• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard-rate model

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Prediction of Exposure and Risks of Environmental Pollutants via Emission Assessment and Multimedia Transport Modeling (배출량산정모델과 다중매질모델링을 이용한 환경오염물질의 노출평가 및 위해도 평가)

  • Kim, Jong Ho;Kwak, Byoung Kyu;Shin, Chee Burm;Jeon, Won Jin;Yi, Jongheop
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.248-257
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, human exposure and risk of environmental pollutants were predicted using an emission assessment model and multimedia fate model. Eight environmental pollutants, acetaldehyde, acrylonitrile, aniline, benzene, carbon tetrachloride, dichloromethane, formaldehyde and vinyl chloride, were selected for the risk assessment in an urban and industrial area in Korea. The emission rate of target pollutants were estimated after considering a variety of point and non-point emission sources including geographical information. A spatially refined multimedia fate model was applied to predict the environmental concentration and fate of pollutants. Hazard data of target materials were obtained from the IRIS(Integrated Risk Information System) database. Using the modeling results with hazard data, the human risks were assessed. Modeling results demonstrate that the considerable risks were observed for several pollutants.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on polynomial hazard function (다항 위험함수에 근거한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2015
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. It is shown that it is possible to do parameter inference for software reliability models based on finite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). For someone making a decision to market software, the conditional failure rate is an important variables. In this case, finite failure model are used in a wide variety of practical situations. Their use in characterization problems, detection of outlier, linear estimation, study of system reliability, life-testing, survival analysis, data compression and many other fields can be seen from the many study. Statistical process control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and thereby contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of polynomial hazard function.

Development of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Flow Model for Use in Land Surface Models at a Large Scale: Part I. Model Description (대규모 육지수문모형에서 사용 가능한 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형의 개발: I. 모형설명)

  • Choi, Hyun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.59-63
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    • 2008
  • The surface runoff is one of the important components for the surface water balance. However, most Land Surface Models(LSMs), coupled to climate models at a large scale for the prediction and prevention of disasters caused by climate changes, simplistically estimate surface runoff from the soil water budget. Ignoring the role of surface flow depth on the infiltration rate causes errors in both surface and subsurface flow calculations. Therefore, for the comprehensive terrestrial water and energy cycle predictions in LSMs, a conjunctive surface-subsurface flow model at a large scale is developed by coupling a 1-D diffusion wave model for surface flow with the 3-D Volume Averaged Soil-moisture Transport(VAST) model for subsurface flow. This paper describes the new conjunctive surface-subsurface flow formulation developed for improvement of the prediction of surface runoff and spatial distribution of soil water by topography, along with basic schemes related to the terrestrial hydrologic system in Common Land Model(CLM), one of the state-of-the-art LSMs.

Nonparametric Analysis of Warranty Data on Engine : Case Study (엔진에 대한 품질보증데이터의 비모수적 분석 사례연구)

  • Baik, Jai-Wook;Jo, Jin-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 2006
  • Claim history data of rather long period were collected to assess reliability and warranty cost analyses. The data were appropriately organized to be used for further statistical analyses. For each critical component, nonparametric statistical method was applied to obtain reliability plot. Hazard plots of the components in a subsystem or system level were also obtained. Competing risk model was assumed to obtain the performance of the subsystem or system level.

Determinants of Termination of Anti-dumping Measures: The Case of Korea

  • Rhee, Jin Woo;Jang, Yong Joon
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.95-117
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    • 2022
  • This paper empirically examines what factors affected the termination of anti-dumping measures in Korea during the 2006-2019 period. Employing a meticulous literature review, the paper investigates the WTO's and Korea's rules on the termination of anti-dumping measures and sets up the related variables in the Cox proportional hazards model. The empirical results show that the GDP growth rate, employment, and trade competitiveness in domestic industries had positive effects on the hazard of the termination of AD measures, while free trade agreements had negative effects. By industry, the hazard of the termination of AD measures was less prominent in the steel industry, while it was more prominent in the machinery industry. These results imply that AD measures in Korea had the properties of a proper trade remedy policy and, at the same time, a protectionism tool to sustain its domestic industries, depending on industrial characteristics and other trade policies.

Estimating Relative Risk Level of Construction Work (건설공사 상대적 위험도 산정)

  • Son, Ki-Sang;Yang, Hak-Soo;Gal, Won-Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.5 s.77
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2006
  • Standard safety management costs can not be applied to each site with same rate, it is very difficult, because it depends on the experience, work method, work kind, work progress schedule, and hazard level of each construction company. Therefore, this study is to find out hazard level of each work kinds through questionnaire and interview and investigate analyze the status which standard safety management costs have been used. Also, this study is to show reasonable rates of standard safety management costs in construction industry and to set up countermeasures against those problem after reviewing its status in korea with in Japan and Europe. The domestic system of standard safety management costs is not considered in the foreign country, while only related subjective items have been investigated and evaluated for this study. This study is to investigate eleven project kinds of domestic system, first, and to investigate eleven items of apartment bldg, office, civil work such as bridge, tunnel, dam, plant etc, secondly. Additionally, three items of gymnasium, railway, particular steel tower are investigated in this study. Also this study is to investigate and analyze performed costs of presently processing worker finished work so that it shows a new reasonable rate against standard safety management costs in construction industry, in order to make basial data and material to be systemized.

Functional Improvement of Floating Breakwaters with Long Wave Kinetics (장주기 및 유동성분을 고려한 부유식방파제의 방파성능 개선)

  • Yoon, Jae-Seon;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a series of laboratory experiments are carried out to analyze fluid behaviors around multi-arranged (2 pieces) floating breakwaters with various parameters such as distance between structures, wave periods and steepness. The rate of wave transmission is shown to be affected directly by wave periods of incident waves and the breakwaters with multi-arranged structures show the highest rate of wave protection compared with other cases. The velocity fields around the breakwaters are measured by using the Laser Doppler Velocimetry system. The transmission coefficients are also measured in laboratory experiments. Finally, laboratory observed data are compared with numerical experimental results and analyzed in detail.

Joint Modeling of Death Times and Number of Failures for Repairable Systems using a Shared Frailty Model (공유환경효과를 고려한 수리가능한 시스템의 수명과 고장회수의 결합모형 개발)

  • 박희창;이석훈
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-123
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    • 1998
  • We consider the problem of modeling count data where the observation period is determined by the life time of the system under study. We assume random effects or a frailty model to allow for a possible association between the death times and the counts. We assume that, given a random effect or a frailty, the death times follow a Weibull distribution with a hazard rate. For the counts, given a frailty, a Poisson process is assumed with the intensity depending on time. A gamma distribution is assumed for the frailty model. Maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are obtained. A model for the time to death and the number of failures system received is constructed and consequences of the model are examined.

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Long-term Prognostic Value of Dipyridamole Stress Myocardial SPECT (디피리다몰 부하 심근관류 SPECT의 장기예후 예측능)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Jang, Myung-Jin;Kang, Won-Jun;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myoung-Mook;Lee, Myung-Chul;Kang, Wee-Chang;Lee, Young-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT could predict prognosis, however, long-term follow-up showed change of hazard ratio in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. We investigated how long normal SPECT could predict the benign prognosis on the long-term follow-up. Materials and Methods: We followed up 1169 patients and divided these patients into groups in whom coronary angiography were performed and were not. Total cardiac event rate and hard event rate were predicted using clinical, angiographic and SPECT findings. Predictive values of normal and abnormal SPECT were examined using survival analysis with Mantel-Haenszel method, multivariate Cox proportional hazard model analysis and newly developed statistical method to test time-invariance of hazard rate and changing point of this rate. Results: Reversible perfusion decrease on myocardial perfusion SPECT predicted higher total cardiac event rate independently and further to angiographic findings. However, myocardial SPECT showed independent but not incremental prognostic values for hard event rate. Hazard ratio of normal perfusion SPECT was changed significantly (p<0.001) and the changing point of hazard rate was 4.4 years of follows up. However, the ratio of abnormal SPECT was not. Conclusion: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT provided independent prognostic information in patients with known and suspected coronary artery disease. Normal perfusion SPECT predicted least event rate for 4.4 years.

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A Study on the Application Plan of the Optimized Risk Assessment Model in Construction Field (최적 위험도 평가 모델의 건설업 분야 적용 방안에 관한 연구)

  • cho, Jae-hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2017
  • It has come to attention that a risk-assessing organization, that will benchmark a company's safety department, is imperative, following an increase in large-scale SOC-business project, construction of higher-raised buildings, development of underground space; all that have increase accident rates. Having faced problems that arise in firms that demand diversity, complexity and instantaneity, the purpose of the thesis is to arrive at efficient and practical problem-solving means. In order to solve the problems that would surface theoretically during an actual risk assessment, the state of the operation systems of the top five national construction firms having a hazard rate of 0.25 times less than the average rate have been analyzed, while a hierarchal recognition research of the employees who not only function at the operating level but are the practice subjects of a firm, has also been conducted, bringing the main text.