suitability of the expected profit-maximization model.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.171-192
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• 2010

In general, a stock index and its individual stocks are assumed to follow a random walk. A stock index is an important source of information and one that is seen by people everyday, regardless of their investment intentions. This paper examines the correlation between the KOSPI-the index that best reflects the Korean stock market and the macro - economic variables that have been found to influence the index by previous studies. The sample period considers the years after 2000 when the Korean stock market matured as restrictions on foreign investors were removed. For this purpose, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and KOSPI equation with a general pacific approach were used. This paper aims at verifying the factors that determined the KOSPI after 2000 and at examining whether there was structural change in the investment environment. It also investigates changes in the factors determining the KOSPI's performance as a result of structural changes in the investment environment. The V AR (Vector Autoregressive) model including the nine variables was selected as a baseline model whose stability was tested using the unit root test. The results from the VECM and the structural changes in the investment environment can be summarized by the following Inner story points.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.21-45
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• 2021

Purpose This paper analyzed the impacts of domestic stock market by a global pandemic such as COVID-19. We investigated how the overall pattern of the stock market changed due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we analyzed in depth the pattern of stock price, as well, tried to find what factors affect on stock market index(KOSPI) in the healthcare industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach We built a data warehouse from the databases in various industrial and economic fields to analyze the changes in the KOSPI due to COVID-19, particularly, the changes in the healthcare industry centered on bio-medicine. We collected daily stock price data of the KOSPI centered on the KOSPI-200 about two years before and one year after the outbreak of COVID-19. In addition, we also collected various news related to COVID-19 from the stock market by applying text mining techniques. We designed four experimental data sets to develop decision tree-based prediction models. Findings All prediction models from the four data sets showed the significant predictive power with explainable decision tree models. In addition, we derived significant 10 to 14 decision rules for each prediction model. The experimental results showed that the decision rules were enough to explain the domestic healthcare stock market patterns for before and after COVID-19.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.10 no.11
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• pp.302-312
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• 2020

This study examined whether there is a difference in cost asymmetry between a corporate listed on KOSDAQ and a corporate listed on KOSPI, and whether there is a difference in cost asymmetry depending on the size of the listed corporate. In the previous study, cost asymmetry was examined only for listed corporate, but the difference in size between KOSDAQ-listed corporate and KOSPI-listed corporate was not examined. However, according to many studies, since the characteristics of corporate and firm risks are different between corporate listed on KOSPI and corporate listed on KOSDAQ, or even for listed corporate, such an impact may affect the decision-making of internal resource allocation. The analysis was conducted that there would be a difference in the impact. For this study, the results of analyzing the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets from 2011 to 2019 using the cost behavior model of Anderson et al. (2003), There was a difference in cost behavior in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets. Overall, as in previous studies, Cost Stickiness was appeared. but in the case of the KOSPI market, Cost Stickiness was mitigated.It was found that corporate with large corporate size made the decision to dispose of idle resources more clearly when sales decreased. In addition, it was observed that the higher the foreign investor's ownership ratio, the KOSPI market, and the larger the corporate size, the more clearly the Stickiness of cost was mitigated. This study expands research on cost asymmetry and reveals that there is a difference between the KOSPI market and the KOSDAQ market, and between the size of the corporate, and has a differentiation from previous studies.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.287-307
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• 2012

We empirically examine the price discovery dynamics among the VKOSPI, the KOSPI200 spot, and the KOSPI200 futures markets. The analysis employs the vector-autoregression, Granger causality, impulse response function, and variance decomposition using both daily data from 2009. 04. 13 to 2011. 12. 30 and 1 minute data from the bull market, bear market, and the flat period. The main results are as follows; First, the lead lag relationships between KOSPI200 spot(futures) yield VKOSPI returns could not be found from the daily data analysis. But KOSPI200 spot(futures) have a predictive power for VKOSPI from 1 minute data. Especially KOSPI200 spot(futures) and VKOSPI show the bi-directional effects to each other during the return rising period Second, We chose the VAR(1) the model in daily data but adopt the VAR(3) model in the one minute data to determine the lead lag time. We know that there is predictability during the very short period Third, Spot returns and futures returns makes no difference in daily data results. According to the one minite data results, VKOSPI returns have a predictive power for KOSPI200 spot return, but have no predictive power for KOSPI200 futures return.