• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1998.04a
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• pp.157-164
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• 1998

An elasto-plastic stochastic finite element method is developed to evaluate the probability of failure of the underground structure. The Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria is adopted for yield condition. The material properties such as the elastic modulus and the cohesion are assumed to be statistically independent random variables which are modeled as spatial stochastic fields. The displacements around the excavated area and the probability of the failure are examined by varying the coefficient of variance for each variables. It is found that the developed procedure can provide the proper probabilistic information about the failure of the underground structure

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.25-36
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• 1996

We have analyzed the reliability of failure models In grid topology circuit switched networks. These models are grid topology circuit_ switched networks. and each node transmits packets to object node using flooding search routing method. We hypothesized that the failure of each link Is Independent. We have analyzed for the performance estimation of failure models It using joint probability method to the reliability of a small grid topology circuit switched network. and compared analytic output with simulated output. Also. We have evaluated the reliability of networks using call blocking Probability occurred in circuit switched networks.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.85 no.3
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• pp.381-391
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• 2023

The seismic performance of the tall building equipped with a tuned mass damper (TMD) considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects is well studied in the literature. However, these studies are performed on the nominal model of the seismic-excited structural system with SSI. Hence, the outcomes of the studies may not valid for the actual structural system. To address the study gap, the reliability theory as a useful and powerful method is utilized in the paper. The present study aims to carry out reliability analyses on tall buildings equipped with TMD under near-field pulse-like (NFPL) ground motions considering SSI effects using a subset simulation (SS) method. In the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, TMD device, foundation, soil, and near-field pulse-like ground motions, the numerical studies are performed on a benchmark 40-story building and the failure probabilities of the structures with and without TMD are evaluated. Three types of soils (dense, medium, and soft soils), different earthquake magnitudes (M_w = 7,0. 7,25. 7,5 ), different nearest fault distances (r = 5. 10 and 15 km), and three seismic performance levels of immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS), and collapse prevention (CP) are considered in this study. The results show that tall buildings built near faults and on soft soils are more affected by uncertainties of the structural and ground motion models. Hence, ignoring these uncertainties may result in an inaccurate estimation of the maximum seismic responses. Also, it is found the TMD is not able to reduce the failure probabilities of the structure in the IO seismic performance level, especially for high earthquake magnitudes and structures built near the fault. However, TMD is significantly effective in the reduction of failure probability for the LS and CP performance levels. For weak earthquakes and long fault distances, the failure probabilities of both structures with and without TMD are near zero, and the efficiency of the TMD in the reduction of failure probabilities is reduced by increasing earthquake magnitudes and the reduction of fault distance. As soil softness increases, the failure probability of structures both with and without TMD often increases, especially for severe near-fault earthquake motion.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.111-128
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• 2014

The stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the response surface method (RSM) are often used for structural reliability analysis, especially for reliability problems with implicit performance functions. This paper aims to compare these two methods in terms of fitting the performance function, accuracy and efficiency in estimating probability of failure as well as statistical moments of system output response. The computational procedures of two response surface methods are briefly introduced first. Then their capabilities are demonstrated and compared in detail through two examples. The results indicate that the probability of failure mainly reflects the accuracy of the response surface function (RSF) fitting the performance function in the vicinity of the design point, while the statistical moments of system output response reflect the accuracy of the RSF fitting the performance function in the entire space. In addition, the performance function can be well fitted by the SRSM with an optimal order polynomial chaos expansion both in the entire physical and in the independent standard normal spaces. However, it can be only well fitted by the RSM in the vicinity of the design point. For reliability problems involving random variables with approximate normal distributions, such as normal, lognormal, and Gumbel Max distributions, both the probability of failure and statistical moments of system output response can be accurately estimated by the SRSM, whereas the RSM can only produce the probability of failure with a reasonable accuracy.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1995.11a
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• pp.566-568
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• 1995

An optimal routing method using hysteresis binary neurons with link failure probability is proposed in this paper. The link failures in computer networks can degrade the performance of the entire networks. We assume the time between successive link failures is exponentially distributed with parameter ${\lambda}$ and the failures are independent. The link failure probability is used for neural networks to find the shortest paths of given source-destination pairs. By using the probability of link failures and hysteresis binary neurons we implement an optimal routing method that can takes routes by coping with link failures.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.981-988
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• 2023

A seismic event caused an accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, which further resulted in simultaneous accidents at several units. Consequently, this incident has aroused great interest in the safety of nuclear power plants worldwide. A reasonable safety evaluation of such an external event should appropriately consider the correlation between SSCs (structures, systems, and components) and the probability of failure. However, a probabilistic safety assessment in current nuclear industries is performed conservatively, assuming that the failure correlation between SSCs is independent or completely dependent. This is an extreme assumption; a reasonable risk can be calculated, or risk-based decision-making can be conducted only when the appropriate failure correlation between SSCs is considered. Thus, this study analyzed the effect of the failure correlation of SSCs on the safety of the system to realize rational safety assessment and decision-making. Consequently, the impact on the system differs according to the size of the failure probability of the SSCs and the AND and OR conditions.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.401-409
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• 2020

Seismic fragility assessments include a procedure to combine the random variables of response and capacity to produce the relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. The evaluation of the failure probability of simultaneous multiple failures of two or more components assumes that the failure probability of each component is independent of those of the others. However, a correlation is expected to exist because several random factors have the same cause. The multiple-failure probability can differ depending on this correlation and may be unconservative without considering the seismic correlation. Therefore, a practical methodology for fragility assessment should be evaluated using the seismic correlation and correlation coefficient for each random variable. In this study, several random variables were selected for numerical evaluation of the correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient was then compared with each variable and the combined variables. The correlation coefficient using simplified and complex models were also compared to determine and analyze the differences between each of the approaches.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.141-148
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• 2020

For the important safety system, two or more units of identical equipment or redundant components with similar function were installed to prevent abnormal failure. If the failure probability of such equipment is independent, this redundancy could increase the system safety remarkably. However, if the failure of each component is highly correlated by installing in a structure or experiencing an earthquake event, the expected redundancy effect will decrease. Therefore, the seismic correlation of the equipment should be evaluated quantitatively for the seismic probabilistic safety assessment. The correlation effect can be explained in the procedure of constructing fragility curves. In this study, several methodologies to quantify the seismic correlation in the failure probability calculation for multiple components were reviewed and two possible ways considering the realistic situation were selected. Simple examples were tested to check the applicability of these methods. The conversion method between these two methods was suggested to render the evaluation using the advantages of each method possible.