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Research on APC Verification for Disaster Victims and Vulnerable Facilities (재난약자 및 취약시설에 대한 APC실증에 관한 연구)

  • Seungyong Kim;Incheol Hwang;Dongsik Kim;Jungjae Shin;Seunggap Yong
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aims to improve the recognition rate of Auto People Counting (APC) in accurately identifying and providing information on remaining evacuees in disaster-vulnerable facilities such as nursing homes to firefighting and other response agencies in the event of a disaster. Methods: In this study, a baseline model was established using CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) models to improve the algorithm for recognizing images of incoming and outgoing individuals through cameras installed in actual disaster-vulnerable facilities operating APC systems. Various algorithms were analyzed, and the top seven candidates were selected. The research was conducted by utilizing transfer learning models to select the optimal algorithm with the best performance. Results: Experiment results confirmed the precision and recall of Densenet201 and Resnet152v2 models, which exhibited the best performance in terms of time and accuracy. It was observed that both models demonstrated 100% accuracy for all labels, with Densenet201 model showing superior performance. Conclusion: The optimal algorithm applicable to APC among various artificial intelligence algorithms was selected. Further research on algorithm analysis and learning is required to accurately identify the incoming and outgoing individuals in disaster-vulnerable facilities in various disaster situations such as emergencies in the future.

Analyzing Changes in Spatial Extent of Influences from a Resource Recovery Facility in the Aspect of Housing Prices - A Case Study on the Nowon Facility in Seoul using Hedonic Price Model - (주택가격에 대한 자원회수시설 영향권 변화에 대한 연구 - 헤도닉 가격 모형을 이용한 노원자원회수시설에 대한 사례 -)

  • Kim, Hyunkyung;Park, Kyung Nan;Sohn, Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2024
  • This study focuses on identifying the impacts of the Nowon resource recovery facility in Seoul, Korea, on the real transaction price of apartments in the neighboring areas between 2006 and 2022, and the spatial extent of the impact. Resource recovery facilities, which generate electricity and heating energy while disposing of waste, are typical unwanted facilities that have a negative impact on neighboring property prices. As direct landfilling of household waste is banned in Seoul from 2026 and nationwide from 2030, the demand for the expansion of waste incineration facilities, including resource recovery facilities, is expected to increase rapidly. In addition, social disputes related to the decline in neighboring property prices are expected to increase. This study analyses the impact of the Nowon resource recovery facility on surrounding apartment prices over a 17-year period since 2006 using hedonic price models for apartments, and finds that the Nowon resource recovery facility consistently has a negative impact on nearby apartment prices, the spatial extent of the impact is at least 1,000 meters from the facility, and the intensity of the negative impact weakens as the distance from the facility increases. The results of this study differ from recent studies finding that the spatial extent of the impact of resource recovery facilities in Seoul on surrounding property prices is limited within 500~600 meters, suggesting that a broader approach is needed to systematically manage social conflicts that are expected to increase with the growing social demand for resource recovery facilities.

A Study on Antecedents of Ethical Leadership of Power Retailers, : Focusing on the Relationship between Discount Stores and Their Suppliers (대형 유통업체 윤리적 리더십의 선행변수에 관한 연구 : 할인점과 공급업체 간 관계를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.59-92
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    • 2012
  • With accumulated research evidence, there is little doubt that leadership behavior is related to a wide variety of positive individual and organizational outcomes. Indeed, leadership behavior has been empirically linked to increased employee satisfaction, organizational commitment, extra effort, turnover intention, organizational citizenship behavior, and overall employee performance. Although leadership behavior has been linked to a number of positive organizational outcomes, research regarding the antecedents of such behavior is limited. Especially there is little research dealing with the antecedents of inter-organizational leadership behavior. This study interests in inter-organizational ethical leadership among marketing channel members. In both the mass media and the academic association, there has been a surge in interest in the ethical and unethical behavior of leaders. Although the corporate scandals in recent years may explain much of the mass media and popular focus, academics' interest has been limited by evidence that ethical leadership behavior is associated with both positive and negative inter-organizational processes and performances. This study tried to contribute to this body of knowledge by examining antecedents of ethical leadership. Ethical leadership is defined "the demonstration of normatively appropriate conduct through personal actions and interpersonal relationships, and the promotion of such conduct to followers through two-way communication, reinforcement, and decision-making." Ethical leaders not only inform individuals of the behefits of ethical behavior and the cost of inappropriate behavior, such leaders also set clear standards and use rewards and fair and balanced punishment to hold followers accountable for their ethical conduct. Despite the assume importance and prominence of ethical leadership among organizations, there are still many questions relating to its antecedents and consequences. One is whether the likelihood of an leading organization being perceived as an ethical leader among other following organizations in marketing channels can be predicted using its characteristics and inter-organizational relationship maintenance skills. Identifying trait and skill antecedents will aid in the development of strategies for selecting and developing ethical leaders and determining the best means to reinforce ethical behaviors. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of three categorized variables on ethical leadership of channel leader. To be concrete, this study develops a model of the antecedents of three conceptually distinct forms of channel leader characteristics, such as organizational traits, inter-organizational relationship maintenance strategies, and supplier management strategies, and tests the hypothesized differential effects on ethical leadership of marketing channel leaders. The reason why this study deals with discount store channel is that there is very strong inter-dependence between a discount store and its suppliers. Their strong inter-dependence makes their relationship as the relationship between a leader and suppliers and creates an atmosphere that leadership occur without difficulty. The research model is as follows. For the purpose of empirical testing, 295 respondents of suppliers of discount store channel in Korea were surveyed. The procedures included scale reliability, and discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than .70. This study conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. All items loaded significantly on their respective constructs(with the lowest t-value being 15.2), providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted(AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than .70. The AVE of each construct was greater than .50. This study tested research model using Partial Least Square(PLS). The estimation of the structural equation model revealed an acceptable fit of the model to the data($r^2$=.851). Thus, This study concluded that the model fit was considered acceptable. The results of PLS are as follows. The results indicated that conscientiousness, openness, conflict management, social networks, training, fair reward had positive effects on ethical leadership of channel leaders. On the other hand, emotional insecure had negative effect and agreeableness, assurance, and inter-organizational communication had no significant effect on supply chain leadership.

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Significance Analysis of Facility Fires Though Spatial Econometrics Assessment (공간계량분석 방법에 따른 시설물 화재 발생 유의성 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2020
  • Recently, large and small fires have been happening more often in Korea. Fire is one of the most frequent disasters along with traffic accidents in korean cities, and this frequency is closely related to the land use and the type of facilities. Therefore, in this study, the significance of fires was analyzed by considering land use, facility types, human and social factors and using 10 years of fire data in Jinju city. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis, SLM (Spatial Lag Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model) using space weights, were compared and analyzed considering the location of the fire and each factor, then a statistical model with high suitability was presented. As a result, LISA analysis of spatial distribution patterns of fires in Jinju city was conducted, and it was proved that the frequency of fires was high in the order as follow, central commercial area, industrial area and residential area. Multiple regression analysis was performed by integrating demographic, social, and physical variables. Therefore, the three models were compared and analyzed by applying spatial weighting to the derived factors. As a result of the significance test, the spatial error model was analyzed to be the most significant. The facilities that have the highest correlation with fire occurrence were second type neighborhood facilities, followed by detached house, first type neighborhood facilities, number of households, and sales facilities. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant data to identify factors and manage fire safety in urban areas. Also, through the analysis of the standard deviation ellipsoid, the distribution characteristics of each facility in the residential area, industrial area, and central commercial area among the use areas were analyzed. In, the second type neighborhood facility with the highest fire risk was concentrated in the center. The results of these studies are expected to be used as useful data for identifying factors and managing fire safety in urban areas.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

An Analysis of the Moderating Effects of User Ability on the Acceptance of an Internet Shopping Mall (인터넷 쇼핑몰 수용에 있어 사용자 능력의 조절효과 분석)

  • Suh, Kun-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.27-55
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    • 2008
  • Due to the increasing and intensifying competition in the Internet shopping market, it has been recognized as very important to develop an effective policy and strategy for acquiring loyal customers. For this reason, web site designers need to know if a new Internet shopping mall(ISM) will be accepted. Researchers have been working on identifying factors for explaining and predicting user acceptance of an ISM. Some studies, however, revealed inconsistent findings on the antecedents of user acceptance of a website. Lack of consideration for individual differences in user ability is believed to be one of the key reasons for the mixed findings. The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) and several studies have suggested that individual differences in ability plays an moderating role on the relationship between the antecedents and user acceptance. Despite the critical role of user ability, little research has examined the role of user ability in the Internet shopping mall context. The purpose of this study is to develop a user acceptance model that consider the moderating role of user ability in the context of Internet shopping. This study was initiated to see the ability of the technology acceptance model(TAM) to explain the acceptance of a specific ISM. According to TAM. which is one of the most influential models for explaining user acceptance of IT, an intention to use IT is determined by usefulness and ease of use. Given that interaction between user and website takes place through web interface, the decisions to accept and continue using an ISM depend on these beliefs. However, TAM neglects to consider the fact that many users would not stick to an ISM until they trust it although they may think it useful and easy to use. The importance of trust for user acceptance of ISM has been raised by the relational views. The relational view emphasizes the trust-building process between the user and ISM, and user's trust on the website is a major determinant of user acceptance. The proposed model extends and integrates the TAM and relational views on user acceptance of ISM by incorporating usefulness, ease of use, and trust. User acceptance is defined as a user's intention to reuse a specific ISM. And user ability is introduced into the model as moderating variable. Here, the user ability is defined as a degree of experiences, knowledge and skills regarding Internet shopping sites. The research model proposes that the ease of use, usefulness and trust of ISM are key determinants of user acceptance. In addition, this paper hypothesizes that the effects of the antecedents(i.e., ease of use, usefulness, and trust) on user acceptance may differ among users. In particular, this paper proposes a moderating effect of a user's ability on the relationship between antecedents with user's intention to reuse. The research model with eleven hypotheses was derived and tested through a survey that involved 470 university students. For each research variable, this paper used measurement items recognized for reliability and widely used in previous research. We slightly modified some items proper to the research context. The reliability and validity of the research variables were tested using the Crobnach's alpha and internal consistency reliability (ICR) values, standard factor loadings of the confirmative factor analysis, and average variance extracted (AVE) values. A LISREL method was used to test the suitability of the research model and its relating six hypotheses. Key findings of the results are summarized in the following. First, TAM's two constructs, ease of use and usefulness directly affect user acceptance. In addition, ease of use indirectly influences user acceptance by affecting trust. This implies that users tend to trust a shopping site and visit repeatedly when they perceive a specific ISM easy to use. Accordingly, designing a shopping site that allows users to navigate with heuristic and minimal clicks for finding information and products within the site is important for improving the site's trust and acceptance. Usefulness, however, was not found to influence trust. Second, among the three belief constructs(ease of use, usefulness, and trust), trust was empirically supported as the most important determinants of user acceptance. This implies that users require trustworthiness from an Internet shopping site to be repeat visitors of an ISM. Providing a sense of safety and eliminating the anxiety of online shoppers in relation to privacy, security, delivery, and product returns are critically important conditions for acquiring repeat visitors. Hence, in addition to usefulness and ease of use as in TAM, trust should be a fundamental determinants of user acceptance in the context of internet shopping. Third, the user's ability on using an Internet shopping site played a moderating role. For users with low ability, ease of use was found to be a more important factors in deciding to reuse the shopping mall, whereas usefulness and trust had more effects on users with high ability. Applying the EML theory to these findings, we can suggest that experienced and knowledgeable ISM users tend to elaborate on such usefulness aspects as efficient and effective shopping performance and trust factors as ability, benevolence, integrity, and predictability of a shopping site before they become repeat visitors of the site. In contrast, novice users tend to rely on the low elaborating features, such as the perceived ease of use. The existence of moderating effects suggests the fact that different individuals evaluate an ISM from different perspectives. The expert users are more interested in the outcome of the visit(usefulness) and trustworthiness(trust) than those novice visitors. The latter evaluate the ISM in a more superficial manner focusing on the novelty of the site and on other instrumental beliefs(ease of use). This is consistent with the insights proposed by the Heuristic-Systematic model. According to the Heuristic-Systematic model. a users act on the principle of minimum effort. Thus, the user considers an ISM heuristically, focusing on those aspects that are easy to process and evaluate(ease of use). When the user has sufficient experience and skills, the user will change to systematic processing, where they will evaluate more complex aspects of the site(its usefulness and trustworthiness). This implies that an ISM has to provide a minimum level of ease of use to make it possible for a user to evaluate its usefulness and trustworthiness. Ease of use is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the acceptance and use of an ISM. Overall, the empirical results generally support the proposed model and identify the moderating effect of the effects of user ability. More detailed interpretations and implications of the findings are discussed. The limitations of this study are also discussed to provide directions for future research.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Korea Brassica Genome Project: Current Status and Prospective (배추 유전체열구의 현황과 전망)

  • Choi, Su-Ryun;Park, Jee-Yong;Park, Beom-Seok;Kim, Ho-Il;Lim, Yong-Pyo
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 2006
  • Brassica rape is an important species used as a vegetable, oil, and fodder worldwide. It is related phylogenically to Arabidopsis thaliana, which has already been fully sequenced as a model plant. The 'Multinational Brassica Genome Project (MBGP)'was launched by the international Brassica community with the aim of sequencing the whole genome of B. rapa in 2003 on account of its value and the fact that it has the smallest genome among the diploid Brassica. The genome study was carried out not only to know the structure of genome but also to understand the function and the evolution of the genes comprehensively. There are two mapping populations, over 1,000 molecular markers and a genetic map, 2 BAC libraries, physical map, a 22 cDHA libraries as suitable genomic materials for examining the genome of B. rapa ssp. pekinensis Chinese cabbage. As the first step for whole genome analysis, 220,000 BAC-end sequences of the KBrH and KBrB BAC library are achieved by cooperation of six countries. The results of BAC-end sequence analysis will provide a clue in understanding the structure of the genome of Brassica rapa by analyzing the gene sequence, annotation and abundant repetitive DHA. The second stage involves sequencing of the genetically mapped seed BACs and identifying the overlapping BACs for complete genome sequencing. Currently, the second stage is comprises of process genetic anchoring using communal populations and maps to identify more than 1,000 seed BACs based on a BAC-to-BAC strategy. For the initial sequencing, 629 seed BACs corresponding to the minimum tiling path onto Arabidopsis genome were selected and fully sequenced. These BACs are now anchoring to the genetic map using the development of SSR markers. This information will be useful for identifying near BAC clones with the seed BAC on a genome map. From the BAC sequences, it is revealed that the Brassica rapa genome has extensive triplication of the DNA segment coupled with variable gene losses and rearrangements within the segments. This article introduces the current status and prospective of Korea Brassica Genome Project and the bioinformatics tools possessed in each national team. In the near future, data of the genome will contribute to improving Brassicas for their economic use as well as in understanding the evolutional process.

Development of Estimation Models for Parking Units -Focused on Gwangju Metropolitan City Condominium Apartments- (주차원단위 산정 모형 개발에 관한 연구 -광주광역시 공동 주택 아파트를 대상으로-)

  • Kwon, Sung-Dae;Ko, Dong-Bong;Park, Je-Jin;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.549-559
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    • 2014
  • The rapid expansion of cities led to the shortage of housing in urban areas. The government compensated for this shortage through large scale residential developments that increased the housing supply. The supply of condominium apartments remains above 83% of the entire housing supply, and the proportion of apartments are at a steady increase, at about 50%. Due to the increase, illegally parked cars resulting from the shortage of parking spaces within the apartment complex have become increasingly problematic as they block the transit of emergency vehicles, and heighten the tension among neighboring residents in obtaining a parking space. Especially, the future residents are considered to plan the parking based on the estimated demand for parking. However, the parking unit method utilized to estimate the parking demand accounts for the exclusive use of space, which is believed to be far from the parking demands in reality. The reason for this discrepancy is that, as the number of households decrease, and area of exclusive space is expanded, the planned parking increases. On the other hand, when the number of households increase, and the area of exclusive space is reduced, the planned parking decreases, thus methods to recalculate the parking units based on estimated parking demand is an urgent concern. To estimate the parking units based on condominium apartments, this study first examined the existing research literature, and appointed the field of investigation to collect the necessary data. In addition, field study data and surveys collected and analyzed, in order to identify the problems underlying parking units, and problems regarding the current traffic impact assessment parking unit calculation method were deduced. Through identifying the influential factors on parking demand estimates, and performing a factorial analysis based on the collected data, the variables were selected in relation to the parking demand estimates, to develop the parking unit estimate model. Finally, through comparing and verifying the existing traffic impact assessment parking unit estimate against the newly developed model using collected data, a far more realistic parking unite estimate was suggested, reflecting the characteristics of the residents. The parking unit estimate model developed in this study is anticipated to serve as the guidelines for future parking lot legislature, as wel as the basis to provide a more realistic estimate of parking demands based on the resident characteristics of an apartment complex.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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