• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제36권5_3호
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• pp.1037-1051
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• 2020

최근 기후변화로 인해 강도가 높은 태풍의 빈도가 높아짐에 따라 태풍 예측의 중요성이 강조되고 있는 데, 태풍경로예측에 비해 태풍강도예측에 대한 연구는 미비한 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 딥러닝 모델인 Multi-task learning (MTL) 기법을 활용하여 정지궤도기상위성을 활용한 관측자료와 수치예보모델을 융합한 실시간 추정 및 6시간, 12시간 후의 태풍강도예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 2011년에서 2016년까지 북서태평양에서 발생한 총 142개의 태풍을 대상으로 강도 예측 연구를 시행하였다. 한국 최초의 기상위성인 Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI)를 활용하여 태풍의 관측영상을 추출하였고, National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)에서 제공하는 Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)를 활용하여 6시간, 12시간 후의 태풍 주변 대기 및 해양 예측변수를 추출하였다. 본 연구에서는 각 입력자료의 활용성을 정량화 하기 위하여, 위성 기반 태풍관측영상만을 활용한 MTL 모델(Scheme 1)과 수치예보모델을 융합적으로 활용한 MTL 모델(Scheme 2)을 구축하고, 각 모델의 훈련 및 검증 성능을 정량적으로 비교하였다. 실시간 강도 추정의 결과 scheme 1과 scheme 2에서 비슷한 성능을 보이는 반면, 6시간, 12시간 후 태풍강도예측의 경우 scheme 2에서 각각 13%, 16% 개선된 결과를 보였다. 태풍 단계별 예측성능에 대한 분석을 시행한 결과, 저강도 태풍일수록 낮은 평균제곱근오차를 보인 반면, 대부분의 강도 단계에서 평균제곱근편차비는 30% 미만의 값을 보이며 유의미한 검증 결과를 보였다. 이에 본 연구에서 제시한 두가지 모델을 기반으로 2014년 발생한 태풍 HALONG의 시계열검증을 시행하였다. 그 결과, scheme 1의 경우 태풍 초기발달단계에서 태풍의 강도를 약 20 kts가량 과대 추정하는 경향을 보이는데, 환경예측자료를 융합한 scheme 2에서는 오차가 약 5 kts가량으로 과대 추정 경향이 줄어들었다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 현재, 6시간, 12시간 후 강도를 동시에 추출하는 MTL 모델은 Single-tasking model 대비 약 300%의 시간 효율을 보이며, 향후 신속한 태풍 예보 정보 추출에 큰 기여를 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.53-58
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to suggest rainfall threshold for landslide forecasting and warning. For this study, we chose the research area where landslide have occurred. And we performed infiltration-stability analysis with rainfall intensity-duration. As the results of this study, slope stability variation chart with rainfall intensity-duration are established. This kind of chart is believed to be able to be used for forecasting and warning the landslide caused by rainfall.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제54권3호
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• pp.217-223
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• 2018

Overfishing capacity has become a global issue due to over-exploitation of fisheries resources, which result from excessive fishing intensity since the 1980s. In the case of Korea, the fishing effort has been quantified and used as an quantified index of fishing intensity. Fisheries resources of coastal fisheries in the Korean waters of the East Sea tend to decrease productivity due to deterioration in the quality of ecosystem, which result from the excessive overfishing activities according to the development of fishing gear and engine performance of vessels. In order to manage sustainable and reasonable fisheries resources, it is important to understand the fluctuation of biomass and predict the future biomass. Therefore, in this study, we forecasted biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea for the next two decades (2017~2036) according to the changes in fishing intensity using four fishing effort scenarios; $f_{current}$, $f_{PY}$, $0.5{\times}f_{current}$ and $1.5{\times}f_{current}$. For forecasting biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea, parameters such as exploitable carrying capacity (ECC), intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) and catchability (q) estimated by maximum entropy (ME) model was utilized and logistic function was used. In addition, coefficient of variation (CV) by the Jackknife re-sampling method was used for estimation of coefficient of variation about exploitable carrying capacity ($CV_{ECC}$). As a result, future biomass can be fluctuated below the $B_{PY}$ level when the current level of fishing effort in 2016 maintains. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as useful data to suggest direction of establishment of fisheries resources management plan for sustainable use of fisheries resources in the future.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2016

Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.229-237
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• 2011

Today they use a weather radar with spatially high resolution in predicting rainfall intensity and utilizing the information for super short-range forecast in order to make predictions of such severe meteorological phenomena as heavy rainfall and snow. For a weather radar, they use the Z-R relation between the reflectivity factor(Z) and rainfall intensity(R) by rainfall particles in the atmosphere in order to estimate intensity. Most used among the various Z-R relation is $Z=200R^{1.6}$ applied to stratiform rain. It's also used to estimate basic rainfall intensity of a weather radar run by the weather center. This study set out to compare rainfall intensity between the reflectivity of a weather radar and the ground rainfall of ASOS(Automatic Surface Observation System) by analyzing many different cases of heavy rain, analyze the errors of different weather radars and identify their problems, and investigate their applicability to nowcasting in case of severe weather.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.1154-1162
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• 2019

China is undertaking an energy reform from fossil fuels to clean energy to accomplish $CO_2$ intensity (CI) reduction commitments. After hydropower, nuclear energy is potential based on breadthwise comparison with the world and analysis of government energy consumption (EC) plan. This paper establishes a CI energy policy response forecasting model based on national and provincial EC plans. This model is then applied in Fujian Province to predict its CI from 2016 to 2020. The result shows that CI declines at a range of 43%-53% compared to that in 2005 considering five conditions of economic growth in 2020. Furthermore, Fujian will achieve the national goals in advance because EC is controlled and nuclear energy ratio increased to 16.4% (the proportion of non-fossil in primary energy is 26.7%). Finally, the development of nuclear energy in China and the world are analyzed, and several policies for energy optimization and CI reduction are proposed.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 1999년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.127-131
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• 1999

Typhoons were known by contributing to transporting plus heat or kinetic energy from equatorial region to midlatitude region. Due to the strong damage from typhoon, we acknowledged the theoretical study and the importance of accurate forecast about typhoon. In this study, typhoon forecasting system was developed to search the tracks of past typhoons or to display similar track of past typhoon in comparison with the path of current forecasting typhoon. It was programmed using Interactive Data Language(IDL), which was a complete computing environment for the interactive analysis and visualization of data. Typhoon forecasting system was also included satellite image and auxiliary chart. IR, Water Vapor, Visible satellite images helped users analyze an accurate forecast of typhoon. They were further refined the procedures for generating water vapor winds and gave an initial indication of their utility for numerical weather prediction(NWP), in particular for typhoon track forecasting where they could provide important information. They were also available for its utility in typhoon tracer or intensity.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.307-316
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• 1994

기상 자료 미계측 지점의 단기 강우 예보 모형을 개발하였다. 본 연구 모형은 강우 모의 모형, 기상학적 동질성, 그리고 기상 변수 예측 및 추정에 관한 몇 가지 가정을 전제로 하였으며 강우의 예보에는 칼만 필터 기법을 사용하였다. 기존 모형의 방정식은 수운적 크기 분포(HSD)가 강우 강도에 종속이므로 강우량에 대하여 비선형이다. 본 연구 모형의 방정식은 HSD를 구름층 저류량의 함수로 구성함으로써 강우량에 대하여 비선형이다. 본 연구 모형의 방정식은 HSD를 구름층 저류량의 함수로 구성함으로써 강우량에 대하여 선형화되었다. 또한 기상 입력 변수는 경험 모형에 의하여 예측되었다. 본 연구 모형을 대청댐 유형의 호우 사상에 적용하였다. 그 결과 예보 및 실측 강우 강도간의 평균 자승 오차는 0.30~1.01 mm/hr이었다. 이 결과로 미루어 볼 때, 본 연구 모형에 수반된 가정은 합리적이며 본 연구 모형은 기상 자료 미계측 지점에서 강우를 단기 예보하는데 유용하다고 판단된다.

• 대기
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.269-287
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• 2009

CAT (clear-air turbulence) forecasting algorithm, the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system developed at NCAR (national center for atmospheric research), is evaluated with available observations (e.g., pilot reports; PIREPs) reported in South Korea during the recent 5 years (2003-2008, excluding 2005). The GTG system includes several steps. First, 44 CAT indices are calculated in the domain of the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) analysis data with 30 km horizontal grid spacing provided by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration). Second, 10 indices that performed ten best forecasting scores are selected. Finally, 10 indices are combined by measuring the score based on the probability of detection, which is calculated using PIREPs exclusively of moderate-or-greater intensity. In order to investigate the best performance of the GTG system in Korea, various statistical examinations and sensitivity tests of the GTG system are performed by yearly and seasonally classified PIREPs. Performances of the GTG system based on yearly distributed PIREPs have annual variations because the compositions of indices are different from each year. Seasonal forecasting is generally better than yearly forecasting, because selected CAT indices in each season represent meteorological condition much more properly than applying the selected CAT indices to all seasons. Wintertime forecasting is the best among the four seasonal forecastings. This is likely due to that the GTG system consists of many CAT indices related to the jet stream, and turbulence associated with the jet stream can be activated mostly in wintertime under strong jet magnitude. On the other hand, summertime forecasting skill is much less than other seasons. Compared with current operational CAT prediction system (KITFA; Korean Integrated Turbulence Forecasting System), overall performance of the GTG system is better when CAT indices are selected seasonally.

• 감성과학
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.83-94
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• 2014

본 연구는 개인의 사회적 배척 경험과 소속 욕구 수준이 사회적 사건에 대한 정서 예측 및 정서 예측 오류의 크기에 미치는 영향을 검증하기 위하여 실시되었다. 참가자들은 예비 연구를 통해 구성된 8가지 종류의 사회적 사건과 비사회적 사건에 대해 각 사건이 실제로 벌어진다면 얼마나 기쁠지 혹은 괴로울지에 대해 응답하였다. 연구 1에서는 사회적 배척 경험이 많을수록 또는 소속 욕구가 높을수록 비사회적 사건에 비해 사회적 사건이 가지고 올 괴로움을 더욱 부정적으로 예측하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 연구 2에 의하면, 사회적 배척 경험이 많거나 소속 욕구가 높다고 해서 실제로 사회적 부정적 사건을 경험했을 때 더 괴로운 것은 아니라는 것이 밝혀졌다. 본 연구의 결과는 사회적 배척 경험이 많거나 소속 욕구가 높은 개인의 사회적 사건에 대한 민감한 정서 예측이 그들이 사회적 사건으로부터 경험하는 실질적 괴로움이 더 크기 때문이 아니라 사회적 사건으로 인해 겪게 될 미래 정서를 과대 추정하기 때문이라는 것을 시사한다. 본 연구 결과의 함의와 제한점, 추후 연구에 대한 논의가 제시되었다.