• 제목/요약/키워드: Interest rate differential

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Monetary Policy Independence during Reversal Phases of Domestic-Foreign Interest Rate Differentials

  • Kyunghun Kim
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.221-244
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    • 2024
  • This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index.

PRICING CONVERTIBLE BONDS WITH KNOWN INTEREST RATE

  • Kim, Jong Heon
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, using the Black-Scholes analysis, we will derive the partial differential equation of convertible bonds with both non-stochastic and stochastic interest rate. We also find numerical solutions of convertible bonds equation with known interest rate using the finite element method.

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장기소비 위험을 이용한 통화포트폴리오 수익률에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Long-Run Consumption Risk in Foreign Currency Risk Premia)

  • 유원석;손삼호
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

Error Probability Expressions for Frame Synchronization Using Differential Correlation

  • Kim, Sang-Tae;Kim, Jae-Won;Shin, Dong-Joon;Chang, Dae-Ig;Sung, Won-Jin
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.582-591
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    • 2010
  • Probabilistic modeling and analysis of correlation metrics have been receiving considerable interest for a long period of time because they can be used to evaluate the performance of communication receivers, including satellite broadcasting receivers. Although differential correlators have a simple structure and practical importance over channels with severe frequency offsets, closedform expressions for the output distribution of differential correlators do not exist. In this paper, we present detection error probability expressions for frame synchronization using differential correlation, and demonstrate their accuracy over channel parameters of practical interest. The derived formulas are presented in terms of the Marcum Q-function, and do not involve numerical integration, unlike the formulas derived in some previous studies. We first determine the distributions and error probabilities for single-span differential correlation metric, and then extend the result to multispan differential correlation metric with certain approximations. The results can be used for the performance analysis of various detection strategies that utilize the differential correlation structure.

A Grey Correlation Analysis Method for Relationship of the Overseas M&A and Business Growth of Commercial Banks

  • LIU, Xiaohong
    • 한국인공지능학회지
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.13-16
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    • 2019
  • While the Chinese banks have started the impact of foreign banks. At the same time, rising pressure on foreign exchange reserves and appreciation of the renminbi has prompted Chinese banks to go abroad and diversify their risks. The financial crisis of 2008 has caused the continued turbulence of the major financial markets around the world, and the valuation of foreign financial institutions has been drastically shrinking, providing opportunities for Chinese banks to carry out overseas M&A. Based on the overseas M&A status of Chinese commercial banks, this paper sums up the characteristics of the overseas M&A. Then taking a series of overseas M&A conducted by ICBC from 2006 to 2011 as an example, it analyzes the relationship between M&A and performance growth using grey incidence model. The test shows: there is a positive correlation between both overseas M&A and interest rate differential with performance growth of ICBC, and overseas M&A transactions role in promoting the performance growth is significantly higher than the interest rate differential.

Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Changes in Korea

  • Jung, Heonyong;Han, Myunghoon
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.84-88
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    • 2019
  • This paper examines whether the exchange rate respond differently to monetary policy shocks in Korea using regression model. We find an asymmetric response of the monetary policy shocks to the monetary policy shocks in the context of Korea. Over the whole period sample, we do not find the effect of an actual interest rate on exchange rate. But we find that the estimated coefficient on the expected and unexpected change in the policy rate are negative and statistically significant. In the period of monetary policy easing, the estimated coefficient on the expected and unexpected change in the policy rate are negative but not statistically significant. In contrast, the period of monetary policy tightening, the estimated coefficient on the expected and unexpected change in the policy rate are negative and statistically significant.

DISCOUNT BARRIER OPTION PRICING WITH A STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATE: MELLIN TRANSFORM TECHNIQUES AND METHOD OF IMAGES

  • Jeon, Junkee;Yoon, Ji-Hun
    • 대한수학회논문집
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.345-360
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    • 2018
  • In finance, barrier options are options contracts with a payoff that depends on whether the price of the underlying asset hits a predetermined barrier level during the option's lifetime. Based on exotic options and random fluctuations of interest rates in the marketplace, we consider discount barrier options with a stochastic interest rate driven by the Hull-White process. This paper derives the closed-form solutions of the discount barrier option and the discount double barrier option using Mellin transform methods and the PDE (partial differential equation) method of images.

점프 항을 포함하는 이자율 기간구조 모형의 채권 가격결정을 위한 수치적 분석 및 시뮬레이션 (Numerical Analysis and Simulation for the Pricing of Bond on Term-Structure Interest Rate model with Jump)

  • 박기섭
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2024
  • 본 논문에서는 점프 항을 포함하는 이자율 기간구조 모형의 채권 가격을 결정하기 위하여 이토의 보조정리(Ito's Lemma)를 적용하여 채권가격편미분방정식(Partial Differential Bond Price Equation; PDBPE)을 유도한다. PDBPE으로부터, 지수함수에 대한 매클로린 급수 (Maclaurin series; MS)와 적률생성함수(moment-generating function; MGF)를 이용하여 채권 가격의 수치해(Numerical Solution; NS)를 구한다. 그리고 몬테 카르로 시뮬레이션(Monte Carlo Simulation; MCS) 기법을 이용하여 채권의 가격을 결정하기 위한 알고리즘을 제안하고, 시뮬레이션 과정을 통하여 채권의 가격을 결정한다. 수치적 분석을 이용한 채권 가격의 NS와 MCS를 이용하여 얻은 채권 가격의 결과를 비교하기 위하여, NS의 값과 MCS의 값의 비율인 상대오차(Relative Error; RE)를 구한다. 이로부터 얻은 RE가 약 2.2%보다 작음을 확인할 수 있고, 이것은 수치적 분석뿐만 아니라 제안한 알고리즘을 이용해도 채권의 가격을 매우 정확하게 예측할 수 있음을 의미한다. 또한, 지수함수에 대한 MS를 이용하여 얻은 채권 가격의 NS가 MGF를 적용하여 구한 채권 가격의 NS보다 상대적으로 오차가 작다는 것을 확인할 수 있다.

육상이동무선통신에서의 GMSK 2비트 차동검파에 관한 연구 (A Study on GMSK with Two-bit Differential Detection in Land Mobile Radio Communication Systems)

  • 정기석;차균현
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 1990
  • 본 논문에서는 육사이동문선통신의 fast Rayleigh fading 채널에서 GMSK(Gaussian filered Minimum Shift Keying) 2비트 차동검파의 ISI(Intersymbol Interference)가 오류확률에 미치는 영향을 이론적으로 해석하고, 오류확률에 대한 closed form의 표현을 유도 하였다. 수치 결과는 관심의 대상이 되는 예비 변조 Gaussian 저역통과 여파기의 정규화된 대역폭 BT=0.25~0.4에 대하여 페이딩률(fading rate) $f_\rho$T를 매개 변수로 하여 나타내었다. 인접한 첫번째 비트의 ISI만을 고려한 오류확률이 GMSK 2비트 차동검파의 성능을 평가하는데 충분히 정확하다는 것을 확인하였다.

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차분 선부호화 구조를 적용한 LTE-A 상향링크 시스템의 성능분석 (Preformance Analysis of LTE-A System Uplink with Differential Precoding Scheme)

  • 이신;박노윤;김영주
    • 대한전자공학회논문지TC
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    • 제49권5호
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2012
  • LTE 시스템에서는 폐회로 기반의 다중 안테나 기술이 적용되었으며, 차분 코드북을 비롯한 다양한 다중 안테나 기반의 선부호화 기술들이 향상된 LTE (LTE-Advanced) 시스템의 요구조건을 만족시키기 위해 제안되었다. 차분 코드북 설계와 관련하여 이전에 연구된 내용은 준 대각(quasi-diagonal) 단위 행렬 및 구면 캡(spherical cap)에 중점을 두었지만, 이는 동 이득 성질을 만족하지 못한다. 동 이득 성질은 특히 상향 링크에서 첨두 전력 대 평균 전력비 (PAPR)에 상당한 영향을 미치므로 매우 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 각 송신 안테나에 동 이득을 유지하는 성질을 이용한 새로운 차분 코드북을 상향 링크 기반 차분 선부호화 시스템에 적용하고, 이를 통해 비트 오류율(BER)과 첨두 전력 대 평균 전력비를 분석하였다. 특히, 송신기의 비선형 증폭기를 고려하여 다양한 차분 선부호화 기법들의 성능을 분석하였다. 모의 실험을 통해 선형 증폭기를 고려할 경우 기존에 제안된 차분 코드북이 우수한 성능을 보이지만, 비선형 증폭기를 고려할 경우에는 제안하는 차분 코드북의 우수함을 증명하였다.