• 제목/요약/키워드: Interpretation bias

검색결과 52건 처리시간 0.041초

애널리스트 목표가를 활용한 최적 투자의사결정 방안에 관한 연구 (Optimization of Investment Decision Making by Using Analysts' Target Prices)

  • 조수지;김흥규;이기광
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.229-235
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    • 2020
  • Investors aim to maximize the return rate for their own investment, utilizing various information as possible as they can access. However those investors, especially individual investors, have limitations of interpretation of the domain-specific information or even the acquisition of the information itself. Thus, individual investors tend to make decision affectively and frequently, which may cause a loss in returns. This study aims to analyze analysts' target price and to suggest the strategy that could maximize individual's return rate. Most previous literature revealed that the optimistic bias exists in the analysts' target price and it is also confirmed in this study. In this context, this study suggests the upper limit of target rate of returns and the optimal value named 'alpha(α)' which performs the adjustment of proposed target rate to maximize excess earning returns eventually. To achieve this goal, this study developed an optimization problem using linear programming. Specifically, when the analysts' proposed target rate exceeds 30%, it could be adjusted to the extent of 59% of its own target rate. As apply this strategy, the investors could achieve 1.2% of excess earning rate on average. The result of this study has significance in that the individual investors could utilize analysts' target price practically.

Preliminary strong ground motion simulation at seismic stations within nuclear power plant sites in South Korea by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of 2016 Gyeongju earthquake

  • Choi, Hoseon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권7호
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    • pp.2529-2539
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    • 2022
  • Stochastic and an empirical Green's function (EGF) methods are preliminarily applied to simulate strong ground motions (SGMs) at seismic stations within nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in South Korea by an assumed large earthquake with MW6.5 (scenario earthquake) on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake with MW5.5 (mainshock). In the stochastic method, a ratio of spectral amplitudes of observed and simulated waveforms for the mainshock is assumed to be an adjustment factor. In the EGF method, SGMs by the mainshock are simulated assuming SGMs by the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake with MW5.0 (foreshock) as the EGF. To simulate SGMs by the scenario earthquake, a ratio of fault length to width is assumed to be 2:1 in the stochastic method, and SGMs by the mainshock are assumed to be EGF in the EGF method. The results are similar based on a bias of the simulated response spectra by the two methods, and the simulated response spectra by the two methods exceeded commonly standard design response spectra anchored at 0.3 g of NPP sites slightly at a frequency band above 4 Hz, but considerable attention to interpretation is required since it is an indirect comparison.

교통사고 긴급통보시스템 도입을 위한 지불의사액 산정방안 비교분석 (Comparative Analysis of Calculation Methods on Willingness to Pay for Introduction of Emergency-call System)

  • 이윤정;도명식;장택영;한대석
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 가치추정방법의 하나인 조건부 가치측정법(Contingent Valuation Method : CVM)을 이용하여 교통사고 긴급통보시스템 도입을 위한 지불의사액을 산정하고자 하였다. 분석을 위해 이중양분선택법 질문양식을 이용하여 긴급통보시스템에 대한 이용자들의 지불의사액(Willingness to Pay : WTP) 추정방안을 제시하였다. 기존 연구들의 경우 지불의사액 산정에 사용되는 질문 유형별 분석 모델별로 지불유무에 따른 절단데이터가 다르게 처리되고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 이중양분 선택법으로 구성된 절단 데이터를 처리하는 방법으로 모형별 지불의사액의 차이를 비교하였다. 연구에 사용된 설문지는 약 500부 수준으로 응답자의 지역적인 편차(bias)가 반영되지 않도록 온라인과 오프라인에서 동시에 진행하였으며, 연령대별 편차를 고려하기 위해 2010년 인구주택 총 조사 결과를 참조하여 자료를 구성하였다. 최종적으로 더 나은 자료의 해석을 위해 생존분석, 다중회귀분석, 토빗분석 등 다양한 통계기법을 적용하여 결론을 도출하였다.

이야기하기의 행동경제학 (The Behavior Economics in Storytelling)

  • 김경섭;김정래
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2019
  • 이야기 구연 현장에서 전달되는 이야기들은 세련되고 정제된 것들 보다는, 왜곡되고 변질된 채 전승되는 이야기들이 더 많다. 거기다가 구연자의 엉뚱한 해석까지를 텍스트 범주에 포함한다면 문제는 더 복잡해진다. 구연 설화의 경우에는 이야기를 연행하는 구연자의 세계관과 이야기 내용이 불일치하는 경우가 흔히 발생하게 되는데, 이 글은 그 동안 우리가 설화를 읽으면서 지나치고 말았던 부분들을 행동경제학적 관점에서 점검함으로써 설화 읽기 내지는 해석에 새로운 관점을 제기한다. 모든 인간의 합리성이란 제한된 합리성일 수밖에 없다. 제한된 합리성으로 인해 인간은 최선의 선택을 하지 못하고 자신이 충분하다고 생각하는 만족할 만한 수준에서 사고를 멈추고 단순한 모형이나 대략적인 추측에 의존하여 의사결정을 하게 된다. 이 단 순화되는 의사결정 과정에 작용하는 것이 바로 휴리스틱(Heuristic)이다. 휴리스틱은 기존 경험이나 특정 정보만을 이용하기 때문에 의사결정이나 행동에 편향(Bias)이 생기게 된다. 구비문학은 언어 대중의 어림짐작과 사고의 편향성에 기반을 두고 전승되어 온 특징이 있기에, 행동경제학의 휴리스틱과 구비문학을 관련시킬 여지는 충분하다. 이 글은 대중의 사고유형과 행동양식에 대한 행동경제학의 관점을 원용하여, 개인과 대중의 기억을 바탕으로 구연되는 이야기에 대해 휴리스틱의 관점에서 논의했다. 휴리스틱은 화자의 실수, 이야기의 착종, 청중의 반응 등 이야기 구연에서 자주 포착되었지만 본격적으로 논의하기 어려웠던 유의미한 사항들을 어떤 방식으로 다룰 수 있는지도 내포하고 있음을 알 수 있었다.

골다공증 유발 동물모델에서 녹용 추출물의 경구 투여 효과: 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 (The Effects of Oral Administration of Deer Antler Extracts on an Osteoporosis-induced Animal Model: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis)

  • 이정민;김남훈;이은정
    • 한방재활의학과학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.65-81
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    • 2022
  • Objectives This study aimed to assess the effects of oral administration of deer antler extracts on an osteoporosis-induced animal model. We analyzed the results of using deer antler single extracts on animal models with osteoporosis through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We included osteoporosis studies in animal experiments that administrated deer antler extracts orally. We searched the following 13 databases without a language restriction: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Korean Medical Database (KMbase), National Digital Science Library (NDSL), Korean Traditional Knowledge (Koreantk), Oriental Medicine Advanced Searching Integrated System (OASIS), Research Information Sharing Service (RISS), Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), and Koreanstudies Information Service System (KISS). We used Systematic Review Centre for Laboratory Animal Experimentation's risk of bias tool for assessing the methodological quality of the included studies. Results A total of 299 potentially relevant studies were searched and 11 were included for a systematic review. Nine studies used a single deer antler extract. A study compared the effects of single extracts of deer antler and antler glue, while another study compared the effects of three single extracts of deer antler, old antler, and antler glue. For evaluating the intervention effect, bone mineral density (BMD) was measured as the primary outcome, while the histomorphometric indicators of the bone and serum alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin levels were used as the secondary outcome variables. On conducting a meta-analysis of studies on single deer antler extract, BMD was observed to be significantly increased compared to that in control group (standardized mean difference [SMD]=2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.58~2.65; Z=7.75; p<0.00001; I2=56%). As a result of meta-analysis, according to the concentration of deer antler, the group with high concentration showed statistically significantly higher BMD than the group with low concentration (SMD=1.28; 95% CI=0.74~1.82; Z=4.63; p<0.00001; I2=9%). Conclusions The research shows that the deer antler extracts have significant anti-osteoporotic effects on the osteoporosis-induced animal model. However the studies included in this research had a high methodological risk of bias. This indicates the requirement of considerable attention in the interpretation of the study results.

네덜란드 RE;MIND 디자인의 개념적·비평적 사용미학 (The Dutch RE;MIND Design's Conceptual and Critical Aesthetics of Use)

  • 박영태
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2014
  • Aesthetics of use for modern people can be regarded as being weighted toward universal and rational function since it has focused on an 'automation and efficiency' and 'smartness' in terms of technological and human engineering position. Thus, aesthetics of use as an individual agent has remained in minimal level. This study attempts to seek conceptual model of design regarding the behavior of users from the systematization of critical theories about the usability. To do that, 'HERTZAIN TALES' written by Anthony Dune and the concept and system of Droog Design have been used as a core standard. In line with the various experiments by artist groups such as Fluxus, Memphis group and the work of product semantics, and inherent characteristics of Droog design, which has surfaced from the 1990s, concepts that has mentioned in the Hertzain tales have been organized into main texts. By overcoming cognitive bias inherent in the material culture and by overcoming an existing usability based on immateriality and dialectic solution, the autonomy of critical design and instrumentality of Droog design have been systemized. By interpreting the design aspect of 12 pieces that have been submitted to the RE;MIND section, the core of this study, it has been confirmed that conceptual and critical design's aesthetics of use From the interpretation of the design aspect of 12 pieces that have been submitted to the RE;MIND section, the core of this study, it has been confirmed that conceptual and critical design's aesthetics of use has established the autonomy and independence of the behavior of users, created functional articulation of materials and secured new conceptual model and thus, could be an effective methodical clue for creating an emergent design.

Clinical applications and performance of intelligent systems in dental and maxillofacial radiology: A review

  • Nagi, Ravleen;Aravinda, Konidena;Rakesh, N;Gupta, Rajesh;Pal, Ajay;Mann, Amrit Kaur
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제50권2호
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2020
  • Intelligent systems(i.e., artificial intelligence), particularly deep learning, are machines able to mimic the cognitive functions of humans to perform tasks of problem-solving and learning. This field deals with computational models that can think and act intelligently, like the human brain, and construct algorithms that can learn from data to make predictions. Artificial intelligence is becoming important in radiology due to its ability to detect abnormalities in radiographic images that are unnoticed by the naked human eye. These systems have reduced radiologists' workload by rapidly recording and presenting data, and thereby monitoring the treatment response with a reduced risk of cognitive bias. Intelligent systems have an important role to play and could be used by dentists as an adjunct to other imaging modalities in making appropriate diagnoses and treatment plans. In the field of maxillofacial radiology, these systems have shown promise for the interpretation of complex images, accurate localization of landmarks, characterization of bone architecture, estimation of oral cancer risk, and the assessment of metastatic lymph nodes, periapical pathologies, and maxillary sinus pathologies. This review discusses the clinical applications and scope of intelligent systems such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, and deep learning programs in maxillofacial imaging.

부유성 유공충의 유생은 고해양/고기후의 연구에 영향을 미치는가\ulcorner : 1년간의 퇴적물트랩 관찰로부터 (Do Planktonic Foraminifera Juveniles Bias the Paleoceanographic/Paleoclimatic History Interpretation\ulcorner : Short Report of Year-long Trap Result)

  • Im Chul Shin;Byong-Kwon Park;Hi-Il Yi
    • 한국제4기학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 1999
  • 부유성 유공충의 상대적인 양이 고기후 및 고해양환경의 해석에 미치는 영향을 1년 동안 관찰한 퇴적물 포집장치에 함유된 유공충의 연구로 행하여졌다. 본 연구는 저자들이 알고 있는 한 처음으로 행해진 것이다. 총 부유성 유공충의 수, 고기후의 지시자로 사용되는 부유성 유공충 G. bulliodes와 N. dutertrei)의 상대적인 양, 수온, 염도 등은 부유성 유공충 유생의 상대적인 양과 통계적으로 의미 있는 상관관계를 보이지 않는다. 하지만 부유성 유공충 유생의 상대적인 양은 종다양성지수(종 풍성도, 샤논-와이너 지수, 균등도)와 상관관계를 보인다. 이러한 결과는 유생의 양은 종의 상대적인 양에는 영향을 미치지 않으나 종다양성에는 영향을 미침을 의미한다. 따라서 퇴적물 포집장치에서 일년간 관찰한 결과에 의하면 부유성 유공충의 유생을 count 시 제외했을 때 종다양성 지수를 이용한 고기후/고환경해석시 주의 가 요망된다.

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뇌졸중 편마비 환자의 견관절 통증에 대한 추나요법의 효과: 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 (The Effect of Chuna Manual Therapy for Shoulder Pain in Hemiplegic Patients after Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis)

  • 오은미;이은정
    • 한방재활의학과학회지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2020
  • Objectives The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of Chuna manual therapy for shoulder pain in hemiplegic patients after stroke. Methods For a systematic review and meta-analysis, we set a key question in accordance with participants, intervention, comparison, outcome, study design (PICO-SD). we searched for clinical studies that conducted chuna manual therapy for shoulder pain in hemiplegic patients after stroke 7 databases until September 2019. Only randomized controlled trials were chosen. Results Total 14 randomized controlled trials were chosen for systematic review and meta-analysis. 9 studies used efficacy rate as evaluation tool, and 8 used visual analogue scale. Pressure method (壓力型) was used in 11 studies, followed by osteopathy method (整骨型) and wave motion method (波動型) in 9 studies. Chuna manual therapy showed statistically significant pain reduction effect. Through meta analysis, Chuna manual therapy showed significant pain reducing effect except the study with Chuna manual therapy and electroacupuncture compared to electroacupuncture only. Conclusion As a result, Chuna manual therapy showed statistically significant effect in pain reduction. However, almost studies were evaluated in a state of having probable high risk of bias. This suggests that it requires attention to make an interpretation in this study. Furthermore, more clinical research need to be accomplished in the future.

시각언어로서의 교통경찰관복의 디자인특성 연구 - 미국, 영국, 이태리, 프랑스, 한국을 중심으로 - (A Study of the Design Characteristics of the Police Uniform As A Visual Language - Focused on the U.S., England, Italy, France and Korea -)

  • 이정원;금기숙
    • 복식
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    • 제58권7호
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    • pp.13-30
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    • 2008
  • Visual language is 'a form of communication without text'. Visual language is one of the strongest methods to spread knowledge. Uniforms could be interpreted as a symbolic language that establishes order in this complicated modern society by placing identity and responsibility on each members of various different organizations. In light of the above, the purpose of this research paper will be to analyze police uniforms of U.S.A, Great Britain, Italy, France and Korea as a form of visual language and interpreting them in terms of visual design in order to understand the fundamental ideas behind the designs and the effective applications thereof. Upon analysis of traffic police uniforms of each individual county mentioned above by separating each uniform's distinctive design, pattern, color, material and decoration based on visual factor, three characteristics of authority, dynamic functionality and friendliness were derived from comparing and analyzing each country's distinctive uniform design. The traditional unique role of police in our society was to maintain social order as their nature inherently possesses characteristic of authority and preservation, but has since undergone transition in many countries to appeal to the broader public by incorporating friendliness and dynamic functionality. Analyzing police uniforms in terms of visual linguistic sense requires a much more profound process of understanding beyond simple interpretation of configurative shapes. In conclusion, the true purpose of uniforms is to include and portray images of mankind's desire toward expressing ideas like 'mankind's bias toward existence beyond theirselves and the exercise of force through authority' and materializing such ideas into a physical form.