• 대한가정학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.199-217
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• 1992

The purpose of this study was to examine changes in the household investment planning according to the family life cycle, to improve the household investment planning process, and to develop research model. The results were as follows : Household investment planning varied with stages of the family life cycle because the stock of resources shifted and financial goals changed as the family life cycle stage changed. The main financial goals of family in each stage of the life cycle were the purchasing of house in the establishing stage, children's education and marriage in the extending stage, and the elderly's economic welfare in the diminishing stage. Also, in the Ⅰ & Ⅱ stage the most important investment goals were the purchasing of house, children's education in the Ⅲ stage, children's marriage in the Ⅳ stage, and the elderly's economic welfare in the Ⅴ stage. Therefore, the financial goals were recognized as the important goals underlain the investment-planning goals, and alternatives for the accomplishment of investment-planning goals were determined. The results of this study can contribute to establish the long-run investment planning process and improve the level of household's financial well-being.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.129-140
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• 2002

This study is try to do the empirical tests on the relationship among innovation cycle, investment cycle, and business cycle suggested in recent economic growth models. We apply co-spectra analysis to estimate dynamic correlations in the extraction HP filtered variables and first difference filtered variables in our data set. Our empirical results are; (i) an existing asynchronization between innovation cycle and investment cycle, (ii) in the long frequency, an existing positive correlation between innovation cycle and business cycle, (iii) in the short frequency, however, a finding the high negative correlation between the two cycle. Our empirical findings support the recent growth through cycle models and suggest some economic policy implementations for economic stabilization during a severe business cycle.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.573-588
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• 2023

Purpose: This study presents a research approach that utilizes deep reinforcement learning to construct optimal portfolios based on the business cycle for stocks and other assets. The objective is to develop effective investment strategies that adapt to the varying returns of assets in accordance with the business cycle. Methods: In this study, a diverse set of time series data, including stocks, is collected and utilized to train a deep reinforcement learning model. The proposed approach optimizes asset allocation based on the business cycle, particularly by gathering data for different states such as prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery and constructing portfolios optimized for each phase. Results: Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed deep reinforcement learning-based approach in constructing optimal portfolios tailored to the business cycle. The utility of optimizing portfolio investment strategies for each phase of the business cycle is demonstrated. Conclusion: This paper contributes to the construction of optimal portfolios based on the business cycle using a deep reinforcement learning approach, providing investors with effective investment strategies that simultaneously seek stability and profitability. As a result, investors can adopt stable and profitable investment strategies that adapt to business cycle volatility.

• 경제분석
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.1-36
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• 2018

재고투자와 경기변동의 관계를 설명하는데 있어 생산평활(production smoothing) 가설과 재고소진 회피(stock-out avoidance) 가설은 서로 상반된 입장을 취하고 있다. 기업의 재고 투자에 관한 의사결정은 두 가지 동기 모두에 의해 영향받을 것으로 생각되지만 경기국면에 따라 각각의 영향력의 상대적 크기 혹은 방향성이 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 이에 본고는 재고투자 동학에서 생산평활 동기와 재고소진 회피동기의 상대적 유의성을 실증적으로 검증하되 경기국면별 비대칭성의 존재와 형태를 규명하는 데 분석의 초점을 둔 점에서 기존 연구와 차별성을 지닌다. 이를 위해 기존의 선형 재고투자 모형을 확장한 비선형 모형을 설정하였으며 이러한 방식이 기존 방식에 비해 우수한 지를 모형의 예측력을 비교 평가하여 확인하였다. 분석 결과, 재고투자 동학의 경기국면별 비대칭적 특성을 확인하였다. 경기 호황기에는 재고소진 회피동기가 나타나지만 생산평활 동기는 유의하지 않았다. 반대로 경기 불황기에는 재고소진 회피동기는 유의하지 않지만 Ramey (1991)에서 제시된 생산비용의 비볼록성에 의하여 재고변화가 경기침체를 심화시키는 경기 의존적 특성을 발견하였다. 경기국면별 비대칭성을 모형에 고려함으로써 그렇지 않은 모형에 비해 예측력을 향상시킬 수 있음을 표본 내 및 표본 외 예측, 다양한 예측력 검정을 통해 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 재고투자의 동학과 경기 불안정화 특성에 대한 이해를 제고하여 경제전망 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 경영과학
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.53-64
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• 2012

This paper is about the investment strategy in stocks on Fundamental analysis. Financial data of stocks from January 2. 2001 through October 30. 2009 were utilized in order to suggest the investment strategies. Fundamental analysis was used in stocks-related strategy. The portfolios are composed of 3 criteria such as the buying criteria score, exchange cycle and selling conditions. The buying criteria score is determined assigned to each stock index according to the satisfaction condition of 15 parameters selected considering the grue's criteria. The stock buying alternatives has two options with buying stocks over 13 points and over 14 points of buying criteria score. The seven exchange cycles and three selling methods are considered. So total number of portfolios is 42($2{\times}7{\times}3=42$). The simulation has been executed about each 42 portfolios and we figured out with the simulation result that 83.33% of 35 portfolios are more profitable than average stock market profit(203.43%). The outcome of this research is summarized in two parts. First, it's the exchange strategy of portfolio. The result shows that value-oriented investment (long-term investment) strategy yields much higher than short-term investment strategies of stocks. Second, it's about the exchange cycle forming the portfolios. The result shows that the rate of return for the portfolio is the best when exchange cycle is 18 months.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.61-76
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• 2022

Based on the concept of advertising expenditure, manufacturing firm performance, and enterprise life cycle, this research conducts the listed Chinese manufacturing listed in 2016-2018 as the research sampling and divides these listed companies into three periods: growth, maturity, and decline. Next, this paper conducts empirical research from three aspects: advertising expenditure or investment and manufacturing firm performance, lag effect of advertising expenditure, and outcome effect and lag effect of advertising investment. It is found that in different stages of manufacturing enterprises, different advertising expenditures will have different impacts on the performance of manufacturing enterprises. In the growth stage, the advertising investment of manufacturing enterprises will significantly affect the performance results of the current period, and there will be the long-term lag effect. In contrast, the mature stage of enterprises' advertising investment has a shorter period of lag effect, while in the recession stage, the mature stage of manufacturing enterprises' advertising investment will have a shorter period of lag effect. The empirical results are not significant. This study provides a reference for manufacturing enterprises in different stages in the decision-making of advertising investment.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.43-49
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• 2019

본 연구는 중국기업의 기업수명주기를 성장기, 성숙기, 쇠퇴기 등 3단계로 구분하여 2011년부터 2017년까지 중국 중소상장기업(SME) 3,750개를 대상으로 공시데이터를 활용하여 기업수명주기별 연구개발투자강도(매출액 대비 연구개발비 총액)가 경영성과(총자산이익률)에 미치는 영향에 대해 실증 분석하였다. 분석결과, 연구개발투자강도(RDS)과 차기(t년도)의 기업 경영성과(ROA)에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었고 기업수명주기에 따라 연구개발투자가 기업의 경영성과에 다르게 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 실증결과는 기업의 연구개발투자와 관련한 전략적 의사결정을 할 때 산업특성 및 기업특성을 고려하여 연구개발투자와 관련한 지출 규모, 자원을 투입 시간 등을 결정하는데 있어서 도움을 줄 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2005

This paper describes the mechanism for new investment to appear in waves of boom and bust causing alternative periods of over and under supply of electricity in Korean market. A system dynamics model was developed to describe the dynamic behavior of new investment in Korean market. The simulation results show the boom and bust cycle in the new investments. When the market price is high, investors decide to build new power plants. However, it takes some delay time to complete new power plants. When the new power plants are being added into the grid, the supply increases and the wholesale price begins to decrease. This causes the cancellation of new power plant or delay the construction. This mechanism causes the boom and bust cycle in new investment.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제60권11호
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• pp.1993-1999
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• 2011

Today, the power utilities is setting on the slow load growth and the aging of power equipment, and then could spend the efforts on the stability of system performance. Asset management may be defined as the process of maximizing corporate profit by maximizing performance and minimizing cost over the entire life cycle of power equipment. Therefore, asset management is great way to fulfill the economic investment and the stability of system performance. This paper presents the application of effective asset managem ent from an economic perspective. A proposed method is considering the life cycle analysis using life cycle cost methodology for hydro-generator during the total life cycle. The life cycle cost methodology include a way to calculating maintenance and operating costs. The proposed method will be expected to play an important role in investment decision making considering economic evaluation.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2022

Purpose - This study investigates the performance of investment strategies incorporating estimated stock market cycle based on a lead-lag relationship between business cycle and stock market cycle, thereby deriving empirical implications on risk management. Design/methodology/approach - The data period ranges from June 1953 to September 2022 and de-trended short rate, term spread, credit spread, stock market volatility are considered as major input variables to estimate business cycle and stock market cycle by applying probit model. Based on the estimated stock market cycle, two types of strategies are constructed and their performance relative to the benchmark is empirically examined. Findings Two types of strategies based on stock market cycle are considered: The first strategy is to long(short) on stocks when stock market stage is expected to be an expansion(a recession), and the second one is to long on stocks(bonds) when expecting an expansion(a recession). The empirical results show that the strategies based on stock market cycle outperforms a simple buy and hold strategy in both in-sample and out-of-sample investigation. Also the out-of-sample evidence suggests that the second strategy which is in line with asset allocation is more profitable than the first one. Research implications or Originality The strategies considered in this study are based on the estimated stock market cycle which only depends on a few easily available financial variables, thereby making easier to establish such a strategy. It implies that investors enhance investment performance by constructing a relatively simple trading strategies if they set their position on stocks or choose which asset class to buy conditioning on stock market cycle.