• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impulse-Response Analysis

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The Effects of International Finance Market Shocks and Chinese Import Volatility on the Dry Bulk Shipping Market (국제금융시장의 충격과 중국의 수입변동성이 건화물 해운시장에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.263-280
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    • 2011
  • The global financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, has put the world economy into the recession with financial market turmoil. I tested whether variables were cointegrated or whether there was an equilibrium relationship. Also, Generalized impulse-response function (GIRF) and accumulation impulse-response function (AIRF) may be used to understand and characterize the time series dynamics inherent in economical systems comprised of variables that may be highly interdependent. Moreover, the IRFs enables us to simulate the response in freight to a shock in the USD/JPY exchange rate, Dow Jones industrial average index, Dow Jones volatility, Chinese Import volatility. The result on the cointegration test show that the hypothesis of no cointergrating vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector reveals that the increases of USD/JPY exchange rate have negative relations with freight. The result on the impulse-response analysis indicate that freight respond negatively to volatility, and then decay very quickly. Consequently, the results highlight the potential usefulness of the multivariate time series techniques accounting to behavior of Freight.

The effect of Consumer Price, Interest Rate and Sales Performance on the KOSPI (소비자물가와 금리, 매출실적이 종합주가지수에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Yang, Seung-Kwon;Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

The Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Economic Growth: Centering The U. S. (재정분권화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구: 미국의 경우를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Won Ick
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2012
  • Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

Transient Response Analysis and Compensation of the Second Order System with OIne PHP Real Zero

  • Byung-Moon kwon;Ryu, Hee-Seb;Kwon, Oh-Jyu
    • Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.262-267
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, the magnitude of undershoot and overshoot in a prototype second order system with one positive real zero is computed by the analytic methods. Also, it will be shown that the peak times of the undershoot and overshoot can be calculated using the impulse and step response of the second order system. Three different cases are investigated: underdamped(p<ζ<1), critically damped(ζ=1) and overdamped(ζ>1) cases. We deal with the undamped(ζ=0) case as a special case of the underdamped. And a compensation method is proposed to reduce undershoots of the nonmininmun phase system using feedforward compensator.

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A Comparison on the Resistance and characteristics of Transient response of Grounding Systems under Surge Currents (서지 전류에 의한 접지계의 과도응답 특성 및 접지저항 비교)

  • Shin, D.H.;Kim, Y.;Jung, Chul-Hee;Cho, Dae-Hoon;Kim, Pil-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.11b
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    • pp.222-225
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents the surges response of the grounding systems using frequency domain electromagnetic field analysis software package. The frequency and time domain performance of a building grounding systems subjected to a lighting strike is described and discussed. The computed scalar potentials is presented graphically as a function of spatial coordinates. A double exponential lighting surge current is injected at one corner or the building grounding systems. Time-variant response of rod, mesh and kit grounding systems under impulse currents have been obtained. This paper deals with the results of studies on the time variation of ground resistance in three grounding systems.

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Transient Response Analysis of a Comb Type Bridge Expansion Joint due to Travelling Wheel Impact (차륜주행충격에 의한 빗살형 교량 신축이음장치 구조물의 과도진동해석)

  • 최영휴;김현욱;안영덕
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 1997
  • In this paper we derive relations which describe the geometry and kinematics of contact between the travelling wheel and stepped comb joint. From which we can obtain the impulse, impulsive force and its time interval due to travelling wheel impact which can not be taken from Carter's model or Newland and Cassidy's. The calculated transient responses of the comb joint structure to travelling wheel impact reveals that the proposed wheel contact model and Carter's give very similar results but Newland Cassidy's model make a quite different results from the others.

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Study on Lead-Lag Relationship between Individual Spot and Futures of Communication Service Industries: Focused on KT and SK Telecom (통신서비스 업종 개별주식 현물과 선물 간 선도-지연 효과: 한국통신과 SK텔레콤을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Joo Il
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2015
  • We examine the information transmission between the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index, based on the returns data offered by the Korea Exchange. The data includes daily return data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2014. Utilizing a dynamic analytical tool-the VAR model, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition have been implemented. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index precede and have explanatory power the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot However the results also identified a greater causality and explanatory power of the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot over the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that the KT Futures Index show immediate response to the KT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Also the SKT Futures Index show immediate response to the SKT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis shows that the changes of return of the KT Spot and SKT Spot are dependent on those of the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. This implies that returns on the KT Spot and SKT Spot have a significant influence over returns on the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. It contributes to the understanding of market price formation function through analysis of detached the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index.

An Empirical Study on Mutual Influence between Economic Index and Distribution Industry in Korean (한국 유통산업이 한국 경제에 미치는 상호영향력에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • YIM, Byung-Jin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series. Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876. Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.

Analysis of a fixed source-to-receiver underwater acoustic communication channel parameters in shallow water (송수신기가 고정된 천해 수중음향통신 채널 매개변수 해석)

  • Bae, Minja;Park, Jihyun;Yoon, Jong Rak
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.494-510
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    • 2019
  • Underwater acoustic communication channel parameters consist of impulse response, delay spreading, scattering function, coherence bandwidth, frequency selective fading, coherence time and time variant magnitude fading statistics on which communication system modem and channel coding are designed. These parameters are influenced by sound velocity profile, platform motion and sea surface roughness in given acoustical oceanography condition. In this paper, channel model based on phasor, channel simulator, measurement and analysis method of channel parameters are given in a fixed source-to-receiver system and the parameters are analyzed using shallow water experimental data. For two different source-to-receiver ranges of 300 m and 600 m, the parameters are characterized by three multipaths such as a direct, a surface reflection path with time variant scattering and a bottom reflection path. The results present a channel modelling method of a fixed source source-to-receiver system, channel parameters measurement and analysis methods and a system design and performance assessment method in shallow water.

Analysis of the Relationship between House Price, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Variables (주택가격, 소득불평등 및 거시경제변수간의 관계분석)

  • Kwon, Sun-Hee;Hyun, Seong-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.