• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.560-565
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• 2016

In this study, we empirically scrutinize the relationship between short selling transactions and stock price behaviors using the stock market data in Korea during the period from January 2005 to March 2016. We chose the short selling volume ratio (SVR), stock lending volume ratio (LVR), and stock lending open interest ratio (LIR) as variables of the short selling trading activities. We construct portfolios based on the percentile of the short selling volume ratio during the sample period; upper-10%-SVR portfolio, upper-25%-SVR portfolio, upper-50%-SVR portfolio. We estimate the monthly firm-specific return and monthly skewness of the daily firm-specific returns of each portfolio. The firm-specific return or skewness is specified as a dependent variable and the short selling activities as explanatory variables. The results show that all of the statistically significant estimates of the short selling activities for the firm-specific returns are negative and that all of the statistically significant estimates of the skewness of the short selling activities are positive. These results support the hypothesis that short selling activities cause the stock price to decrease.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.49
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• pp.43-57
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• 1999

The recent trend is that risk management has more and more its importance. Neverthless, Korea's risk management is not developed. Even most banks does gap, duration in ALM for risk management, development and operation of VaR stressed at BIS have elementary level. In the case of Fallon and Pritsker, Marshall, gamma model is superior to delta model and Monte Carlo Simulation is improved at its result, as sample number is increased. And, nonparametric model is superior to parametric model. In the case of Korea's stock portfolio, VaR of Monte Carlo Simulation and Full Variance Covariance Model is less than that of Diagonal Model. The reason is that VaR of Full Variance Covariance Model is more precise than that of Diagonal Model. By the way, in the case of interest rate, result of monte carlo simulation is less than that of delta-gamma analysis on 95% confidence level. But, result of 99% is reversed. Therefore, result of which method is not dominated. It means two fact at forecast on volatility of stock and interest rate portfolio. First, in Delta-gamma method and Monte Carlo Simulation, assumption of distribution affects Value at Risk. Second, Value at Risk depends on test method. And, if option price is included, test results will have difference between the two. Therefore, If interest rate futures and option market is open, Korea's findings is supposed to like results of other advanced countries. And, every banks try to develop its internal model.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.84-94
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a method to provide the distribution of option price under local volatility model when market-provided implied volatility data are given. The local volatility model is one of the most widely used smile-consistent models. In local volatility model, the volatility is a deterministic function of the random stock price. Before estimating local volatility surface (LVS), we need to estimate implied volatility surfaces (IVS) from market data. To do this we use local polynomial smoothing method. Then we apply the Dupire formula to estimate the resulting LVS. However, the result is dependent on the bandwidth of kernel function employed in local polynomial smoothing method and to solve this problem, the proposed method in this paper makes use of model averaging approach by means of bandwidth priors, and then produces a robust local volatility surface estimation with a confidence interval. After constructing LVS, we price barrier option with the LVS estimation through Monte Carlo simulation. To show the merits of our proposed method, we have conducted experiments on simulated and market data which are relevant to KOSPI200 call equity linked warrants (ELWs.) We could show by these experiments that the results of the proposed method are quite reasonable and acceptable when compared to the previous works.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.89-97
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• 2012

This paper considers a manufacturer with a two-station make-to-stock and make-to-order serial production system. The MTS facility produces a single type of component and provides components for the MTO facility that produces customized products. In addition to the internal demand from the MTO facility, the MTS facility faces demands from the spot market with the option of to accept or reject each incoming demand. This paper addresses a joint component inventory rationing and batch production control which maximizes the manufacturer's profit. Using the Markov decision process model, we investigate the structural properties of the optimal inventory rationing and batch production policy, and present two types of heuristics. We implement a numerical experiment to compare the performance of the optimal and heuristic policies and a simulation study to examine the impact of the stochastic process variability on the inventory rationing and batch production control.

• Proceedings of the Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.163-170
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• 2002

In the form of B2C transaction, making an on-line order by using the website increases rapidly. An off-line order at the whole sale outlets is geometrically increasing. However, it is so true that both types of market are showing a tendency to become computerization. As to apply this type of computerized B2B transaction to this kind of large scale wholesale outlets, the most important fact to be considered is that there must have no data error. In addition to this, an accurate counting of actual stock is a precondition to decide a suitable amount of production and a timely delivery of goods. In this study, reducing elements of the risk that may create a difference In between actual stock and that in the computer, the integrated B2B ordering system is designed by taking actual cases an example in order to manage the information for a sale, which is conducted by various system in the large scale wholesale outlets such as E-mart, Carefour or the same kinds.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.23 no.58
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• pp.101-111
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• 2000

This study uses financial statements on several hundred companies listed in the Korea Stock Market to analyze trends in inventory turnover ratios and examine the effect of inventory performance on the profitability of the companies. Statistical analyses are done to determine if there have been significant changes in inventory turnover ratios and how turnover ratio pattern varied by factors such as industry, size of the firm, and the effectiveness of previous inventory management. Inventory turnover ratios decreased for four consecutive years and were found to vary by industry. Also it is proved that there was statistically significant relationship between the size of the firm and the average level of inventory as a fraction of sales. Regression analysis is done to investigate the relationship between the inventory management performance and profitability of companies and it is found that improvement in inventory level affected profitability of the companies.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2010.11b
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• pp.807-809
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• 2010

글로벌 금융위기를 거치면서 각국의 증시가 같은 방향으로 움직이는 동조화 현상이 뚜렷이 나타나고 있다. 주가 동조화 현상은 주로 시계열 분석 기법을 적용하여 연구가 이루어져 왔는데, 본 연구에서는 네트워크 분석 기법을 적용하고자 한다. 시가 총액이 큰 주요 국가들의 대표적 주가 지수들을 대상으로 상관계수를 구하고, 이러한 상관계수를 가중치로 설정하여 구성한 네트워크를 분석한다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.21 no.46
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• pp.167-172
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• 1998

Under serious inflation, there has been a considerable gap between book value and market value. To improve this gap, asset revaluation has been implementing in Korea. This paper investigates firms' motives of asset revaluation. The result of empirical tests may be summarized as follow : The corporations listed in Korea Stock Exchange revaluate their assets in order to borrow money owing to good financial structures. Based on this result, the asset revaluation law would be necessary to review.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.13-22
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• 2003

Simulations on the nonlinear partial differential equation derived from Black-Scholes equation with transaction costs are performed. These numerical experiments using finite element methods are applied to KOSPI200 in 2002 and the option prices obtained with transaction costs are closer to the real prices in market than the prices used in Korea Stock Exchange.