• Title/Summary/Keyword: Joint probability

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A Service Life Prediction for Unsound Concrete Under Carbonation Through Probability of Durable Failure (탄산화에 노출된 콘크리트 취약부의 확률론적 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung Jun;Park, Sang Soon;Nam, Sang Hyeok;Lho, Byeong Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

Multivariate design estimations under copulas constructions. Stage-1: Parametrical density constructions for defining flood marginals for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia

  • Latif, Shahid;Mustafa, Firuza
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.287-328
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    • 2019
  • Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume & durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side, model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature, selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge, Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.

On method calculation design flood elevation of esturial city

  • Wang Chao;Chao, Wang-Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.42-44
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    • 1996
  • Recently due to repeatedly occurrence of flood, a lot of Chinese cities accept new design criteria for their protective project Most of them calculated by a certain type of probability distribution. In order to meet the demand of development economy the return period of design criteria is changed more longer and longer even 1000years, but the data which the calculation dependent on is only about 30-40 years. (omitted)

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A Note on Possibilistic Correlation

  • Hong, Dug-Hun
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 2009
  • Recently, Carlsson, Full\acute{e}$r and Majlender [1] presented the concept of possibilitic correlation representing an average degree of interaction between marginal distribution of a joint possibility distribution as compared to their respective dispersions. They also formulated the weak and strong forms of the possibilistic Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. In this paper, we define a new probability measure. Then the weak and strong forms of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality are immediate consequence of probabilistic Cauchy-Schwarz inequality with respect to the new probability measure.

Analysis of Forward Link Capacity for a DS/CDMA System with Multirate Traffic Sources

  • Park, Wan;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2000.07a
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we derive forward link Erlang capacity reflecting both outage probability and blocking probability of each traffic type in mixed traffics environment. We firstly determine the number of available virtual trunks of the forward link from a circuit switching perspective. Then, capacity sharing model and generalized Erlang model are employed to derive joint Erlang capacity of various traffics types.

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Optimum Uplink Power/Rate Control for Minimum Delay in CDMA Networks

  • Choi, Kwon-Hue;Kim, Soo-Young
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.437-444
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    • 2003
  • We derive a new joint power and rate control rule with which we can minimize the mean transmission delay in CDMA networks for a given mean transmission power. We show that it is optimal to respectively control the power inverse-linearly and the rate linearly to the square root of channel gain while maintaining the signal-to-interference ratio at a constant. We also show that the proposed joint power/rate control rule achieves excellent performance results in terms of the probability of the instantaneous delay being within a target delay against one-dimensional control schemes.

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Reliability Analysis of the Expected Overtopping Probability of Rubble Mound Breakwater (마루높이 설정을 위한 월파확률의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kweon, Hyuck-Min;Suh, Kyung-Doug;Lee, Young-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.08a
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    • pp.376-381
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    • 2003
  • The reliability analysis of overtopping probability is proposed. In order to estimate the expected overtopping probability of the rubble mound breakwater, the experimental results of individual wave runup height is applied for the analysis of irregular wave system. The joint distribution of wave heights and periods is used for the input data of runup calculation because the runup height depends on the wave height and period. The runup heights during the one event that the design wave attacks the rubble mound breakwater extend to the one life cycle of 60 years. Utilizing the Monte-Carlo method, the one life cycle is tried more about 60 times for obtaining the expected value of overtopping probability. It is found that the inclusion of the variability of wave tidal and wave steepness has great influence on the computation of the expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater. The previous design disregarding the tidal fluctuation largely overestimates or underestimates the expected overtopping probability depending on tidal range and wave steepness.

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A data-driven method for the reliability analysis of a transmission line under wind loads

  • Xing Fu;Wen-Long Du;Gang Li;Zhi-Qian Dong;Hong-Nan Li
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.461-473
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    • 2024
  • This study focuses on the reliability of a transmission line under wind excitation and evaluates the failure probability using explicit data resources. The data-driven framework for calculating the failure probability of a transmission line subjected to wind loading is presented, and a probabilistic method for estimating the yearly extreme wind speeds in each wind direction is provided to compensate for the incompleteness of meteorological data. Meteorological data from the Xuwen National Weather Station are used to analyze the distribution characteristics of wind speed and wind direction, fitted with the generalized extreme value distribution. Then, the most vulnerable tower is identified to obtain the fragility curves in all wind directions based on uncertainty analysis. Finally, the failure probabilities are calculated based on the presented method. The simulation results reveal that the failure probability of the employed tower increases over time and that the joint probability distribution of the wind speed and wind direction must be considered to avoid overestimating the failure probability. Additionally, the mixed wind climates (synoptic wind and typhoon) have great influence on the estimation of structural failure probability and should be considered.