• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.56-67
• /
• 2012

In the present study, an enhanced subsurface prediction algorithm based on a non-parametric geostatistical model and a history matching technique through Gibbs sampler is developed and the iterative prediction improvement procedure is proposed. The developed model is applied to a simple two-dimensional synthetic case where domain is composed of three different hydrogeologic media with $500m{\times}40m$ scale. In the application, it is assumed that there are 4 independent pumping tests performed at different vertical interval and the history curves are acquired through numerical modeling. With two hypothetical borehole information and pumping test data, the proposed prediction model is applied iteratively and continuous improvements of the predictions with reduced uncertainties of the media distribution are observed. From the results and the qualitative/quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the proposed model is good for the subsurface prediction improvements where the history data is available as a supportive information. Once the proposed model be a matured technique, it is believed that the model can be applied to many groundwater, geothermal, gas and oil problems with conventional fluid flow simulators. However, the overall development is still in its preliminary step and further considerations needs to be incorporated to be a viable and practical prediction technique including multi-dimensional verifications, global optimization, etc. which have not been resolved in the present study.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.46 no.6
• /
• pp.576-584
• /
• 2022

AIS is widely utilized in vessel traffic services for marine traffic safety. In 2021, Korea deployed the high-speed maritime wireless communication system (LTE-Maritime) on the sea following IMO's proposal for the introduction of e-Navigation. In this paper, vessel trajectory data from AIS and LTE-Maritime were used for vessel trajectory prediction to compare and analyze the two systems. The results show that the trajectory prediction error of LTE-Maritime was smaller than that of AIS due to the granular and uniform data provided by LTE-Maritime. Additionally, it was revealed that time interval is the most important factor influencing the errors in trajectory prediction, with the prediction error of LTE-Maritime growing at a slower rate of 17% than AIS. This research contributes to the literature by quantitatively comparing AIS and LTE-Maritime systems for the first time.

• The Journal of Information Systems
• /
• v.31 no.3
• /
• pp.197-220
• /
• 2022

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identifies the demand pattern categorization of repair parts of Automotive After-sales Service(A/S) and proposes a demand prediction model for Auto repair parts using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) of artificial neural networks (ANN). The optimal parts inventory quantity prediction model is implemented by applying daily, weekly, and monthly the parts demand data to the LSTM model for the Lumpy demand which is irregularly in a specific period among repair parts of the Automotive A/S service. Design/methodology/approach This study classified the four demand pattern categorization with 2 years demand time-series data of repair parts according to the Average demand interval(ADI) and coefficient of variation (CV²) of demand size. Of the 16,295 parts in the A/S service shop studied, 96.5% had a Lumpy demand pattern that large quantities occurred at a specific period. lumpy demand pattern's repair parts in the last three years is predicted by applying them to the LSTM for daily, weekly, and monthly time-series data. as the model prediction performance evaluation index, MAPE, RMSE, and RMSLE that can measure the error between the predicted value and the actual value were used. Findings As a result of this study, Daily time-series data were excellently predicted as indicators with the lowest MAPE, RMSE, and RMSLE values, followed by Weekly and Monthly time-series data. This is due to the decrease in training data for Weekly and Monthly. even if the demand period is extended to get the training data, the prediction performance is still low due to the discontinuation of current vehicle models and the use of alternative parts that they are contributed to no more demand. Therefore, sufficient training data is important, but the selection of the prediction demand period is also a critical factor.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.117-122
• /
• 2004

The fatigue life in wheels was predicted by simulating the experimental method using Finite-Element analysis. Based on a high frequency fatigue property, calculations of the stresses in wheels were performed by simulating the rotating bending fatigue test. Wheels made of an aluminum alloy(A356.2) were tested using a bending fatigue tester. Results from bending fatigue test showed a linear correlation between bending moment and stress amplitude. Consequently, Finite-Element calculations were performed by a linear analysis. In order to find stress-cycles curves, spoke parts of wheel were tested using a rotary bending fatigue tester. Also, highly accurate Finite-Element analysis requires regression lines and confidence intervals from these results. In conclusion, if the fatigue data related to the material and manufacturing procedure are reliable, the prediction on fatigue lift in wheels can be carried out with high accuracy.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
• /
• 2002.07a
• /
• pp.102-105
• /
• 2002

A noise reduction technique to reduce background noise in corrupted voice is proposed. The proposed method is based on linear prediction and takes advantages of periodicity of voiced speech. A voiced sound is regarded as a periodic stationary signal in short time interval. Therefore, the current voice signal is correlated with the voice signal delayed by a pitch period. A linear predictor can estimate only the current signal correlated with the delayed signal. Therefore, the enhanced voice can be obtained as output of the linear predictor. Simulation results show that the proposed method is able to reduce the background noise.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
• /
• v.37 no.1
• /
• pp.81-90
• /
• 2017

We have analyzed the performance of 58 kWp photovoltaic (PV) power systems installed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Performance ratio (PR) of 3 PV systems with 3 desert-type PV modules using monitoring data for 1 year showed 85.5% on average. Annual degradation rate of 5 individual modules achieved 0.26%, the regression model using monitoring data for the specified interval of one year showed 0.22%. Root mean square error (RMSE) of 6 big data analysis models for power output prediction in May 2016 was analyzed 2.94% using a support vector regression model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 1996.04a
• /
• pp.67-70
• /
• 1996

The values measured at different time and enumerated sequentially by homogenous interval is called time series. Its goal is to predict values in future by analysing the measured values in past. The stastical approach to time series prediction tend to be by a neural approach with difficulties in expressing the reationship among past data. In neural approach, the preblem is the acquisting of the enough training data in advance. The goal of this paper is that such problem is solved by generating another term as virtual term between terms in time series.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.17 no.6 s.90
• /
• pp.1045-1051
• /
• 2005

For critical structures and application, where a given reliability must be met, it is necessary to account for uncertainties and variability in material properties, structural parameters affecting the corrosion process, in addition to the statistical and decision uncertainties. This paper presents an approach to the fuzzy arithmetic based modeling of the chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement in concrete structures that takes into account the uncertainties in the physical models of chloride penetration into concrete and corrosion of steel reinforcement, as well as the uncertainties in the governing parameters, including concrete diffusivity, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration and critical chloride level for corrosion initiation. The parameters of the models are regarded as fuzzy numbers with proper membership function adapted to statistical data of the governing parameters and the fuzziness of the corrosion time is determined by the fuzzy arithmetic of interval arithmetic and extension principle

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.1429-1440
• /
• 2008

In a meta-analysis combining the results from different clinical trials, it is important to consider the possible heterogeneity in outcomes between trials. Such variations can be regarded as random effects. Thus, random-effect models such as HGLMs (hierarchical generalized linear models) are very useful. In this paper, we propose a HGLM framework for analyzing the binominal response data which may have variations in the odds-ratios between clinical trials. We also present the prediction intervals for random effects which are in practice useful to investigate the heterogeneity of the trial effects. The proposed method is illustrated with a real-data set on 22 trials about respiratory tract infections. We further demonstrate that an appropriate HGLM can be confirmed via model-selection criteria.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.101-120
• /
• 1988

A time series model with Laplacian (double-exponential) marginal distribution, NLAR(2), was proposed by Dewald and Lewis (1985). The special cases of NLAR(2) process and their properties are considered. Extensions to the NLAR(p) is discussed. It is shown that the NLAR(1) satisfies the strong-mixing conditions, hence the model-free prediction interval using the sample quantiles can be obtained.