• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.113-123
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• 2011

Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.187-194
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• 2019

Traditional demand forecasting methods are difficult to meet the needs of companies due to rapid changes in the market and the diversification of individual consumer needs. In a diversified production environment, the right demand forecast is an important factor for smooth yield management. Many of the existing predictive models commonly used in industry today are limited in function by little. The proposed model is designed to overcome these limitations, taking into account the part where each model performs better individually. In this paper, variables are extracted through Gray Relational analysis suitable for dynamic process analysis, and statistically predicted data is generated that includes characteristics of historical demand data produced through ARIMA forecasts. In combination with the LSTM model, demand forecasts can then be calculated by reflecting the many factors that affect demand forecast through an architecture that is structured to avoid the long-term dependency problems that the neural network model has.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.440-449
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• 2022

In recent years, the air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) has been a pivotal point for researchers due to its effect on human health. Various research has been done in predicting the AQI but most of these studies, either lack dense temporal data or cover one or two air pollutant elements. In this paper, a hybrid Convolutional Neural approach integrated with recurrent neural network architecture (CNN-LSTM), is presented to find air pollution inference using a multivariate air pollutant elements dataset. The aim of this research is to design a robust and real-time air pollutant forecasting system by exploiting a neural network. The proposed approach is implemented on a 24-month dataset from Seoul, Republic of Korea. The predicted results are cross-validated with the real dataset and compared with the state-of-the-art techniques to evaluate its robustness and performance. The proposed model outperforms SVM, SVM-Polynomial, ANN, and RF models with 60.17%, 68.99%, 14.6%, and 6.29%, respectively. The model performs SVM and SVM-Polynomial in predicting O3 by 78.04% and 83.79%, respectively. Overall performance of the model is measured in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.507-527
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• 2023

Accurately estimation of the geo-mechanical parameters in Artificial Ground Freezing (AGF) is a most important scientific topic in soil improvement and geotechnical engineering. In order for this, one way is using classical and conventional constitutive models based on different theories like critical state theory, Hooke's law, and so on, which are time-consuming, costly, and troublous. The others are the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict considered parameters and behaviors accurately. This study presents a comprehensive data-mining-based model for predicting the Young's Modulus of frozen sand under the triaxial test. For this aim, several single and hybrid models were considered including additive regression, bagging, M5-Rules, M5P, random forests (RF), support vector regression (SVR), locally weighted linear (LWL), gaussian process regression (GPR), and multi-layered perceptron neural network (MLP). In the present study, cell pressure, strain rate, temperature, time, and strain were considered as the input variables, where the Young's Modulus was recognized as target. The results showed that all selected single and hybrid predicting models have acceptable agreement with measured experimental results. Especially, hybrid Additive Regression-Gaussian Process Regression and Bagging-Gaussian Process Regression have the best accuracy based on Model performance assessment criteria.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.139-147
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• 2020

The sunspot area is a critical physical quantity for assessing the solar activity level; forecasts of the sunspot area are of great importance for studies of the solar activity and space weather. We developed an innovative hybrid model prediction method by integrating the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). The time series is first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies by CEEMD; these IMFs can be divided into three groups, a high-frequency group, a low-frequency group, and a trend group. The ELM forecasting models are established to forecast the three groups separately. The final forecast results are obtained by summing up the forecast values of each group. The proposed hybrid model is applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot area archived at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). We find a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80% and 9.75, respectively, which indicates that: (1) for the CEEMD-ELM model, the predicted sunspot area is in good agreement with the observed one; (2) the proposed model outperforms previous approaches in terms of prediction accuracy and operational efficiency.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.505-511
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• 2018

This paper investigates the potential of a hybrid model which combines the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and an improved particle swarm optimization (IMPSO) techniques for prediction of concrete compressive strength. A modified PSO algorithm is employed in determining the optimal values of LSSVM parameters to improve the forecasting accuracy. Experimental data on concrete compressive strength in the literature were used to validate and evaluate the performance of the proposed IMPSO-LSSVM model. Further, predictions from five models (the IMPSO-LSSVM, PSO-LSSVM, genetic algorithm (GA) based LSSVM, back propagation (BP) neural network, and a statistical model) were compared with the experimental data. The results show that the proposed IMPSO-LSSVM model is a feasible and efficient tool for predicting the concrete compressive strength with high accuracy.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.113-127
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• 2022

The undrained shear strength of soil is considered one of the engineering parameters of utmost significance in geotechnical design methods. In-situ experiments like cone penetration tests (CPT) have been used in the last several years to estimate the undrained shear strength depending on the characteristics of the soil. Nevertheless, the majority of these techniques rely on correlation presumptions, which may lead to uneven accuracy. This research's general aim is to extend a new united soft computing model, which is a combination of random forest (RF) with grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) to the pile set-up parameters' better approximation from CPT, based on two different types of data as inputs. Data type 1 contains pile parameters, and data type 2 consists of soil properties. The contribution of this article is that hybrid GOA - RF for the first time, was suggested to forecast the pile set-up parameter from CPT. In order to do this, CPT data and related bore log data were gathered from 70 various locations across Louisiana. With an R² greater than 0.9098, which denotes the permissible relationship between measured and anticipated values, the results demonstrated that both models perform well in forecasting the set-up parameter. It is comprehensible that, in the training and testing step, the model with data type 2 has finer capability than the model using data type 1, with R² and RMSE are 0.9272 and 0.0305 for the training step and 0.9182 and 0.0415 for the testing step. All in all, the models' results depict that the A parameter could be forecasted with adequate precision from the CPT data with the usage of hybrid GOA - RF models. However, the RF model with soil features as input parameters results in a finer commentary of pile set-up parameters.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 2022

Conventional concrete needs some improvement in the mechanical properties, which can be obtained by different admixtures. However, making concrete samples costume always time and money. In this paper, different types of hybrid algorithms are applied to develop predictive models for forecasting compressive strength (CS) of concretes containing metakaolin (MK) and fly ash (FA). In this regard, three different algorithms have been used, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), and support vector machine (SVR), to predict CS of concretes by considering most influencers input variables. These algorithms integrated with the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm to increase the model's accuracy in predicting (GWMLP, GWRBF, and GWSVR). The proposed MLP models were implemented and evaluated in three different layers, wherein each layer, GWO, fitted the best neuron number of the hidden layer. Correspondingly, the key parameters of the SVR model are identified using the GWO method. Also, the optimization algorithm determines the hidden neurons' number and the spread value to set the RBF structure. The results show that the developed models all provide accurate predictions of the CS of concrete incorporating MK and FA with R² larger than 0.9972 and 0.9976 in the learning and testing stage, respectively. Regarding GWMLP models, the GWMLP1 model outperforms other GWMLP networks. All in all, GWSVR has the worst performance with the lowest indices, while the highest score belongs to GWRBF.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.33-54
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• 2015

Supercomputing performance demand forecasting at the national level is an important information to the researchers in fields of the computational science field, the specialized agencies which establish and operate R&D infrastructure, and the government agencies which establish science and technology infrastructure. This study derived the factors affecting the scientific and technological capability through the analysis of supercomputing performance prediction research, and it proposed a hybrid forecasting model of applying the super-computer technology trends. In the cross-sectional analysis, multiple regression analysis was performed using factors with GDP, GERD, the number of researchers, and the number of SCI papers that could affect the supercomputing performance. In addition, the supercomputing performance was predicted by multiplying in the cross-section analysis with technical progress rate of time period which was calculated by time series analysis using performance(Rmax) of Top500 data. Korea's performance scale of supercomputing in 2016 was predicted using the proposed forecasting model based on data of the top500 supercomputer and supercomputing performance demand in Korea was predicted using a cross-sectional analysis and technical progress rate. The results of this study showed that the supercomputing performance is expected to require 15~30PF when it uses the current trend, and is expected to require 20~40PF when it uses the trend of the targeting national-level. These two results showed significant differences between the forecasting value(9.6PF) of regression analysis and the forecasting value(2.5PF) of cross-sectional analysis.