• 제목/요약/키워드: Independence and identical distribution

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Frequency analysis of nonidentically distributed large-scale hydrometeorological extremes for South Korea

  • Lee, Taesam;Jeong, Changsam;Park, Taewoong
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.537-537
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    • 2015
  • In recent decades, the independence and identical distribution (iid) assumption for extreme events has been shown to be invalid in many cases because long-term climate variability resulting from phenomena such as the Pacific decadal variability and El Nino-Southern Oscillation may induce varying meteorological systems such as persistent wet years and dry years. Therefore, in the current study we propose a new parameter estimation method for probability distribution models to more accurately predict the magnitude of future extreme events when the iid assumption of probability distributions for large-scale climate variability is not adequate. The proposed parameter estimation is based on a metaheuristic approach and is derived from the objective function of the rth power probability-weighted sum of observations in increasing order. The combination of two distributions, gamma and generalized extreme value (GEV), was fitted to the GEV distribution in a simulation study. In addition, a case study examining the annual hourly maximum precipitation of all stations in South Korea was performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results of the simulation study and case study indicate that the proposed metaheuristic parameter estimation method is an effective alternative for accurately selecting the rth power when the iid assumption of extreme hydrometeorological events is not valid for large-scale climate variability. The maximum likelihood estimate is more accurate with a low mixing probability, and the probability-weighted moment method is a moderately effective option.

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EXTENSIONS OF SEVERAL CLASSICAL RESULTS FOR INDEPENDENT AND IDENTICALLY DISTRIBUTED RANDOM VARIABLES TO CONDITIONAL CASES

  • Yuan, De-Mei;Li, Shun-Jing
    • 대한수학회지
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    • 제52권2호
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    • pp.431-445
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    • 2015
  • Extensions of the Kolmogorov convergence criterion and the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequalities from independent random variables to conditional independent ones are derived. As their applications, a conditional version of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong law of large numbers and a result on convergence in $L^p$ for conditionally independent and conditionally identically distributed random variables are established, respectively.

CONDITIONAL CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A SEQUENCE OF CONDITIONAL INDEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES

  • Yuan, De-Mei;Wei, Li-Ran;Lei, Lan
    • 대한수학회지
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2014
  • A conditional version of the classical central limit theorem is derived rigorously by using conditional characteristic functions, and a more general version of conditional central limit theorem for the case of conditionally independent but not necessarily conditionally identically distributed random variables is established. These are done anticipating that the field of conditional limit theory will prove to be of significant applicability.