• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between Internet search trends and stock market. Under the assumption that investors may use Internet search engine to obtain information for companies of their interests before taking actual investment actions, the relationship between the changes on Internet search volume and the fluctuation of trading volume as well as stock price of a company is analyzed with actual market data. A search trend investment strategy that reflects the changes on Internet search volume is applied to large enterprises' group and to small and medium enterprises' (SMEs) group, and the correlation between profit rate and trading volume is analyzed for each company group. Our search trend investment strategy has outperformed average stock market returns in both KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets during the seven-year study period (2007~2013). It is also shown that search trend investment strategy is more effective to SMEs than to large enterprises. The relationship between changes on Internet search volume and stock trading volume is stronger at SMEs than at large enterprises.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.919-926
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to analyze and test the effect of financial ratios and macroeconomics on Islamic stock returns listed in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) other than to assess whether investment risk can be an intervening variable in this study. The type of research is explanatory in nature with a quantitative descriptive approach. The data used is based on secondary sources with a sample group of 29 companies listed on JII for a 5-year period ending 31 December 2018. The data obtained were analyzed by using SEM (Structural Equation Model) with AMOS (Analysis Moment of Structural) 21 program. The results of the study show that only financial ratios affect sharia stock returns and investment risk, while the mediation test found that investment risk does not act as a mediating variable between financial ratios and macroeconomics and Islamic stock return. These findings indicate that the role of the company's financial health is very important. Besides affecting the rate of return obtained, the company's financial health can also reflect the level of risk that investors will accept in the future. By improving financial performance properly, a company will have a positive impact on various interested parties and minimize the level of investor losses.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.39-49
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• 2020

This study empirically examines herd behavior for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector stocks under varied market return conditions and the period during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. We examine the sample of stocks trading on the Nifty FMCG Index of the Indian equity market from January 2008 up to December 2018 using the dispersion measure of cross sectional absolute deviation and examine its relationship with the market return to explore herd phenomenon. Quantile regression estimate is used and the results of the study validate rational asset pricing models as the sector does not display herding. In contrast, anti-herd behavior at lower and median quantile values is observed. A possible reason can be the non-cyclical nature of the industry where investors rely more on the fundamentals rather than crowd chasing. We also findthe absence of herd phenomenon during the market asymmetries of bull and bear phases, extreme movements, the period of the global financial crisis, and afterward. We further examine herding under the impact of the information technology (IT) industry and conclude that significant return movements in IT sector impact dispersions in the FMCG industry. Also, there is a co-varying risk between the two sectors confirming the spillover in an integrated market.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.427-436
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• 2000

The prediction of stock price index is a very difficult problem because of the complexity of the stock market data it data. It has been studied by a number of researchers since they strong1y affect other economic and financial parameters. The movement of stock price index has a series of change points due to the strategies of institutional investors. This study presents a two-stage forecasting model of stock price index using change-point detection and artificial neural networks. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain Intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in stock price index forecasting. First, the proposed model tries to detect successive change points in stock price index. Then, the model forecasts the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). Fina1ly, the model forecasts the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for stock price index forecasting using change-point detection.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.287-296
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• 2021

This paper investigates the relationship between the ownership of the largest family blockholders and corporate risk. We also examine whether firms that belong to 30 main Chaebol groups lower corporate risk. We use panel analysis for companies listed on the Korea Exchange from 2005 to 2017. We use beta, volatility, and idiosyncratic risk as a proxy for corporate risk. We employ both the ownership of the largest family blockholders and firms that belong to 30 main Chaebol groups as a major independent variable. The results show that the ownership of the largest family blockholders is associated with low beta. In terms of the effects of the ownership of the largest family blockholders on beta, we find that a firm that belongs to the 30 main Chaebol group reinforces the lower beta. These results suggest that the ownership of the largest family blockholders and firms that belongs to 30 main Chaebol groups may be associated with low systematic risk in the Korean stock market. Our findings can provide meaningful information to investors and field officers who are interested in the relationship between firm risk and both the largest family blockholders' ownership and firms that belong to 30 main Chaebol groups.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.1-20
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• 2022

Purpose - Multiple stakeholders-including politicians, investors, and the wider public-have questioned the value of investing in port infrastructure improvements and the contributions they can make to economic performance. Design/methodology - This paper presents an empirical study of 56 countries with seaports from the year 2006 to 2019 to determine how the quality of port infrastructure affects its contribution in terms of trade openness and economic growth. To this end, this study applies hierarchical multiple regression analysis with panel data to empirically examine the economic impact of port infrastructure quality on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth. After the 56 selected countries were categorized as developed or developing, a multi-group panel data analysis was conducted. Findings - The results of this study show that trade openness has a significant positive effect on the national economy. The findings also indicate that, although developing countries should expect greater economic growth after investing in port infrastructure, this relationship weakens as developing countries become richer. Originality/value - The findings of this study not only elucidate the relationship between trade openness and national economic growth, but they also emphasize the importance of trade openness and port infrastructure in national economic growth, particularly among developing countries.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.239-262
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• 2006

The paper suggests that there has been a shift in the allocation of bank credit from large firms to small firms before and after the economic crisis. The paper also suggests that the improved lending practices of financial institutions, at least partially, contributed to this shift of corporate loans from large firms to small firms. Comparing the periods before and after the economic crisis also suggests that some important changes occurred to the corporate bond market. The effect of firm size on the corporate bond market differs before and after the economic crisis. Before the crisis, the larger the firms, the more they could borrow in the corporate bond market. However, after the crisis, it is not the case. The following interpretation could be put forward. Before the crisis, investors in the corporate bond market expected that the government would rescue large firms if they face the risk of bankruptcies. However, the collapse of Daewoo Group in 1999 shattered the TBTF (Too Big To Fail) myth of the public. The liquidity crisis of Hyundai Group in 2000-2001 reinforced the disintegration of the TBTF myth.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.73-93
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• 2009

The purpose of this study was to examine retirees' attitudes towards change of living standards. The data were drawn from the 2007 Korean Retiree Survey, as carried out by the Korean Investors Education Foundation. The major findings are as follows: 1) Some retirees were not well-prepared for retirement, i.e., they lacked financial consultation, had low personal financial literacy, and lacked sufficient wealth. Retirees suffered from health difficulties, loneliness or a sense of alienation, family conflict, or lack of pastimes. 2) Certain groups recognized the change of living standards for retirees as either positive or negative. Retirees who recognized the change of living standards as negative were not well-prepared for retirement, had low personal financial literacy, and lacked sufficient wealth. They also suffered from health difficulties, loneliness or a sense of alienation, family conflict, or lack of pastimes. 3) There was a strong probability for the negative recognition group not to be well-prepared for retirement, having low personal financial literacy, and lacking in sufficient wealth. There was a strong probability for the negative recognition group to suffer from health difficulties or lack of pastimes. Based on these findings, this research suggests that retirees should prepare for retirement with a positive attitude.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2014

It is a well recognised rule in international law that the property of aliens cannot be taken. The question of whether indirect expropriation and government regulatory measures require compensation is an important issue in international investment law. Bilateral investment treaties and other investment agreements contain brief and general indirect expropriation provisions. These focus on the effect of government action and do not address the distinction between compensable and non-compensable regulatory actions. It is generally accepted that a state is not responsible for loss of property or for other economic disadvantages resulting from bona fide general taxation accepted as within the police power of states, provided it is not discriminatory. Yukos Oil Company is a Russian oil and gas company engaged in exploration, refining, and marketing activities. It is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. Yukos Oil Company has its production operations in Russia and markets its products in Europe. An international tribunal ordered the Russian government to compensate a group of Spanish investors for the losses they suffered when Russia seized the Yukos Oil Company on July 26, 2012. This has been the subject of several judicial proceedings and academic publications. This paper explores which circumstances do not lead to taxation amounting to expropriation. The author suggests that under the following circumstances, taxation would not amount to expropriation. First, taxation should be non-discriminatory. Also a lawful exercise of the taxation powers of governments would not amount to expropriation.