• Title/Summary/Keyword: Instability index

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Heavy Rainfall prediction using convective instability index (대류성 불안정 지수를 이용한 집중호우 예측)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Ham, Sook-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is possibility of the heavy rainfall prediction using instability index. The convective instability index using this study is Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE) concerned the growth energy of the storm, Bulk Richardson Number(BRN) concerned the type and strength of the storm, and Sotrm Relative Helicity(SRH) concerned maintenance of the storm. To verify the instability index, the simulation of heavy rainfall case experiment by Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) model(MM5) are designed. The results of this study summarized that the heavy rainfall related to the high instability index and the proper combination of one more instability index made the higher heavy rainfall prediction.

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A Study on Development of Economic Instability Index

  • Do, Jong-Doo;Song, Gyu-Moon;Kim, Tae-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.355-365
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    • 2004
  • Kim et al.. (2003) developed an Economic Instability Index (EII) by using mean squared error (MSE) from the neural network (NN) trained on the 1995 KOSPI. In this paper we study validity of the NN. For this we compare the NN with the well known Box-Jenkins linear auto-regressive processes. Our conclusive understanding of the problem is that the NN provides quite effective EII because it tends to overfit.

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Dynamic Instability Behavior of Diagonally Braced Steel Frames under Seismic Excitation (지진하중을 받는 대각선 철골 중심가새골조의 동적 불안정 거동)

  • Lee, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Jung-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2005.03a
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2005
  • Concentrically braced steel frames are considered as being quite prone to soft-story response due to the degradation in brace compressive resistance after buckling under severe ground motions. When combined with the system P-Delta effects, collapse of the concentrically braced frames by dynamic instability becomes a highly probable. In this study, a new, relatively simple dynamic instability coefficient was proposed for diagonally braced steel frames by considering the strength degradation of the brace after buckling. Nonlinear dynamic analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the proposed index based on simulated ground motions. The analysis results showed that the dynamic instability index proposed predicts the collapse potential more consistently than the conventional one. Dynamic instability was triggered when the index value was close to 0.7.

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Estimation of Voltage Instability Index Using RLS(Recursive Least Square) (RLS(Recursive Least Square)를 이용한 전압안정도 지수 평가)

  • Jeon, Woong-Jae;Lee, Byong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.279-281
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    • 2006
  • A Voltage Instability Predictor(VIP) estimates the proximity of a power system to voltage collapse in real time. Voltage Instability Index(Z-index) from VIP algorithm is estimated using LS(Least Square) method. But this method has oscillations and noise of result due to the system's changing conditions. To suppress oscillations, a larger data window needs to be used. In this paper. I propose the new other method which improves that weakness. It uses RLS(Recursive Least Square) to estimate voltage instability index without a large moving data window so this method is suitable for on-line monitor and control in real time. In order to verify effectiveness of the algorithm using RLS method, the method is tested on HydroQuebec system in real time digital simulator(HYPERSIM).

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Characteristics of Atmospheric Stability Index of Airmass thunderstorm day at Busan (부산지역 기단성 뇌우 발생일의 대기안정도지수 특성)

  • Jeon, Byung Il
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to research the relation between airmass thunderstorm and stability index with 12 years meteorological data(1990~2001) at Busan. Also We used the analysed stability indices from University of Wyoming to consider airmass thunderstorm. The frequency of thunderstorm occurrence during 12 years was 156 days(annual mean 13days). The airmass thunderstorm frequency was 14 days, most of those occurrence were summertime(59%). And occurrence hour of airmass thunderstorm was distributed from 1300LST to 2100LST broadly. The highest forecast index for airmass thunderstorm at Busan was K index, the lowest forecast index was SWEAT index. The forecasting of thunderstorms is based primary on the concepts of conditional instability, convective instability, and forced lifting of air near the surface. Instability is a critical factor in severe weather development. Severe weather stability indices can be a useful tool when applied correctly to a given convective weather situation.

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Stock market stability index via linear and neural network autoregressive model (선형 및 신경망 자기회귀모형을 이용한 주식시장 불안정성지수 개발)

  • Oh, Kyung-Joo;Kim, Tae-Yoon;Jung, Ki-Woong;Kim, Chi-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.335-351
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    • 2011
  • In order to resolve data scarcity problem related to crisis, Oh and Kim (2007) proposed to use stability oriented approach which focuses a base period of financial market, fits asymptotic stationary autoregressive model to the base period and then compares the fitted model with the current market situation. Based on such approach, they developed financial market instability index. However, since neural network, their major tool, depends on the base period too heavily, their instability index tends to suffer from inaccuracy. In this study, we consider linear asymptotic stationary autoregressive model and neural network to fit the base period and produce two instability indexes independently. Then the two indexes are combined into one integrated instability index via newly proposed combining method. It turns out that the combined instability performs reliably well.

Dynamic instability of functionally graded material plates subjected to aero-thermo-mechanical loads

  • Prakash, T.;Ganapathi, M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.435-450
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    • 2005
  • Here, the dynamic instability characteristics of aero-thermo-mechanically stressed functionally graded plates are investigated using finite element procedure. Temperature field is assumed to be a uniform distribution over the plate surface and varied in thickness direction only. Material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent and graded in the thickness direction according to simple power law distribution. For the numerical illustrations, silicon nitride/stainless steel is considered as functionally graded material. The aerodynamic pressure is evaluated based on first-order high Mach number approximation to the linear potential flow theory. The boundaries of the instability region are obtained using the principle of Bolotin's method and are conveniently represented in the non-dimensional excitation frequency-load amplitude plane. The variation dynamic instability width is highlighted considering various parameters such as gradient index, temperature, aerodynamic and mechanical loads, thickness and aspect ratios, and boundary condition.

Reliability and Validity of the Side-lying Instability and Prone Instability Tests in Patients with Lumbar Segmental Instability

  • Kim, Bo-Eon;Lee, Kwan-Woo;Park, Dae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2021
  • PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to conduct inter-rater and intra-rater reliability tests in patients with low back pain (LBP) using the prone instability test (PIT) and side-lying instability test (SIT). We have analyzed the Korean version Oswestry disability index (K-ODI) correlations and radiograph finding (RF) for validity. METHODS: Individuals (n = 51) (mean age of 40.27 ± 13.28) with LBP for at least over a week were recruited, together with two participating physical therapist examiners. The measurement consisted of PIT, PST, K-ODI, and RF. Sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value, negative predictive value, prevalence index, agreement %, Cohen's kappa, and prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK) were calculated. The PIT and SIT were compared with RF for validity analysis, while PIT, SIT, K-ODI, and RF were calculated for the correlation analysis. RESULTS: The intra-rater reliability test measured for the PIT (kappa = .79, PABAK = .88) and SIT (kappa = .73, PABAK = .84), and inter-rater reliability test measured for the SIT (kappa = .80, PABAK = .88) showed good agreements. The PIT (Sn = .65, Sp = .63) and SIT validities (Sn = .68, Sp = .70) were compared with RF, showing a significant correlation in PIT and RF (r = .69), SIT and RF (r = .73), and PIT and K-ODI (r = .53). CONCLUSION: The SIT is a more comfortable position test than the PIT in patients. Both PIT and SIT have acceptable reliability and validity.

Effects of High-harmonic Components on the Rayleigh Indices in Multi-mode Thermo-acoustic Combustion Instability

  • Song, Chang Geun;Yoon, Jisu;Yoon, Youngbin;Kim, Young Jin;Lee, Min Chul
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.518-525
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents the characteristics of non-fundamental multi-mode combustion instability and the effects of high-harmonic components on the Rayleigh criterion. Phenomenological observations of multi-harmonic-mode dynamic pressure waves regarding the intensity of harmonic components and the source of wave distortion have been explained by introducing examples of second- and third-order harmonics at various amplitudes. The amplitude and order of the harmonic components distorted the wave shapes, including the peak and the amplitude, of the dynamic pressure and heat release, and consequently the temporal Rayleigh index and its integrals. A cause-and-effect analysis was used to identify the root causes of the phase delay and the amplification of the Rayleigh index. From this analysis, the skewness of the dynamic pressure turned out to be a major source in determining whether multi-mode instability is driving or damping, as well as in optimizing the combustor design, such as the mixing length and the combustor length, to avoid unstable regions. The results can be used to minimize errors in predicting combustion instability in cases of high multi-mode combustion instability. In the future, the amount of research and the number of applications will increase because new fuels, such as fast-burning syngases, are prone to generating multi-mode instabilities.

Study on Mechanism of Combustion Instability in a Dump Gas Turbine Combustor (모형가스터빈 연소기내 연소불안정성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Ho;Lee, Yeon-Ju;Jeon, Chung-Hwan;Jang, Yeong-Jun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.1284-1291
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    • 2002
  • Combustion instabilities are an important concern associated with lean premixed combustion. Laboratory-scale dump combustor was used to understand the underlying mechanisms causing combustion instabilities. Experiments were conducted at atmospheric pressure and sound level meter was used to track the pressure fluctuations inside the combustor. Instability maps and phase-resolved OH chemiluminescence images were obtained at several conditions to investigate the mechanism of combustion instability and relations between pressure wave and heat release rate. It showed that combustion instability was susceptible to occur at higher value of equivalence ratio (>0.6) as the mean velocity was decreased. Instabilities exhibited a longitudinal mode with a dominant frequency of ∼341.8 Hz, which corresponded to a quarter wave mode of combustor. Heat release and pressure waves were in-phase when instabilities occurred. Rayleigh index distribution gave a hint about the location where the strong coherence of pressure and heat release existed. These results also give an insight to the control scheme of combustion instabilities. Emission test revealed that NOx emissions were affected by not only equivalence ratio but also combustion instability.