• Title/Summary/Keyword: Internal variable

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LNG Gas Demand Forecasting in Incheon Port based on Data: Comparing Time Series Analysis and Artificial Neural Network (데이터 기반 인천항 LNG 수요예측 모형 개발: 시계열분석 및 인공신경망 모형 비교연구)

  • Beom-Soo Kim;Kwang-Sup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2023
  • LNG is a representative imported cargo at Incheon Port and has a relatively high contribution to the increase/decrease in overall cargo volume at Incheon Port. In addition, in the view point of nationwide, LNG is the one of the most important key resource to supply the gas and generate electricity. Thus, it is very essential to identify the factors that have impact on the demand fluctuation and build the appropriate forecasting model, which present the basic information to make balance between supply and demand of LNG and establish the plan for power generation. In this study, different to previous research based on macroscopic annual data, the weekly demand of LNG is converted from the cargo volume unloaded by LNG carriers. We have identified the periodicity and correlations among internal and external factors of demand variability. We have identified the input factors for predicting the LNG demand such as seasonality of weekly cargo volume, the peak power demand, and the reserved capacity of power supply. In addition, in order to predict LNG demand, considering the characteristics of the data, time series prediction with weekly LNG cargo volume as a dependent variable and prediction through an artificial neural network model were made, the suitability of the predictions was verified, and the optimal model was established through error comparison between performance and estimates.

Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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Patterns of FDG Uptake in Stomach on F-18 FDG Positron Emission Tomography: Correlation with Endoscopic Findings (F-18 FDG Positron Emission Tomography에서 보이는 위(stomach) 섭취 양상의 임상적 의의: 위 내시경 소견과 비교 평가)

  • Chae, Min-Jeong;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Lee, Sang-Woo;Byun, Byung-Hyun;Kim, Sung-Eun;Kim, Yu-Chul;Choi, Chang-Woon;Lim, Sang-Moo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.456-463
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: we often find variable degrees of FDG uptake and patterns in stomach, which can make difficult to distinguish physiologic uptake from pathologic uptake on FDG PET. The purpose of this study was to find out the significant findings of stomach on FDG PET. Materials and Methods: Thirty-eight patients who underwent both FDG PET and endoscopy within one week from Jun. 2003, to Aug. 2004 were included in this study. We reviewed 38 patients (18 for medical check up, 15 for work up of other malignancies, and 5 for the evaluation of stomach lesion). Their mean age was 56 years old (range:$32{\sim}79$), men and women were 28 and 10, respectively. Two nuclear physicians evaluated five parameters on FDG PET findings of stomach with a consensus: 1) visual grades 2) maximum SUV (max.SUV) 3) focal 4) diffuse and S) asymmetric patterns. We correlated the lesions of FDG PET findings of stomach with those of endoscopy. We considered more than equivocal findings on FDG PET as positive. Results: The six of 38 patients were proven as malignant lesions by endoscopic biopsy and others were inflammatory lesions (ulcer in 3, chronic atrophic gastritis in 12, uncommon forms of gastritis in 5), non-inflammatory lesions (n=3), and normal stomach (n=9). By the visual analysis, malignant lesions had higher FDG uptake than the others. The max.SUV of malignant lesions was $7.95{\pm}4.83$ which was significantly higher than the other benign lesions ($2.9{\pm}0.69$ in ulcer, $3.08{\pm}1.2$ in chronic atrophic gastritis, $3.2{\pm}1.49$ in uncommon forms of gastritis (p=0.044)). In the appearance of stomach on FDG PET, malignant lesions were shown focal (5 of 6) and benign inflammatory lesions were shown diffuse (9 of 20) and asymmetric (14 of 20). Benign lesions and normal stomach were shown variable degrees of uptake and patterns. Some cases of benign inflammatory lesions such as ulcer and gastritis were shown focal and mimicked cancerous lesion (4 of 15). Conclusion: Gastric malignant lesions had higher FDG uptake and focal pattern. However, benign inflammatory lesions had moderate degrees of uptake and diffuse and asymmetric patterns rather than focal. It is difficult to differentiate between benign lesions including normal.

A Study on the roof curved ratio and slope of Korean Traditional Wooden Building - Focused on the Central Hall of Buddhist Temple - (전통목조건축물 지붕곡과 기울기에 관한 연구 - 사찰의 주불전을 중심으로 -)

  • Go, Jung-Ju;Lee, Jeong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.3894-3906
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    • 2014
  • The aim of this study was to classify the central Buddhist temple among the state-designated cultural assets, which were measured precisely, into the gable roof buildings and the gambrel roof buildings to analyze the Ang-Goak, Inside waist, ridge ratio, and roof inclination represented on the roof, and prepare basic objective material for the restoration and repair of cultural assets. As a result, as for the relationship between the roof curve and the inclination of the gable roof building and gambrel roof building, the following conclusions could be drawn. First, the Ang-Goak and Inside waist of the gable roof building had a close correlation with the building size, and the internal high pillar existence. In addition, the Ang-Goak and Inside waist were shown in the 7-ryangga structure, which is greater in size than in the 5-ryangga structure. This was found to be related to the building size. Second, the Ang-Goak and Inside waist of the gable roof building has a correlation with each other, and it was found that Inside waist also was large in the building with a larger Ang-Goak. The roof inclination rarely had a connection with variable factors (plane factor, elevation factor, and cross section factor). The sizes of Ang-Goak, Inside waist, and ridge ratio were similar in the outside 1 chulmok and outside 2 chulmok of gongpo but those sizes were relatively larger in outside 3 chulmok. Third, the Ang-Goak and Inside waist of the gambrel roof building moved independently for each building without a correlation with each other, unlike the case of the gable roof building. The front and the side showed a correlation with each other, and in the building with the large curve of the front side, the curve was also large in the sides. Fourth, in the case of the building with a high pillar inside the gambrel roof building, the Ang-Goak and Inside waist were larger. On the other hand, they were smaller in the case of a building without a high pillar. This was found to have a close relationship with the building size. In addition, the ridge ratio has a close connection with the building size and building height. Therefore, the ridge ratio is larger in a high building or large sized building. The roof inclination rarely has a correlation with variable factors, as in the case of the gable roof building.

Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

Psychosocial Characteristics and Quality of Life in Patients with Functional Gastrointestinal Disorder (기능성위장질환 환자들의 정신사회적 특성과 삶의 질)

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Lee, Sang-Yeol;Ryu, Han-Seung;Choi, Suck-Chei;Yang, Chan-Mo;Jang, Seung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to compare psychosocial characteristics of the functional gastrointestinal disorders FGID group, non-FGID group, and control group and determine factors affecting the QOL of patients with FGID. Methods : 135 patients diagnosed with FGID were selected. 79 adults had no observable symptoms of FGID (control group) and 88 adults showed symptoms of FGID (non-FGID group). Demographic factors were investigated. The Korean-Beck Depression Inventory-II, Korean-Beck Anxiety Inventory, Korean-Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, Patient Health Questionnaire-15 and WHO Quality of Life Assessment Instrument Brief Form were used to assess psychosocial factors. A one-way ANOVA was used to compare differences among groups. Pearson correlation test was performed to analyze the correlation of psychosocial factors and QOL of the FGID group. Further, a hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to determine factors affecting the QOL of the FGID group. Results : Between-group differences were not significant in demographic characteristics. Depression (F=48.75, p<0.001), anxiety (F=14.48, p<0.001), somatization (F=24.42, p<0.001) and childhood trauma (F=12.71, p<0.001) were significantly higher in FGID group than in other groups. Social support (F=39.95, p<0.001) and resilience (F=17.51, p<0.001) were significantly lower in FGID group than in other groups. Resilience (β=0.373, p<0.01) was the most important explanatory variable. The explained variance was 47.2%. Conclusions : Significantly more symptoms of depression, anxiety, childhood trauma, and somatization were observed for the FGID group. This group also had less social support, resilience, and quality of life than the non-FGID and control groups. The key factor for quality of life of the FGID group was resilience.

Differentiation of True Recurrence from Delayed Radiation Therapy-related Changes in Primary Brain Tumors Using Diffusion-weighted Imaging, Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast Perfusion Imaging, and Susceptibility-weighted Imaging (확산강조영상, 역동적조영관류영상, 자화율강조영상을 이용한 원발성 뇌종양환자에서의 종양재발과 지연성 방사선치료연관변화의 감별)

  • Kim, Dong Hyeon;Choi, Seung Hong;Ryoo, Inseon;Yoon, Tae Jin;Kim, Tae Min;Lee, Se-Hoon;Park, Chul-Kee;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Sohn, Chul-Ho;Park, Sung-Hye;Kim, Il Han
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : To compare dynamic susceptibility contrast imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging, and susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) for the differentiation of tumor recurrence and delayed radiation therapy (RT)-related changes in patients treated with RT for primary brain tumors. Materials and Methods: We enrolled 24 patients treated with RT for various primary brain tumors, who showed newly appearing enhancing lesions more than one year after completion of RT on follow-up MRI. The enhancing-lesions were confirmed as recurrences (n=14) or RT-changes (n=10). We calculated the mean values of normalized cerebral blood volume (nCBV), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and proportion of dark signal intensity on SWI (proSWI) for the enhancing-lesions. All the values between the two groups were compared using t-test. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine the best predictor of differential diagnosis. The cutoff value of the best predictor obtained from receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was applied to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the diagnosis. Results: The mean nCBV value was significantly higher in the recurrence group than in the RT-change group (P=.004), and the mean proSWI was significantly lower in the recurrence group (P<.001). However, no significant difference was observed in the mean ADC values between the two groups. A multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that proSWI was the only independent variable for the differentiation; the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.6% (11 of 14), 100% (10 of 10), and 87.5% (21 of 24), respectively. Conclusion: The proSWI was the most promising parameter for the differentiation of newly developed enhancing-lesions more than one year after RT completion in brain tumor patients.

A study on the interrelation of influential factors in organizational conflict and organizational commitment (병원종사자의 조직갈등 및 조직몰입에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Hoon;Kim, Han-Joong;Cho, Woo-Hyun;Lee, Hae-Jong;Park, Chong-Yon;Lee, Sun-Hee
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.41-63
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the interrelation of influential factors in organizational conflict and organizational commitment. The data for this study were collected through a self-administered survey with a structured Questionnaire to 1,167 subjects from several nursing staff members, administration staff members and medical technicians of six hospitals. In this analysis frequency test, t-test, ANOVA, hierarchical multiple regression and structural equation model were used. The main findings of this study are as follows. 1. Factors which influence organizational conflict were analyzed. The type of occupation and the year of service were socio-demographic variables which influenced organizational conflict positively. Adjusted R square was 0.03. Perceptions on organizational structure and organizational culture were analyzed with two- level variables that were added. The findings were as follows. Adjusted R square increased to 0.25. The year of service, internal process culture and rational goal culture were positive variables. The design of organizational structure, human relations culture and open system culture were negative variables. 2. Variables which influence organizational commitment were analyzed. Age and the year of service were positive variables, while academic background based on high school education was a negative variable. Adjusted R square was 0.16. Perceptions on organizational structure and organizational culture were analyzed with two-level variables that were added. The findings were as follows. The characteristics of organizational structure, human relations culture and organizational culture were positive variables. Adjusted R square increased to 0.55. The variables of organizational conflict were added in 3 steps. Findings were as follows. The variables of hierarchical conflict showed negative influence and were included in two-level influential variables. Adjusted R square increased to 0.56. 3. Structural equation model was analyzed in order to examine the relation between organizational structure and the variables of organizational culture, organizational conflict and organizational commitment. Thirteen path coefficients out of seventeen path coefficients were significant. Age had negative influence on organizational conflict and positive influence on organizational commitment. The year of service had positive influence on organizational conflict and organizational commitment. The design of organizational structure, human relations culture and open system culture had negative influence on organizational. conflict. They had positive influence on organizational commitment. Internal process culture and rational goal culture had positive influence on organizational conflict. Organizational conflict had negative influence on organizational commitment. The squared multiple correlation of this model was 25.1% in organizational conflict and 52.7% in organizational commitment. The conclusion of this study is as follows. Factors in organizational structure and organizational culture, rather than socio-demographic factors, had a stronger influence on the organizational conflict and organizational commitment of hospitals. In order to decrease organizational conflict, to increase organizational commitment and to maximize the effectiveness of hospital management, it is necessary to understand the overall relation between organizational structure, organizational culture, organizational conflict and organizational commitment, with the effort of improving personalized factors and individual factors of organization management.

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The Relationship between Alcohol Drinking Patterns and Blood Pressure in Some Rural Elderly Aged 60~64 (일부 60~64세 농촌노인에서 음주양상과 혈압과의 관련성)

  • Lee, Moo-Sik;Bae, Jang-Ho;Park, Ki-Rack;Lee, Choong-Won
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to investigate the role of drinking pattern in the relationship of alcohol consumption by face-to-face interview in rural elderly(n=994) aged 60~64 in Dalsung County, April to September in 1996. Pattern of alcohol drinking included drinking status, alcohol drinking at the morning without breakfast, average drinks per day, frequency of drinks per month, quantity of alcohol drinking, kind of preferred alcoholic beverage and duration of alcohol drinking. Blood pressure was measured once in each subject using a portable automatic sphygmomanometer. Difference in means of systolic blood pressure, alcohol drinking status, alcohol drinking at the morning without breakfast, and kind of alcoholic beverage were statistically significant before adjusting covariates, but alcohol drinking status and alcohol drinking at the morning without breakfast were statistically significant after adjusting covariates. And difference in means of diastolic blood pressure, kinds of alcoholic beverage was statistically significant before adjusting covariates, but no variables was significant after adjusting covariates. Model I multiple regression for systolic blood pressure that included average drinks per day as the variable of drink pattern, age, educational attainment and, previous history of cardiovascular disease were statistically significant, and multiple regression for diastolic blood pressure, educational attainment, BMI, and previous history of cardiovascular disease were statistically significant. Model II multiple regression for systolic blood pressure that included drinking patterns variables except average drinks per day, previous history of cardiovascular disease were statistically significant. However, multiple regression for diastolic blood pressure, no variables were significant. So, inconsistent with prior research, a positive relationship was not found between average drinks per day and diastolic and systolic blood pressure. The effect of alcohol drinking patterns on blood pressure has public health as well as clinical relevance. The study should be replicated to determine the reliability of our findings.

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The Impact of Declining Profits on Closures of Pediatric Clinics (소아청소년과 의원의 수익 감소가 폐업에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeong-Yoon Oh;Su-Jin Cho;Hyun-Jung Byun;Choon-Seon Park;Jin-Suk Cho
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2024
  • Background: Korea's population of children and adolescents has decreased by 2.88 million over the past decade and is expected to decline further due to the unprecedented low birth rate. In the fee-for-service compensation system, the decline in the pediatric population relates directly to the profit decrease in the pediatric clinics. This study analyzed whether the worsening profits of pediatric clinics impacted their closure. Methods: We built annual data for pediatric and other department clinics (internal medicine, otolaryngology, and family medicine) using the status of medical institute and health insurance claims data from 2012 to 2022. Then, we analyzed whether institutional variables such as annual profit and regional variables (Herfindahl-Hirschman index, the number of clinics per 100,000, etc.) affected the closure of clinics. The methods used in this study are descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Odds ratios for each variable were estimated by generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results: The closure rate of pediatric clinics was 2.66%-7.04% in 2012-2022, which was consistently higher than those of internal medicine, otolaryngology, and family medicine clinics. The profit gap per institution between the pediatric and the other clinics grew from 126 million won in 2012 to 245 million won in 2019. In the GEE analysis, profit decrease compared to the previous year with lower profit was the main factor that increased the closure of pediatric and other department clinics. After adjusting profit-related variables, the decrease in the pediatric population itself did not relate to the closure of pediatric clinics. The number of pediatric clinics or monopolies also did not affect the closure of pediatric clinics. Conclusion: The worsening profit is the crucial factor for the closure of pediatric clinics, while the pediatric population is decreasing. For this reason, it is necessary to actively seek ways to maintain a stable treatment system for children and adolescents.