• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.1305-1325
• /
• 2008

As index option markets grow recently, many analysts and investors become interested in forecasting the volatility of KOSPI 200 Index to achieve portfolio's goal from the point of financial risk management and asset evaluation. To serve this purpose, we introduce NN and SVM integrated with other financial series models such as GARCH, EGARCH, and EWMA. Moreover, according to the empirical test, Integrating NN with GARCH or EWMA models improves prediction power in terms of the precision and the direction of the volatility of KOSPI 200 index. However, integrating SVM with financial series models doesn't improve greatly the prediction power. In summary, SVM-EGARCH was the best in terms of predicting the direction of the volatility and NN-GARCH was the best in terms of the prediction precision. We conclude with advantages of the integration process and the need for integrating models to enhance the prediction power.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2003.07a
• /
• pp.113-115
• /
• 2003

The electric power industry throughout the world is undergoing considerable changes from the vertically integrated utility structure to the deregulated market. However, the deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper presents fast calculation method for determining contingency ranking using the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI). The probabilistic risk index can be classified into normal weather and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking requiring for security under the deregulated electricity market.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.5 no.3
• /
• pp.145-156
• /
• 2003

As we understand it, Process Capability indices are intended to provide single-number assessments of ability to meet specification limits on quality characteristics of interest. As a consequence of the varied ways in which PCIs are used, there have been two natural lines of research work: $\circled1$ studies on the properties of PCIs and their estimators in many different environments; $\circled2$ construction of new PCIs purporting to have better properties in certain circumstances. The most of existing process capability indices are concerned with the single variable. But, in many cases, a quality characteristic is composed with several factors. In that case, we want to know the integrated process capability of a quality characteristic not those of each factor. In this paper, we proposed a new multivariate system process capability index called $MSPCI:SC_{psk}$ which is the geometric mean of performance measure $C_{psk}$'S, and will be used as the criterion to assess multiple response process designs. Numerical illustration is done for $SC_{psk}$, $\overline{C_p}$(f), Cp, Cpk, Cpm, and Cpsk.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.51 no.2
• /
• pp.453-462
• /
• 2019

Mental workload (MWL) is a major consideration for the user interface design in nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, each MWL evaluation method has its advantages and limitations, thus the evaluation and control methods based on multi-index methods are needed. In this study, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) theory was adopted for assessment of interface designs in NPP based on operators' MWL. An evaluation index system and membership functions were established, and the weights were given using the combination of the variation coefficient and the entropy method. The results showed that multi-index methods such as performance measures (speed of task and error rate), subjective rating (NASA-TLX) and physiological measure (eye response) can be successfully integrated in FCE for user interface design assessment. The FCE method has a correlation coefficient compared with most of the original evaluation indices. Thus, this method might be applied for developing the tool to quickly and accurately assess the different display interfaces when considering the aspect of the operators' MWL.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.111-119
• /
• 2024

In the realm of rock excavation projects, precise estimation of the drilling rate index stands as a pivotal factor in strategic planning and cost assessment. This study introduces and evaluates two pioneering computational intelligence models designed for the prognostication of the drilling rate index, a pivotal parameter with direct implications for cost estimation in rock excavation projects. These models, denoted as the Relevance Vector Regression (RVR) optimized with the Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (IWO) (RVR-IWO model) and the RVR integrated with the Shuffled Frog Leaping algorithm (SFL) (RVR-SFL model), represent a groundbreaking approach to forecasting drilling rate index. The RVR-IWO and RVR-SFL models were meticulously devised to harness the capabilities of computational intelligence and optimization techniques for drilling rate index estimation. This research pioneers the integration of IWO and SFL with RVR, constituting an unprecedented effort in forecasting drilling rate index. The primary objective of this study was to gauge the precision and dependability of these models in forecasting the drilling rate index, revealing significant distinctions between the two. In terms of predictive precision, the RVR-IWO model emerged as the superior choice when compared to the RVR-SFL model, underscoring the remarkable efficacy of the Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm. The RVR-IWO model delivered noteworthy results, boasting a Variance Account for (VAF) of 0.8406, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0114, and a Squared Correlation Coefficient (R²) of 0.9315. On the contrary, the RVR-SFL model exhibited slightly lower precision, yielding an MSE of 0.0160, a VAF of 0.8205, and an R2 of 0.9120. These findings serve to highlight the potential of the RVR-IWO model as a formidable instrument for drilling rate index prediction, particularly within the framework of rock excavation projects. This research not only makes a significant contribution to the realm of drilling engineering but also underscores the broader adaptability of the RVR-IWO model in tackling an array of challenges within the domain of rock engineering. Ultimately, this study advances the comprehension of drilling rate index estimation and imparts valuable insights into the practical implementation of computational intelligence methodologies within the realm of engineering projects.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.46 no.1
• /
• pp.35-45
• /
• 2013

The aim of study is to present how to estimate and use the FRI (Flood Risk Index) for classifying area zones based on regional flooding risk in terms of the integrated flood risk management. To estimate the FRI at a spatial resolution of city/county/town units for the Nakdong River Watershed, the 17 representative flood indexing factors are carefully selected for the three flood indexes, such as PI (Pressure Index), SI (State Index), and RI (Response Index) under the P-S-R (Pressure-State-Response) classification system. Because flood indexing factors are measured at different scales and units, they are transformed into a common domain by the T-Score normalization technique. The entropy weight coefficient method is also applied to calculate the weight of flood indexing factors in order to reduce subjective judgement on the effect of weight coefficients. The three flood indexes of PI, SI, and RI are integrated for an overall value of the FRI to evaluate the flood risk of districts. To examine the practical application of the proposed FRI, the FRI results with/without the weight coefficients are compared with flooding zones of natural disaster risk areas officially announced in 2010. It is expected that the FRI ensured by full verification can make regional protection plans against flooding disasters with respect to causes and characteristics of past floods.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
• /
• v.43 no.2
• /
• pp.5-29
• /
• 2012

Previous performance evaluation focusing on objective data of service agency has the limitations that did not reflect user-centered evaluation. With the expansion of voucher service, importance of perspective of service user such as satisfaction index is increasing. As voucher service has been delivered by the financial burden of government and user, we need the performance evaluation system that reflects the both performance indices to meet the accountability of two stake-holders. So this study focuses on deriving integrated evaluation system developing systems what mixed objective and subjective performance. Data used in this study is collected form 70 social service agencies that deliver voucher service and 1445 service users. Using General Satisfaction Index and Efficiency Index by DEA, this study analysed the correlation between efficiency and satisfaction index, and integrated performance evaluation model is constructed through portfolio map. This study has the following implication. This study theoretically explains the relation of objective performance and subjective performance and gives practical guidance in performance evaluation criterion and interpretation of performance.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.71-91
• /
• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the environmental performance of 29 Chinese provinces by adopting the advanced measurements, integrated pollution intensity index, IPI, which can be computed using Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) techniques. This index has the advantage of accounting for multiple resources used, good outputs produced and pollutants emitted simultaneously. The result obtained using the methodology shows the obvious evidence that provinces located around eastern area of China take relatively low levels and these phenomenons have been clearly observed throughout the sample period 1998~2007. The estimated index can be interpreted that the environmental burden in China has been steadily decreased as economic growth. This paper also tries to figure out the relationship among IPI, income levels, economic structures, the level of environmental regulations and FDI inflow. The estimated relationship between IPI and income per capita predicts improving environmental performance with increasing income levels. This explains the improvement in IPI which is simultaneously observed with income increases. According to the 'pollution haven hypothesis', many researches have been concerned the possibility that a large amount of foreign capital has been invested in China to avoid the strict environmental standards in advanced countries. However, the estimated coefficients in all model specifications take negative sign with IPI and highly statistical significant. This is a indication that there are positive impacts of foreign investments on IPI by adopting clean and high technologies from advanced countries.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.55 no.6
• /
• pp.717-726
• /
• 2022

This study was conducted to assess the geochemical contamination degree of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Sb, and Zn in the soil and water samples from an abandoned gold mine. Enrichment Factor (EF), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), and Pollution Load Index (PLI) were carried out to assess the geochemical contamination degree of the soil samples. Variations of sulfate and heavy metals concentration in water samples were determined to identify the geochemical distribution with respect to the distance from the mine tailing dam. Geochemical pollution indices indicated significant contaminated with As, Cd, Pb, and Zn in the soil samples that areas close to the mine tailing dam, while, Sb showed similar indices in all soil samples. These results indicated that the As, Cd, Pb, and Zn dispersion has occurred via anthropogenic sources, such as mining activities. In terms of water samples, anomalies in the concentrations of As, Cd, Zn, and SO₄^2- was determined at specific area, in addition, the concentrations of the elements gradually decreased with distance. This result implies the heavy metals distribution in water has carried out by the weathering of sulfide minerals in the mine tailing and soil. The study area has been conducted the remediation of contaminated soil in the past, however, the geochemical dispersion of heavy metals was supposed to be occurred from the potential contamination source. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the soil and water is necessary after the completion of remediation.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.6
• /
• pp.75-84
• /
• 2012

PURPOSES : This paper aims to improve the evaluation method of the Level of Service(LOS) for urban streets presented by the current Korean Highway Capacity Manual(KHCM) and suggest its utilization plan as a part of the methods to evaluate the sustainability of a transportation policy. METHODS : This paper carried out a research in 3 steps to develop a new evaluation method. First of all, this paper reviewed the previous studies related to the LOS of urban streets and the socially requested items for a sustainable transportation system. Then this paper derived an index and weight through expert questions to select an evaluation index. Lastly, this paper compared the results according to the existing evaluation methods with the new evaluation methods through case studies. This paper used an Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) for importance analysis and weight selection between new evaluation items and indices, and applied a Grey System Theory(GST) for a synthetic and integrated evaluation between the selected evaluation indices. RESULTS : As a result of evaluating the LOS according to the existing evaluation methods and the integrated evaluation methods using a GST through case studies, it was analyzed that new methods' results are less than or equal to the existing evaluation methods; and as a result of applying a weight between evaluation indices according to AHP, it was noticed that the total score seems to rise more when the LOS in the existing evaluation is calculated lower. It was analyzed that the LOS calculated by reflecting the newly established evaluation items and the importance between indices in this study has difference from the LOS of the existing urban streets. CONCLUSIONS : It is expected that this evaluation method can diagnose the current conditions when establishing a future sustainable traffic system and can be used for the measurement of the sustainability effects of the improvement plans and so on.