• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact Simulation

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Outlook of Discharge for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed Using A1B Climate Change Scenario Based RCM and SWAT Model (A1B기후변화시나리오 기반 RCM과 SWAT모형을 이용한 대청댐 및 용담댐 유역 유출량 전망)

  • Park, Jin-Hyeog;Kwon, Hyun-Han;No, Sun-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.929-940
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    • 2011
  • In this study, the future expected discharges are analyzed for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed in Geum River watershed using A1B scenario based RCM with 27 km spatial resolutions from Korea Meteorological Agency and SWAT model. The direct use of GCM and RCM data for water resources impact assessment is practically hard because the spatial and temporal scales are different. In this study, the problems of spatial and temporal scales were settled by the spatial and temporal downscaling from watershed scale to weather station scale and from monthly to daily of RCM grid data. To generate the detailed hydrologic scenarios of the watershed scale, the multi-site non-stationary downscaling method was used to examine the fluctuations of rainfall events according to the future climate change with considerations of non-stationary. The similarity between simulation and observation results of inflows and discharges at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was respectively 90.1% and 84.3% which shows a good agreement with observed data using SWAT model from 2001 to 2006. The analysis period of climate change was selected for 80 years from 2011 to 2090 and the discharges are increased 6% in periods of 2011~2030. The seasonal patterns of discharges will be different from the present precipitation patterns because the simulated discharge of summer was decreased and the discharge of fall was increased.

UE Measurement Based Compressed Mode in WCDMA (WCDMA 시스템에서 단말 측정에 의한 압축 모드 방법)

  • 김선명;장원학;조영종;임재성
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.7A
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    • pp.814-827
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    • 2004
  • The compressed mode is used to perform inter-frequency and inter-system handover in WCDMA. The instantaneous transmit power is increased in the compressed frame in order to keep the QoS(Quality of Service) unaffected by the reduced processing gain. Furthermore, since the inner loop power control is not active during the transmission gap and the effect of interleaving is decreased, a higher Eb/No target is required, which directly affects the system performance. Due to the impact on performance, the compressed mode should be activated by the RNC(Radio Network Controller) only when there is real need to execute an inter-frequency or inter-system handover. However, 3GPP does not define the method that decides the compressed mode activation. In order to reduce performance degradation, there is need the decision method. In this paper, we consider a combined cell structure in which some neighbor cells have a frequency the same as serving cell and the others have a different frequency or system. Under consideration, we analyze the effect of the compressed mode on the WCDMA forward link performance. In order to avoid performance degradation, we propose an UE(User Equipment) measurement method that can restrict the activation area of the compressed mode of UE that does not need it and evaluate its performance by simulations. Analytical results show that the use of the compressed mode affects the performance degradation. And simulation results show that proposed method leads to better performance.

A Study on the Effect of Ground-based GPS Data Assimilation into Very-short-range Prediction Model (초단기 예측모델에서 지상 GPS 자료동화의 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Hee;Ahn, Kwang-Deuk;Lee, Hee-Choon;Ha, Jong-Chul;Lim, Eunha
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.623-637
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    • 2015
  • The accurate analysis of water vapor in initial of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is required as one of the necessary conditions for the improvement of heavy rainfall prediction and reduction of spin-up time on a very-short-range forecast. To study this effect, the impact of a ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)-Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) on very-short-range forecast are examined. Data assimilation experiments of GPS-PWV data from 19 sites over the Korean Peninsula were conducted with Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) included "Hot Start" as very-short-range forecast system. The GPS total water vapor was used as constraint for integrated water vapor in a variational humidity analysis in KLAPS. Two simulations of heavy rainfall events show that the precipitation forecast have improved in terms of ETS score compared to the simulation without GPS-PWV data. In the first case, the ETS for 0.5 mm of rainfall accumulated during 3 hrs over the Seoul-Gyeonggi area shows an improvement of 0.059 for initial forecast time. In other cases, the ETS improved 0.082 for late forecast time. According to a qualitative analysis, the assimilation of GPS-PWV improved on the intensity of precipitation in the strong rain band, and reduced overestimated small amounts of precipitation on the out of rain band. In the case of heavy rainfall during the rainy season in Gyeonggi province, 8 mm accompanied by the typhoon in the case was shown to increase to 15 mm of precipitation in the southern metropolitan area. The GPS-PWV assimilation was extremely beneficial to improving the initial moisture analysis and heavy rainfall forecast within 3 hrs. The GPS-PWV data on variational data assimilation have provided more useful information to improve the predictability of precipitation for very short range forecasts.

Analysis of the Effect of Temperature on the Pesticide Efficacy and Simulation of the Change in the Amount of Pesticide Use (온도가 농약효과에 미치는 영향분석 및 농약사용량 예측 모의실험)

  • Mo, Hyoung-ho;Kang, Ju Wan;Cho, Kijong;Bae, Yeon Jae;Lee, Mi-Gyung;Park, Jung-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2016
  • Pest population density models are very important to monitor the initial occurrence and to understand the continuous fluctuation pattern of pest in pest management. This is one of the major issues in agriculture because these predictions make pesticides more effective and environmental impact of pesticides less. In this study, we combined and predicted the mortality change of pest caused by pesticides with temperature change and population dynamic model. Sensitive strain of two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch) with kidney bean leaf as host was exposed to mixed acaricide, Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen and organotin acaricide, Azocyclotin, at 20, 25, 30, and $35^{\circ}C$, respectively. There was significant difference in mortality of T. urticae among pesticides and temperatures. We used DYMEX to simulate population density of T. urticae and predicted that the initial management time and number of chemical control would be changed in the future with climate change. There would be implications for strategies for pest management and selection process of pesticide in the future corresponding climate change.

Study of Effectiveness of Signal Preemption Strategy Depending on Train Speed at Intersections Near Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings (철도건널목 인근 신호교차로에서의 우선신호 전략 비교분석(열차속도를 중심으로))

  • Jo, Han-Seon;Kim, Won-Ho;O, Ju-Taek;Sim, Jae-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.2 s.95
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2007
  • Because the prime objective of the current preemption methods at signalized intersections near highway-railroad grade crossings(IHRGCs) is to clear the crossing, secondary objectives such as safe pedestrian crossing time and minimized delay often are given less consideration or are ignored completely during the preemption. Under certain circumstances state-of-the-practice traffic signal preemption strategies may cause serious pedestrian safety and efficiency problems at IHRGCs. An improved transition preemption strategy(ITPS) that is specifically designed to improve intersection performance while maintaining or improving the current level of safety was developed by Cho and Rilett. Even if the new transition preemption strategy improved both the safety and efficiency of IHRGCs, the performance of the strategy is affected by train speed. Understanding the impact of this factor is essential in order to implement ITPS. In this paper, the effects of train speed were analyzed using a VISSIM simulation model which was calibrated to field conditions. It was concluded that the delay is affected more by train speed than the transitional preemption strategy and the safety of the intersection is not affected by train speed once an advanced preemption warning time(APWT) is equal to or greater than 90 seconds.

Grain Yield Response of CERES-Barley Adjusted for Domestic Cultivars to the Simultaneous Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and CO2 Concentration (기온, 강수량, 이산화탄소농도 변화에 따른 CERES-Barley 국내품종의 종실수량 반응)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Roh, Jae-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.312-319
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    • 2013
  • Our understanding of the sensitivities of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide, temperature, and water is limited, which makes it difficult to fully utilize crop models in assessing the impact of climate change on future agricultural production. Genetic coefficients of CERES-Barley model for major domestic cultivars in South Korea (Olbori at Suwon, Albori at Milyang, Saessalbori at Iksan, and Samdobori at Jinju) were estimated from the observed data for daily weather and field trials for more than 10 years by using GenCalc in DSSAT. Data from 1997-2002 annual crop status report (Rural Development Administration, RDA) were used to validate the crop coefficients. The sitecalibrated CERES-Barley model was used to perform crop growth simulation with the 99 treatments of step change combinations in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration with respect to the baseline climate (1981-2010) at four sites. The upper boundary corresponds to the 2071-2100 climate outlook from the RCP 8.5 scenario. The response surface of grain yield showed a distinct pattern of model behavior under the combined change in environmental variables. The simulated grain yield was most sensitive to $CO_2$ concentration, least sensitive to precipitation, and showing a variable response to temperature depending on cultivar. The emulated impacts of response surfaces are expected to facilitate assessment of projected climate impacts on a given cultivar in South Korea.

Development of a Chinese cabbage model using Microsoft Excel/VBA (엑셀/VBA를 이용한 배추 모형 제작)

  • Moon, Kyung Hwan;Song, Eun Young;Wi, Seung Hwan;Oh, Sooja
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.228-232
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    • 2018
  • Process-based crop models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production. These models are implemented in procedural or object oriented computer programming languages including FORTRAN, C++, Delphi, Java, which have a stiff learning curve. The requirement for a high level of computer programming is one of barriers for efforts to develop and improve crop models based on biophysical process. In this study, we attempted to develop a Chinese cabbage model using Microsoft Excel with Visual Basic for Application (VBA), which would be easy enough for most agricultural scientists to develop a simple model for crop growth simulation. Results from Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research (SPAR) experiments under six temperature conditions were used to determine parameters of the Chinese cabbage model. During a plant growing season in SPAR chambers, numbers of leaves, leaf areas, growth rate of plants were measured six times. Leaf photosynthesis was also measured using LI-6400 Potable Photosynthesis System. Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry (FvCB) model was used to simulate a leaf-level photosynthesis process. A sun/shade model was used to scale up to canopy-level photosynthesis. An Excel add-in, which is a small VBA program to assist crop modeling, was used to implement a Chinese cabbage model under the environment of Excel organizing all of equations into a single set of crop model. The model was able to simulate hourly changes in photosynthesis, growth rate, and other physiological variables using meteorological input data. Estimates and measurements of dry weight obtained from six SPAR chambers were linearly related ($R^2=0.985$). This result indicated that the Excel/VBA can be widely used for many crop scientists to develop crop models.

Necessity of Climbing Lane on SMART Highway and its Design Guidelines (SMART Highway 오르막차로 설치 필요성 및 기준 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Gu;Kim, Young Chun;Sim, Dae Young;Lee, Yong Mun;Kim, Jong Won;Kim, Heung Rae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.473-486
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to review whether climbing lane installment is needed by analyzing the impact that standard trucks have on traffic according to vertical alignment at SMART highway, and if climbing lanes are required to propose truck speed change curves based on slope length. We used VISSIM simulation model to obtain the speed change of the standard truck on uphill roads. The standard truck on climbing lanes was set for 100kg/kW (170lb/hp) with the entry speeds set and analyzed by 90, 100, and 110 km/h considering the future speed limit of trucks. The results of the research show that under SMART highway circumstance, the 1 and 2% vertical alignment is not needed at the climbing lane but 3% vertical alignment is necessary. In order to install the climbing lane at 3% vertical alignment, the speed change curve of truck depending on slope length of 90, 100, and 110km/h of entry speed is proposed.

Investigating Remotely Sensed Precipitation from Different Sources and Their Nonlinear Responses in a Physically Based Hydrologic Model (다른 원격탐사 센서로 추출한 강우자료의 이질성과 이에 의한 비선형유출반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

Evolution of Agrometeorology at the Global Level (농업기상학의 역사)

  • Sivakumar, M.V.K.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.127-139
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    • 2004
  • Agricultural meteorology has advanced during the last 100 years from a descriptive to a quantitative science using physical and biological principles. The agricultural community is becoming more aware that using climate and weather information will improve their profitability and this will no doubt increase the demand for agrometeorological services. Hence it is timely that the needs and perspectives for agrometeorology in the 21$^{21}$ Century are grouped under two major headings: agrometeorological services for agricultural production and agrometeorological support systems for such services. Emphasis must be placed on the components of such support systems comprising of data, research, policies and training/education/extension. As Monteith (2000) mentioned, food supplies ultimately depend upon the skill with which farmers ran exploit the potential of good weather and minimize the impact of bad weather. Recent developments in instrumentation, data management systems, climate prediction, crop modelling, dissemination of agrometeorological information etc., provide agrometeorologists the tools necessary help the farmers improve such skills. The future for operational applications of agricultural meteorology appears bright and such applications could contribute substantially to promote sustainable agriculture and alleviate poverty.