• Title/Summary/Keyword: Investment Portfolio

Search Result 220, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

A Research on PV-connected ESS dissemination strategy considering the effects of GHG reduction (온실가스감축효과를 고려한 태양광 연계형 에너지저장장치(ESS) 보급전략에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Wongoo;KIM, Kang-Won;KIM, Balho H.
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.94-100
    • /
    • 2016
  • ESS(Energy Storage System) is an important source that keeps power supply stable and utilizes electricity efficiently. For example, ESS contributes to resolve power supply imbalance, stabilize new renewable energy output and regulate frequency. ESS is predicted to be expanded to 55.9GWh of installed capacity by 2023, which is 30 times more than that of 2014. To raise competitiveness of domestic ESS industry in this increasing world market, we have disseminated load-shift ESS for continuous power supply imbalance with FR ESS, and also necessity to secure domestic track record is required. However in case of FR ESS, utility of installing thermal power plant is generally generated within 5% range of rated capacity, so that scalability of domestic market is low without dramatic increase of thermal power plant. Necessity of load-shift ESS dissemination is also decreasing effected by surplus backup power securement policy, raising demand for new dissemination model. New dissemination model is promising for $CO_2$ reduction effect in spite of intermittent output. By stabilizing new renewable energy output in connection with new renewable energy, and regulating system input timing of new renewable energy generation rate, it is prospected model for 'post-2020' regime and energy industry. This research presents a policy alternatives of REC multiplier calculation method to induce investment after outlining PV-connected ESS charge/discharge mode to reduce GHG emission, This alternative is projected to utilize GHG emission reduction methodology for 'Post-2020' regime, big issue of new energy policy.

Exploring Fractional Ownership in Korean Art Market: Based on Business Model Canvas (분할소유 미술시장의 현황과 과제 - 비즈니스 모델 캔버스를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Yunjin;Koo, Jajoon
    • Korean Association of Arts Management
    • /
    • no.58
    • /
    • pp.179-204
    • /
    • 2021
  • Not only the consumption trend after the COVID-19 pandemic but also low financial interest rates have stimulated people to invest artworks. With the recent noticeable growth, art investments that mainly conducted by younger generation through online platform can be characterized by a fractional ownership in art market which means several people share one piece of artwork. This study explores 4 fractional ownership platforms in the domestic art market including Art Together, Art & Guide, Tessa, and Pica projects, using a business model canvas that describes nine key elements: Customer Segments, Value Proposition, Channels, Customer Relationships, Revenue Streams, Key Resources, Key Activities, Key Partners and Cost Structure. The four cases have similar business models, but the details of revenue streams are different. The key sources of revenue are the profit and commission of the work. Thus, maximizing the profit margin of artworks is the core of revenue streams, so selecting and purchasing highly profitable artworks are significant. Based on the analysis, there are 3 suggestions to continue fractional ownership platform businesses in art market successfully. First, it is required to have a long-term perspective on art investments, as a way to diverse asset portfolio. Second, business confidence should be increased to maintain customer loyalty. Third, the role of platforms as competent experts is important.

Performance Comparison of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms for Futures Scalping (해외선물 스캘핑을 위한 강화학습 알고리즘의 성능비교)

  • Jung, Deuk-Kyo;Lee, Se-Hun;Kang, Jae-Mo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.697-703
    • /
    • 2022
  • Due to the recent economic downturn caused by Covid-19 and the unstable international situation, many investors are choosing the derivatives market as a means of investment. However, the derivatives market has a greater risk than the stock market, and research on the market of market participants is insufficient. Recently, with the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning has been widely used in the derivatives market. In this paper, reinforcement learning, one of the machine learning techniques, is applied to analyze the scalping technique that trades futures in minutes. The data set consists of 21 attributes using the closing price, moving average line, and Bollinger band indicators of 1 minute and 3 minute data for 6 months by selecting 4 products among futures products traded at trading firm. In the experiment, DNN artificial neural network model and three reinforcement learning algorithms, namely, DQN (Deep Q-Network), A2C (Advantage Actor Critic), and A3C (Asynchronous A2C) were used, and they were trained and verified through learning data set and test data set. For scalping, the agent chooses one of the actions of buying and selling, and the ratio of the portfolio value according to the action result is rewarded. Experiment results show that the energy sector products such as Heating Oil and Crude Oil yield relatively high cumulative returns compared to the index sector products such as Mini Russell 2000 and Hang Seng Index.

The Impact of SMEs' Financing Strategies on Firm Valuation: Choice Competition between Retained Earnings and Debt (중소기업의 자본조달 방식이 기업가치에 미치는 영향: 내부유보자금과 부채의 선택경쟁)

  • Lee, Juil;Kim, Sang-Joon
    • Korean small business review
    • /
    • v.41 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-51
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study investigates how SMEs' (small and medium-sized enterprises) financing strategies affect firm valuation. Given that information asymmetry is engaged in firm valuation in the stock market, investors interpret the meanings of debt financing depending on how SMEs construct the portfolio of financing strategies (retained earnings vs debt financing), thereby making investment decision. Specifically, given that SMEs' debt financing has two meanings in the market signals, called "benefit" and "cost", this study postulates that firm valuation will be differently made by investors, depending on how they interpret the meanings of debt financing under choice competition between retained earnings and debt financing. In this study, we argue that under choice competition, as a SME's debt proportion increases, the "cost" signal outweighes the "benefit" signal, thereby decreasing firm valuation. Moreover, the effect of such signal can be contingent on the SME's characteristics-firm visibility. These ideas are examined using 363 U.S. SMEs ranging from 1971 to 2010. The fixed-effects models estimating Tobin's q show that under choice competition, a SME's debt proportion has a negative impact on firm valuation and that the firm's high visibility mitigates the effect of "cost" signal. In conclusion, this study sheds new light on how investors' interpretations of SMEs' financing strategies affect firm valuation.

An Exploratory Study On the Future Growth Strategies for Korean General Trading Companies: Applying Japanese GTC Models into Korean Companies (한국 종합상사의 미래 성장전략에 관한 탐색적 연구: 일본 종합상사 경험의 한국적 적용 방향을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joo;Hyun, Sukwon;Lee, Jongtae
    • Korea Trade Review
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.203-229
    • /
    • 2016
  • Korean general trading companies had started their business to benchmark and to adopt the successful new business models of the Japanese ones. Nevertheless, the strategic gaps between Korean and Japanese GTCs, Sogo-Shosha, still exist, including financial profitability and managerial competencies. In this regard, it is academically and practically required to find out the differences between Korean and Japanese GTCs. This study overviews the previous researches and the business cases to understand the features of GTCs and to get recent and meaningful factors which are related with the rebirth of Sogo-Shosha. Thereafter, in-depth interviews with industry experts and scholars and subsequent investigations were also conducted to suggest meaningful implications for both academicians and practitioners with the found factors. This study suggests four fundamental differences between the Korean and Japanese GTCs: ① the origin and growth path, ② business ownership, governance strategies and contracts management, ③ availabilities of investment portfolio and risk management, ④ business operation system and organizational culture. This study suggests meaningful implications for Korean GTCs to apply the experiences and lessons learned from Japanese Sogo-Shosha into their own business.

  • PDF

Analysis on Research Projects Trends of the Geoscientific Research Institution in Korea since the Fiscal Year of 1976 (지질자원 전문연구기관의 연구과제 추이 분석 연구: 1976년 이후)

  • Kim, Seong-Yong;Ahn, Eun-Young;Lee, Jae-Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.46 no.3
    • /
    • pp.235-246
    • /
    • 2013
  • The importance of R&D has been recognized around the world and Korean research funding has rapidly increased in recent years. As a results, interest in strategic R&D Investment is growing in both the public and private sectors. This study was carried out to find trends in the research projects of the KIGAM since the fiscal year of 1976. The KIGAM expended 1,193.3 billion won during the 36 years from the fiscal years of 1976 to 2011, which is 1,795.8 billion won calculated using the present value in 2011 at discount rate of 5%. R&D expenditure of KIGAM increased approximately 132.9 times from 885 million won in 1976 to 117,600 million won in 2011, and about 24.1 times from 4,882 million won in 1976, as calculated using the present value in 2011. The number of research projects increased about 6.75 times, from 28 projects in 1976 to 189 projects in 2011. Based on research trend analysis over the last 36 years, the percentage of research projects by research fields were as follows: mineral resources research, 39.5%; geologic environmental research, 28.8%; geological research, 15.6%; petroleum and marine research, 12.1%; and policy research, 3.1%. The percentage of the R&D budget dedicated to each type of research were as follows: mineral resources research, 33.1%; geologic environmental research, 25.6%; geological research, 22.8%; petroleum and marine research, 15.9%; and policy research, 2.1%. Allocation of R&D investment was determined by considering the governmental priority of such research, as well as which area were most promising. Based on the research projects trends within KIGAM and analyses of its R&D, we should build our R&D portfolio in the areas of geosciences and mineral resources.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.147-168
    • /
    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

VKOSPI Forecasting and Option Trading Application Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 VKOSPI 일 중 변화 예측과 실제 옵션 매매에의 적용)

  • Ra, Yun Seon;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.177-192
    • /
    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

The Relationship between Internet Search Volumes and Stock Price Changes: An Empirical Study on KOSDAQ Market (개별 기업에 대한 인터넷 검색량과 주가변동성의 관계: 국내 코스닥시장에서의 산업별 실증분석)

  • Jeon, Saemi;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Dongyoup
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.81-96
    • /
    • 2016
  • As the internet has become widespread and easy to access everywhere, it is common for people to search information via online search engines such as Google and Naver in everyday life. Recent studies have used online search volume of specific keyword as a measure of the internet users' attention in order to predict disease outbreaks such as flu and cancer, an unemployment rate, and an index of a nation's economic condition, and etc. For stock traders, web search is also one of major information resources to obtain data about individual stock items. Therefore, search volume of a stock item can reflect the amount of investors' attention on it. The investor attention has been regarded as a crucial factor influencing on stock price but it has been measured by indirect proxies such as market capitalization, trading volume, advertising expense, and etc. It has been theoretically and empirically proved that an increase of investors' attention on a stock item brings temporary increase of the stock price and the price recovers in the long run. Recent development of internet environment enables to measure the investor attention directly by the internet search volume of individual stock item, which has been used to show the attention-induced price pressure. Previous studies focus mainly on Dow Jones and NASDAQ market in the United States. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the individual investors' attention measured by the internet search volumes and stock price changes of individual stock items in the KOSDAQ market in Korea, where the proportion of the trades by individual investors are about 90% of the total. In addition, we examine the difference between industries in the influence of investors' attention on stock return. The internet search volume of stocks were gathered from "Naver Trend" service weekly between January 2007 and June 2015. The regression model with the error term with AR(1) covariance structure is used to analyze the data since the weekly prices in a stock item are systematically correlated. The market capitalization, trading volume, the increment of trading volume, and the month in which each trade occurs are included in the model as control variables. The fitted model shows that an abnormal increase of search volume of a stock item has a positive influence on the stock return and the amount of the influence varies among the industry. The stock items in IT software, construction, and distribution industries have shown to be more influenced by the abnormally large internet search volume than the average across the industries. On the other hand, the stock items in IT hardware, manufacturing, entertainment, finance, and communication industries are less influenced by the abnormal search volume than the average. In order to verify price pressure caused by investors' attention in KOSDAQ, the stock return of the current week is modelled using the abnormal search volume observed one to four weeks ahead. On average, the abnormally large increment of the search volume increased the stock return of the current week and one week later, and it decreased the stock return in two and three weeks later. There is no significant relationship with the stock return after 4 weeks. This relationship differs among the industries. An abnormal search volume brings particularly severe price reversal on the stocks in the IT software industry, which are often to be targets of irrational investments by individual investors. An abnormal search volume caused less severe price reversal on the stocks in the manufacturing and IT hardware industries than on average across the industries. The price reversal was not observed in the communication, finance, entertainment, and transportation industries, which are known to be influenced largely by macro-economic factors such as oil price and currency exchange rate. The result of this study can be utilized to construct an intelligent trading system based on the big data gathered from web search engines, social network services, and internet communities. Particularly, the difference of price reversal effect between industries may provide useful information to make a portfolio and build an investment strategy.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.107-122
    • /
    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.