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Bankruptcy prediction using an improved bagging ensemble (개선된 배깅 앙상블을 활용한 기업부도예측)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.121-139
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    • 2014
  • Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

Effect of Addition Lonicera japonica Thunberg on Productivity md Development of Intestinal Organs in Broiler Chickens (금은화 첨가가 육계 생산r성과 장기 발육에 미치는 영향)

  • 조성구
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1992
  • Seventy-five commercial male day-old broiler chicks were used to investigate the effects of Oxytetracycline(OTC) and Lonicera japonica Thunberg(LJT) to be active in anti-bacteria and anti-virus on the growth rate, carcass rate and various intestinal organs sizes in broiler at 3 wk of age. Five experimental diets were formulated to have similar protein and energy levels, with OTC 0.04% as low-level antibiotics and OTC 0.34% as high-level antibiotics and 0.5%, 1.0%, 3.0% level of LJT. Birds were housed randomly in 15 battery cages. Birds were 3 replicates per treatment and 5 chicks per replicate. In the body gain, 0.5% level of LJT addition grew significantly higher than the other birds. The feed intake and feed efficiency were not significantly between other birds. The addition levels in OTC and LJT did not any consistent effect on the carcass rate. However, the chest meat percentage vs carcass volume in LJT 0.5% treatment and the leg meat percentage vs carcass volume in DTC 0.04% addition level were significantly higher than those of birds fed other diets. The liver weight rate was significantly higher in OTC 0.04% level. However, the 0% and LJT levels did not exert any consistent effect on the weights of gizzard, heart, bursa of fabricius, head and spleen of broilers. The abdominal and gizzard surrounding fat content rate was higher in bird LJT 1.0% level than birds fed other levels.

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Effect of mixed Cropping with Legume and using fermented Cattle Manure on Productivity of Whole Crop Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and Organic Hanwoo feeding Capacity in Gyeongbuk Region of Korea (경북지역에서 콩과 사료작물의 혼파 재배와 발효 우분의 시용이 청보리의 생산성과 유기 한우 사육능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Jo, Ik-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.525-537
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    • 2016
  • This study was aimed to grow organic forage as a prime requirement for organic Hanwoo cattle production over a period of 3 years (2012~2015) in Gyeongbuk region, Korea through mixed cropping of winter fodder barley with legume and application of fermented cattle manure. The effect of barley-legume mixed cropping and application of different levels of fermented cattle manure was studied on forage productivity of whole-crop barley (WCB) and evaluation of feeding capacity of Korean native cattle (Hanwoo) per unit area. The collected data was analyzed using SAS 9.3 software. Barley-legume mixed cropping increased (P<0.05) yields of dry matter (DM), crude protein (CP) and total digestible nutrients (TDN) as compared to those of sole WCB as monoculture. Similarly, acid detergent fiber (ADF) contents and relative feed value (RFV) were also higher (P<0.05) in barley-legume mixed sowing forage compared with those of sole WCB as monoculture. In case of manure application, yields of DM, CP and TDN were also found (P<0.05) highest in 100~150 kg N/ha. However, varying cattle manure levels did not influence (P>0.05) CP and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) contents. In response to increasing nitrogen application level, ADF content increased (P<0.05) but TDN content and RFV decreased (P<0.05). The Barley-legume mixed sowing and increasing application levels of fermented cattle manure also significantly enhanced (P<0.05) feeding capacity of organic Hanwoo (head/ha) having 450 kg body weight with 400 g of daily gain. Findings of present study indicated that barley-legume biculture not only cut nitrogen application level of fermented cattle manure by over 50 kg per ha but also increased their feed value and productivity of forage as compared to WCB monoculture. This would be contribution to the diversity of forage resources as well as production of organic animal product by creating low cost and high quality organic forage.

Photoimmunology -Past, Present and Future-

  • Daynes, Raymond A.;Chung, Hun-Taeg;Roberts, Lee K.
    • The Journal of the Korean Society for Microbiology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.311-329
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    • 1986
  • The experimental exposure of animals to sources of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) which emit their energy primarily in the UVB region (280-320nm) is known to result in a number of well-described changes in the recipient's immune competence. Two such changes include a depressed capacity to effectively respond immunologically to transplants of syngeneic UVR tumors and a markedly reduced responsiveness to known inducers of delayedtype (DTH) and contact hypersensitivity (CH) reactions. The results of experiments that were designed to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for UVR-induced immunomodulation have implicated: 1) an altered pattern of lymphocyte recirculation, 2) suppressor T cells(Ts), 3) deviations in systemic antigen presenting cell (APC) potential. 4) changes in the production of interleukin-1-like molecules, and 5) the functional inactivation of epidermal Langerhans cells in this process. The exposure of skin to UVR, therefore, causes a number of both local and systemic alterations to the normal host immune system. In spite of this seeming complexity and diversity of responses, our recent studies have established that each of the UVR-mediated changes is probably of equal importance to creating the UVR-induced immunocompromised state. Normal animals were exposed to low dose UVR radiation on their dorsal surfaces under conditions where a $3.0\;cm^2$ area of skin was physically protected from the light energy. Contact sensitization of these animals with DNFB, to either the irradiated or protected back skin, resulted in markedly reduced CH responses. This was observed in spite of a normal responsiveness following the skin sensitization to ventral surfaces of the UVR-exposed animals. Systemic treatment of the low dose UVR recipients with the drug indomethacin (1-3 micrograms/day) during the UVR exposures resulted in a complete reversal of the depressions observed following DNFB sensitization to "protected" dorsal skin while the altered responsiveness found in the group exposed to the skin reactive chemical through directly UVR-exposed sites was maintained. These studies implicate the importance of EC as effective APC in the skin and also suggest that some of the systemic influences caused by UVR exposure involve the production of prostaglandins. This concept was further supported by finding that indomethacin treatment was also capable of totally reversing the systemic depressions in CH responsiveness caused by high dose UVR exposure (30K joules/$m^2$) of mice. Attempts to analyze the cellular mechanisms responsible established that the spleens of all animals which demonstrated altered CH responses, regardless of whether sensitization was through a normal or an irradiated skin site, contained suppressor cells. Interestingly, we also found normal levels of T effector cells in the peripheral lymph nodes of the UVR-exposed mice that were contact sensitized through normal skin. No effector cells were found when skin sensitization took place through irradiated skin sites. In spite of such an apparent paradox, insight into the probable mechanisms responsible for these observations was provided by establishing that UVR exposure of skin results in a striking and dose-dependent blockade of the efferent lymphatic vessels in all peripheral lymph nodes. Therefore, the afferent phases of immune responses can apparently take place normally in UVR exposed animals when antigen is applied to normal skin. The final effector responses, however, appear to be inhibited in the UVR-exposed animals by an apparent block of effector cell mobility. This contrasts with findings in the normal animals. Following contact sensitization, normal animals were also found to simultaneously contain both antigen specific suppressor T cells and lymph node effector cells. However, these normal animals were fully capable of mobilizing their effector cells into the systemic circulation, thereby allowing a localization of these cells to peripheral sites of antigen challenge. Our results suggest that UVR is probably not a significant inducer of suppressor T-cell activity to topically applied antigens. Rather, UVR exposure appears to modify the normal relationship which exists between effector and regulatory immune responses in vivo. It does so by either causing a direct reduction in the skin's APC function, a situation which results in an absence of effector cell generation to antigens applied to UVR-exposed skin sites, inhibiting the capacity of effector cells to gain access to skin sites of antigen challenge or by sequestering the lymphocytes with effector cell potential into the draining peripheral lymph nodes. Each of these situations result in a similar effect on the UVR-exposed host, that being a reduced capacity to elicit a CH response. We hypothesize that altered DTH responses, altered alloresponses, and altered graft-versus-host responses, all of which have been observed in UVR exposed animals, may result from similar mechanisms.

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Importance-Performance Analysis of Operation of Specialized Complexes for Horticultural Production (원예전문생산단지 운영에 대한 중요도-만족도 분석)

  • Hong, Na-Kyoung;Rhee, Zae-Woong;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2015
  • This study investigated the operation criteria of specialized complexes for horticultural production reflecting the farmers' preferences. First, the analysis of the communal activity included six factors: the group purchase of consumables for common activity, group purchase of the greenhouse apparatus, cooperative seed raising, use of a common air conditioning and heating system, cooperative shipping, and soil examination and certification system. The results of the Importance-Performance analysis can be summarized as follows. The factors requiring good management included the group purchase of consumables for common activity, group purchase of the greenhouse apparatus, and cooperative shipping. The factors with a lower priority included cooperative seed raising and the use of a common air conditioning and heating system. While the importance of the soil examination and certification system was low, the satisfaction was high, so this factor needs to be managed to avoid overkill. Second, the analysis of information exchange and education included six factors: production technique information, greenhouse facility management information, distribution-related information, production technique education, greenhouse facility management education, and distribution-related education. The results of the Importance-Performance analysis can be summarized as follows. The factor of production technique education was the most important determinant, plus the factors requiring good management included production technique information, greenhouse facility management information, and distribution-related information. The factors with a lower priority included greenhouse facility management education and distribution-related education. Therefore, to enhance productivity through facility modernization, the scaling up and creation of more specialized horticulture complexes are recommended as policy measures to gain export competitiveness. As the Korean government is expected to expand the scale of specialized horticulture complexes, the results of this paper can be widely utilized.

Effects of ambient temperature and dietary glycerol addition on growth performance, blood parameters and immune cell populations of Korean cattle steers

  • Kang, Hyeok Joong;Piao, Min Yu;Lee, In Kyu;Kim, Hyun Jin;Gu, Min Jeong;Yun, Cheol-Heui;Seo, Jagyeom;Baik, Myunggi
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2017
  • Objective: This study was performed to evaluate whether ambient temperature and dietary glycerol addition affect growth performance, and blood metabolic and immunological parameters, in beef cattle. Methods: Twenty Korean cattle steers ($405.1{\pm}7.11kg$ of body weight [BW], $14.2{\pm}0.15$ months of age) were divided into a conventional control diet group (n = 10) and a 2% glycerol- added group (n = 10). Steers were fed 1.6% BW of a concentrate diet and 0.75% BW of a timothy hay diet for 8 weeks (4 weeks from July 28th to August 26th and 4 weeks from August 27th to September 26th). Blood was collected four times on July 28th, August 11th, August 27th, and September 26th. Results: The maximum indoor ambient temperature-humidity index in August (75.8) was higher (p<0.001) than that in September (70.0), and in August was within the mild heat stress (HS) category range previously reported for dairy cattle. The average daily gain (ADG; p = 0.03) and feed efficiency (p<0.001) were higher in hotter August than in September. Glycerol addition did not affect ADG and feed efficiency. Neither month nor glycerol addition affected blood concentrations of cortisol, triglyceride, or non-esterified fatty acid. Blood concentrations of cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, glucose, and albumin were lower (p<0.05) on August 27th than on September 26 th, and blood phosphorus, calcium and magnesium concentrations were also lower on August 27th than on September 27th. Glycerol addition did not affect these blood parameters. Percentages of $CD4^+$ T cells and $CD8^+$ T cells were higher (p<0.05) on July 28th than on August 27th and September 26th. The blood $CD8^+$ T cell population was lower in the glycerol supplemented-group compared to the control group on July 28th and August 27th. Conclusion: Korean cattle may not be significantly affected by mild HS, considering that growth performance of cattle was better in hotter conditions, although some changes in blood metabolic and mineral parameters were observed.

Pre-radiotherapy and Post-radiotherapy Serial Serum Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen (SCC) and Carcinoembryonic Antigen (CEA) in the Monitoring of Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Uterine Cervix (자궁경부암 방사선치료시 Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen(SCC) 고k Carcinoembryonic Antigen(CEA) 의 종양표지자로서의 의의)

  • Yun, Hyong-Geun;Park, Choong-Hak
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.30-35
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : To evaluate the significance of squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as tumor markers in uterine cervix carcinoma. Materials and Methods : In 22 patients with histologically proven primary squamous cell carcinoma of uterine cervix, tumor volume was checked either by using MRI (in 20 patients) or ultrasound (in 2 patients). Pre-treatment serum SCC levels were checked in 22 patients and CEA levels in 21 patients. After curative radiotherapy, post-treatment SCC and CEA were checked regularly. Results : SCC was raised In 68.2$\%$ and CEA was raised in 19.0$\%$ before treatment. The coefficient of correlation between tumor volume and pre-reatment SCC was 0.59382 when one extremely deviated case was excluded. And there was no correlation between tumor volume and CEA. After the treatment, SCC was raised En 9.1$\%$ and CEA was raised in 4.8$\%$. In further follow up measurement, raise of SCC was associated with clinical relapse or persistence of disease. The specificity of raised SCC level in association with recurrent or persistent disease was 93.8$\%$ . The sensitivity in association with recurrent or persistent disease was 100$\%$. The positive predictive values was 85.7$\%$. The median lead time for recurrence was 1.2 months. Conclusions: Both SCC and CEA were good tumor markers for monitoring treatment effect in patients with raised pre-treatment levels. But the sensitivity of pretreatment CEA was low, while that of pretreatment SCC was high. And there was no additional gain by adding CEA measurements to SCC measurements.

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Effect of Root Powder Addition of Bupleurum falcatum on Broiler Productivity, Serum Contents and Development of Organs (자호(紫胡)뿌리 분말 첨가전료(添加錢料)가 육계(肉鷄)에 생산성(生産性)과 장기발육(臟器發育) 및 체액조성(體液造成)에 미치는 효과(效果))

  • Cho, Seong-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 1995
  • The male broiler chichens (Hibreed Ross P. S 120 birds) were experimented for 6 weeks in cage. while experimental diets were feded to addition 0, 0, 0. 2, 0. 5 and 1.0% levels with Root Powder of Bupleurum Falcatum Linne (RPBFL). The results were as following; The tast of RPBFL added diets was favorite as the feed intake of RPBFL diets were increased than control diet. Body weight gain (1. 845g) in 1. 0% RPBFL diet was higher enhenced by 226g/per bird than control (1. 619g). was effected above 14%. Feed re­quierment was the lowest by 2. 02 in control, and was significantly enhenced to 1. 81 in 1. 0% RPBFL diet (P<0. 01). The amounts of carcass ratio were significantly defferent effected from the broilers feding diet added with 1. 0% RPBFL (P<0. 01). Greater amounts of chest meat was produced by 253g from the broilers fed diet added 1. 0% RPBFL, was enhenced 42g than the control broilers. The chest meat vs live body weight ratio was increaced in 1. 0% added diet. According to the tendency be increased' of the RPBFL levels, the drumst­ick weight was enhenced with 1. 0% RPBFL diet. The ratio of the drumstick vs live body weight was im­proved in 1. 0% RPBFL diet. The weights of liver. spleen, heart and gizzard were heavied according to live body weight, then was improved in 1. 0% RPBFL diet. Fat accumulation (abdominal and gizzard sur­rounding) was greater abserved by 50. 12g from the broiler fed ration with 1. 0% RPBFL. Content of total serum protein was high concetration in control, then was decrased by RPBFL level. Total serum cholesterol and triglyceride contents were increased in proportion to fat accumulation ratio.

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GENETIC ALTERATIONS OF HUMAN ORAL CANCERS USING COMPARATIVE GENOMIC HYBRIDIZATION (Comparative genomic hybridization 기법을 이용한 인체 구강암의 유전자 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Myeong-Reoyl;Shim, Kwang-Sup;Lee, Young-Soo;Woo, Soon-Seop;Kong, Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2000
  • The development and progression of oral cancer is associated with an accumulation of multiple genetic alterations through the multistep processes. Comparative genomic hybridization(CGH), newly developed cytogenetic and molecular biologic technique, has been widely accepted as a useful method to allow the detection of genetic imbalance in solid tumors and the screening for chromosome sites frequently affected by gains or losses in DNA copy number. The authors examined 19 primary oral squamous cell carcinomas using CGH to identify altered chromosome regions that might contain novel oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes. Interrelationship between these genetic aberrations detected and major oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes previously recognized in carcinogenesis of oral cancers was studied. 1. Changes in DNA copy number were detected in 14 of 19 oral cancers (78.9%, mean: 5.58, range: $3{\sim}13$). High level amplification was present in 4 cases at 9p23, $12p21.1{\sim}q13.1$, 3q and $8q24{\sim}24.3$. Fourteen cases(78.9%, mean: 3.00, range: $1{\sim}8$) showed gains of DNA copy number and 12 cases(70.5%, mean: 2.58, range: $1{\sim}9$) revealed losses of DNA copy number. 2. The most common gains were detected on 3q(52.6%), 5p(21.0%), 8q(21.0%), 9p(21.0%), and 11q(21.0%). The losses of DNA copy number were frequently occurred at 9p(36.8%), 17q(36.8%), 13q(26.3%), 4p(21.0%) and 9p(21.0%). 3. The minimal common regions of gains were repeatedly observed at $3q24{\sim}26.7$, $3q27{\sim}29$, $1q22{\sim}31$, $5p12{\sim}13.3$, $8q23{\sim}24$, and 11q13.1-13.3. The minimal common regions of losses were detected at $9q11{\sim}21.3$, 17p31, $13q22{\sim}34$, and 14p16. 4. In comparison of CGH results with tumor stages, the lower stage group showed more frequent gain at 3q, 5q, 9p, and 14q, whereas gains at 1q($1q22{\sim}31$) and 11q($11q13.1{\sim}13.3$) were mainly detected in higher stage group. The loss at $13q22{\sim}34$ was exclusively detected in higher stage. The results indicate that the most frequent genetic alterations in the development of oral cancers were gains at $3q24{\sim}26.3$, $1q22{\sim}31$, and $5p12{\sim}13.3$ and losses at $9q11{\sim}21.3$, 17p31, and 13q. It is suggested that genetic alterations manifested as gains at $3q24{\sim}26.3$, $3q27{\sim}29$, $5p12{\sim}13.3$ and 5p are associated with the early progression of oral cancer. Gains at $1q22{\sim}31$ and $11q13.1{\sim}13.3$ and loss at 13q22-34 could be involved in the late progression of oral cancers.

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Channel Model and Wireless Link Performance Analysis for Short-Range Wireless Communication Applications in the Terahertz Frequency (테라헤르츠 대역 주파수에서 근거리 무선 통신 응용을 위한 채널 모델 및 무선 링크 성능 분석)

  • Chung, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.868-882
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, channel model and wireless link performance analysis for the short-range wireless communication system applications in the terahertz frequency which is currently interested in many countries will be described. In order to realize high data rates above 10 Gbps, the more wide bandwidths will be required than the currently available bandwidths of millimeter-wave frequencies, therefore, the carrier frequencies will be pushed to THz range to obtain larger bandwidths. From the THz atmospheric propagation characteristics based on ITU-R P.676-7, the available bandwidths were calculated to be 68, 48 and 45 GHz at the center frequencies of 220, 300 and 350 GHz, respectively. With these larger bandwidths, it was shown from the simulation that higher data rate above 10 Gbps can be achieved using lower order modulation schemes which have spectral efficiency of below 1. The indoor propagation delay spread characteristics were analyzed using a simplified PDP model with respect to building materials. The RMS delay spread was calculated to be 9.23 ns in a room size of $6\;m(L){\times}5\;m(W){\times}2.5\;m(H)$ for the concrete plaster with TE polarization, which is a similar result of below 10 ns from the Ray-Tracing simulation in the reference paper. The indoor wireless link performance analysis results showed that receiver sensitivity was $-56{\sim}-46\;dBm$ over bandwidth of $5{\sim}50\;GHz$ and antenna gain was calculated to be $26.6{\sim}31.6\;dBi$ at link distance of 10m under the BPSK modulation scheme. The maximum achievable data rates were estimated to be 30, 16 and 12 Gbps at the carrier frequencies of 220, 300 and 350 GHz, respectively, under the A WGN and LOS conditions, where it was assumed that the output power of the transmitter is -15 dBm and link distance of 1 m with BER of $10^{-12}$. If the output power of transmitter is increased, the more higher data rate can be achieved than the above results.