• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard area

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Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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Determination of Heavy Metal Unit Load from Transportation Landuses during a Storm (교통 관련 토지이용에서의 중금속 오염원단위 산정)

  • Kim, Cheol-Min;Lee, So-Young;Lee, Eun-Ju;Kim, Lee-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.155-160
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    • 2008
  • The urban areas have various landuses such as residential, commercial, industrial and official purposes that are highly concerned with human activities. The other landuses are relating to vehicle activities, which are roads, parking lots, bridges, parks etc. The mainly using landuses by human activities are possessing three different areas that are buildings, parking lots/roads and landscapes. Of these areas, the buildings and landscapes can be classified as non-pollution areas. However, the parking lots or roads are classifying as the main pollution areas because of vehicle activities. Therefore, the landuses arising the nonpoint pollution during a storm in urban areas are roads and parking lots. The vehicles are emitting lots of nonpoint pollutants such as metals and particulate matters and it is impacting on water qualities and aqua-ecosystems nearby the city areas. Therefore, this research was conducted for characterizing the pollutant types and determining the EMCs (Event Mean Concentrations) and unit pollutant loads during a storm. The monitoring was performed on 9 locations such as highways, service area, tollgates, parking lot and bridges. All of the landuses selected for monitoring are concerned with transportation. The results can be effectively used to predict the pollutant loading before urban planning and to select the BMPs (Best Management Practices) for reducing the pollution.

Calculation of Water Level Variations and Extreme Waves in Busan Harbor due to Storm Surges (고조로 인한 부산항 해수면 변화 및 극한파랑의 산정)

  • Whang Ho-Dong;Lee Joong-Woo;Kwon So-Hyun;Yang Sang-Yong;Gum Dong-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.227-234
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    • 2004
  • Recently huge typhoons had attacked to the coastal waters in Korea and caused disastrous casualties in those area. There are some discussions on correction to the design parameters for the coastal structures. Wave transformation computations with the extreme waves are of value in planning and constructing engineering works, especially in coastal regions. Prediction of typhoon surge elevations is based primarily on the use of a numerical model in this study, since it is difficult to study these events in real time or with use of physical models. Wave prediction with a two dimensional numerical model for a site with complicated coastal lines and structures at the period of typhoon 'Maemi' is discussed. In order to input parameters for the extreme wave conditions, we analyzed the observed and predicted typhoon data. Finally we applied the model discussed above to the storm surge and extreme wave problem at Busan Harbor, the southeast coast of Korea. Effects of water level variation and transformation of the extreme waves in relation with the flooding in coastal waters interested are analyzed. We then mack an attempt to presen a basic hazard map for the corresponding site.

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Maintenance Management System for Urban Drainage System (도시유역 내배수시설 유지관리시스템)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Joo, Jin-Gul;Kim, Eung-Seok;Park, Moo-Jong;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2008
  • Sewer rehabilitation is performed to improve the problem for urban drainage sewer system recently. However the data for the sewer system is not stored enough so that the sewer system is difficult to be managed systematically. In this study, a maintenance management system for urban drainage system is developed to store the data efficiently and manage the system systematically. In the developed system, a hydraulic and hydrologic analysis module is included to test the carrying capacity of a sewer pipe and estimate the amount of combined sewer overflows. The I/I and superannuation evaluation module is included in this system. The module distribute the total inflow/infiltration observed at the several sampling points in a drainage area to the individual pipes of the entire sewer system. Then the superannuation of a sewer pipe is evaluated according to the amount of I/I of the pipe. And in the developed system, the optimal rehabilitation priority module is included to determine the optimal priority and support the decision making for the sewer rehabilitation. The maintenance management system which is developed in this study is constructed by the association with the developed modules and the system is formed as graphical user interface system.

The Prognostic Value of the Charlson's Comorbidity Index in Patients with Prolonged Acute Mechanical Ventilation: A Single Center Experience

  • Song, Seung Eon;Lee, Sang Hee;Jo, Eun-Jung;Eom, Jung Seop;Mok, Jeong Ha;Kim, Mi-Hyun;Kim, Ki Uk;Lee, Min Ki;Lee, Kwangha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.79 no.4
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    • pp.289-294
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    • 2016
  • Background: The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Charlson's weighted index of comorbidities (WIC) in patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV, ventilator care ${\geq}96$ hours). Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 299 Korean PAMV patients who were admitted in a medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital between 2008 and 2013. Survivors were defined as patients who survived for 60 days after ICU admission. Results: The patients' mean age was $65.1{\pm}14.1$ years and 70.6% were male. The mean ICU and hospital length of stay was $21.9{\pm}19.7$ and $39.4{\pm}39.1$ days, respectively. In addition, the 60-day mortality rate after ICU admission was 35.5%. The mean WIC was $2.3{\pm}1.8$, with significant differences between nonsurvivors and survivors ($2.7{\pm}2.1$ vs. $2.1{\pm}1.7$, p<0.05). The area under the curve of receiver-operating-characteristics curve for WIC was 0.593 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.523-0.661; p<0.05). Based on Kaplan-Meier curves of 60-day survival, WIC ${\geq}5$ had statistically lower survival than WIC <5 (logrank test, p<0.05). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, WIC ${\geq}5$ was associated with poor prognosis (hazard ratio, 1.901; 95% CI, 1.140-3.171; p<0.05). The mortality rate of patients with WIC ${\geq}5$ was 54.2%. Conclusion: Our study showed a WIC score ${\geq}5$ might be helpful in predicting 60-day mortality in PAMV patients.

Characteristics of Tsunami Propagation through the Korean Straits and Statistical Description of Tsunami Wave Height (대한해협에서의 지진해일 전파특성과 지진해일고의 확률적 기술)

  • Cho, Yong-Jun;Lee, Jae-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2006
  • We numerically studied tsunami propagation characteristics through Korean Straits based on nonlinear shallow water equation, a robust wave driver of the near field tsunamis. Tsunamis are presumed to be generated by the earthquake in Tsuhima-Koto fault line. The magnitude of earthquake is chosen to be 7.5 on Richter scale, which corresponds to most plausible one around Korean peninsula. It turns out that it takes only 60 minutes for leading waves to cross Korean straits, which supports recently raised concerns at warning system might be malfunctioned due to the lack of evacuation time. We also numerically obtained the probability of tsunami inundation of various levels, usually referred as tsunami hazard, along southern coastal area of Korean Peninsula based on simple seismological and Kajiura (1963)'s hydrodynamic model due to tsunami-generative earthquake in Tsuhima-Koto fault line. Using observed data at Akita and Fukaura during Okushiri tsunami in 1993, we verified probabilistic model of tsunami height proposed in this study. We believe this inundation probability of various levels to give valuable information for the amendment of current building code of coastal disaster prevention system to tame tsunami attack.

Application of Predictive Food Microbiology Model in HACCP System of Milk (우유의 HACCP 시스템에서 Predictive Food Microbiology Model 이용)

  • 박경진;김창남;노우섭;홍종해;천석조
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2001
  • Predictive food microbiology(PFM) is an emerging area of food microbiology since the later 1980’s. It does apply mathematical models to predict the responses of microorganism to specified environmental variables. Although, at present, PFM models do not completely developed, models can provide very useful information for microbiological responses in HACCP(Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) system and Risk Assessment. This study illustrates the possible use of PFM models(PMP: Pathogen Modeling Program win5.1) with milk in several elements in the HACCP system, such as conduction of hazard analysis and determination of CCP(Critical Control Points) and CL(Critical Limits). The factors likely to affect the growth of the pathogens in milk involved storage fixed factors were pH 6.7, Aw 0.993 and NaCl 1.3%. PMPwin5.1 calculated generation time, lag phase duration, time to level of infective dose for pathogens across a range of storage (Critical Control Points) and CL(Critical Limits). The factors likely to affect the growth of the pathogens in milk involved storage temperature, pH, Aw and NaCl content. The factors likely to affect the growth of the pathogens in milk involved storage temperature, pH, Aw and NaCl content. The variable factor was storage temperature at the range of 4~15$^{\circ}C$ and the fixed factors were pH 6.7, Aw 0.993 and NaC 1.3%. PMPwin5.1 calculated generation time, lag phase duration, time to level of infective dose for pathogens across a range of storage temperature.

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Cigarette Smoking and Mortality in the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort (KMCC) Study (한국인의 흡연과 사망 위험에 관한 코호트 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Ha;Park, Sue-K.;Ko, Kwang-Pil;Cho, In-Seong;Chang, Soung-Hoon;Shin, Hai-Rim;Kang, Dae-Hee;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking and total mortality, cancer mortality and other disease mortalities in Korean adults. Methods: A total of 14 161 subjects of the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort who were over 40 years of age and who were cancer-free at baseline enrollment reported their lifestyle factors, including the smoking status. The median follow-up time was 6.6 years. During the follow-up period from 1993 to 2005, we identified 1159 cases of mortality, including 260 cancer mortality cases with a total of 91 987 person-years, by the national death certificate. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of cigarette smoking for total mortality, cancer mortality and disease-specific mortality, as adjusted for age, gender, the geographic area and year of enrollment, the alcohol consumption status, the education level and the body mass index (BMI). Results: Cigarette smoking was significantly associated with an increased risk of total mortality, all-cancer mortality and lung cancer mortality (p-trend, < 0.01, <0.01, <0.01, respectively). Compared to non-smoking, current smokers were at a higher risk for mortality [HR (95% CI)=1.3 (1.1 - 1.5) for total mortality; HR (95% CI)=1.6 (1.1 -2.2) for all-cancer mortality; HR (95% CI)=3.9 (1.9-7.7) for lung cancer mortality]. Conclusions: This study's results suggest that cigarette smoking might be associated with total mortality, all-cancer mortality and especially lung cancer mortality among Korean adults.

Evaluation on Geological Structures to Secure Long-term Safety of Nuclear Facility Sites (원자력시설물 부지의 장기적 안전성 확보를 위한 지질구조 평가)

  • Jin, Kwangmin;Kim, Young-Seog
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.149-166
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    • 2018
  • Many large earthquakes have continuously been reported and resulted in significant human casualties and extensive damages to properties globally. The accident of Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan was caused by a mega-tsunami, which is a secondary effect associated with the Tohoku large earthquake (M=9.0, 2011. 3. 11.). Most earthquakes occur by reactivation of pre-existing active faults. Therefore, the importance of paleoseismological study have greatly been increased. The Korean peninsula has generally been considered to be a tectonically stable region compared with neighboring countries such as Japan and Taiwan, because it is located on the margin of the Eurasian intra-continental region. However, the recent earthquakes in Gyeongju and Pohang have brought considerable insecurity on earthquake hazard. In particular, this region should be secure against earthquake, because many nuclear facilties and large industrial facilities are located in this area. However, some large earthquakes have been reported in historic documents and also several active faults have been reported in southeast Korea. This study explains the evaluation methods of geological structures on active fault, fault damage zone, the relationship between earthquake and active fault, and respect distance. This study can contribute to selection of safe locations for nuclear facilities and to earthquake hazards and disaster prevention.

Distribution and Risk Assessment of Bisphenol-A in Tap Water from Rehabilitated Indoor Water Service Pipe (갱생 옥내급수관 수돗물에서 비스페놀-A 분포 및 위해성 평가)

  • Jeong, Gwanjo;Son, Boyoung;Lee, Inja;Ahn, Chihwa;Kim, Junil;Moon, Boram;Lee, Suwon;Ahn, Jaechan;Kim, Bogsoon;Chung, Deukmo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.371-376
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the survey of bisphenol-A in indoor water service pipes rehabilitated with epoxy resin was conducted and the risk assessment was done to investigate the effect on the human health to drink tap water. Bisphenol-A in raw water was detected in a range of 50~118 ng/L in all samples, where the limit of quantification was 10 ng/L. This is caused by inflow of the sewage effluent or the tributaries of the surrounding area containing bisphenol-A. Bisphenol-A was not detected in finished water after the advanced water treatment process. It was achieved by its removal from the processes of flocculation-precipitation and oxidation of ozone and chlorine and by being changed to other by-product materials. For the indoor water service pipe, bisphenol-A was not detected in all cases which was not coated with epoxy resin. However, when epoxy resin is lined within the indoor water service pipe, bisphenol-A was identified at maximum level of 521 ng/L and was detected above the limit of quantitation at 68 percentages of all samples. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) at the maximum level (521 ng/L) of the detected bisphenol-A is 0.004, which is less than the reference value of 0.1 for the tap water intake. Therefore, it is considered that the detected levels of bisphenol-A in this study would be safe to drink tap water.