• Smart Media Journal
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• v.12 no.10
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• pp.9-18
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• 2023

Harvest forecasting is the great demand of multiple aspects like temperature, rain, environment, and their relations. The existing study investigates the climate conditions and aids the cultivators to know the harvest yields before planting in farms. The proposed study uses federated learning. In addition, the additional widespread techniques such as bagging classifier, extra tees classifier, linear discriminant analysis classifier, quadratic discriminant analysis classifier, stochastic gradient boosting classifier, blending models, random forest regressor, and AdaBoost are utilized together. These presented nine algorithms achieved exemplary satisfactory accuracies. The powerful contributions of proposed algorithms can create exact harvest forecasting. Ultimately, we intend to compare our study with the earlier research's results.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.629-643
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and efficiency of a policy by comparing and analyzing the impact of the rice market isolation system and production adjustment system (strategic crops direct payment system that induces the cultivation of other crops instead of rice) on rice supply, rice price, and government's financial expenditure. To achieve this purpose, a rice supply and demand forecasting and policy simulation model was developed in this study using a partial equilibrium model limited to a single item (rice), a dynamic equation model system, and a structural equation system that reflects the casual relationship between variables with economic theory. The rice policy analysis model used a recursive model and not a simultaneous equation model. The policy is distinct from that of previous studies, in which changes in government's policy affected the price of rice during harvest and the lean season before the next harvest, and price changes affected the supply and demand of rice according to the modeling, that is, a more specific policy effect analysis. The analysis showed that the market isolation system increased government's financial expenditure compared to the production adjustment system, suggesting low policy financial efficiency, low policy effectiveness on target, and increased harvest price. In particular, the market isolation system temporarily increased the price during harvest season but decreased the price during the lean season due to an increase in ending stock caused by increased production and government stock. Therefore, a decrease in price during the lean season may decrease annual farm-gate prices, and the reverse seasonal amplitude is expected to intensify.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.37-43
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• 2001

Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called "Myun") making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the $r^2$ values higher than 0.97 in all three years.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.405-414
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• 2021

This study predicted waxy corn harvest date in South Korea using 30-year (1991-2020) hindcasts (1-6 month lead) produced by the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. To estimate corn harvest date, the cumulative temperature is used, which accumulated the daily observed and predicted temperatures from the seeding date (5 April) to the reference temperature (1,650~2,200℃) for harvest. In terms of the mean air temperature, the hindcasts with a bias correction (20.2℃) tends to have a cold bias of about 0.1℃ for the 6 months (April to September) compared to the observation (20.3℃). The harvest date derived from bias-corrected hindcasts (DOY 187~210) well simulates one from observation (DOY 188~211), despite a slight margin of 1.1~1.3 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the gridded (5 km) daily temperature and corn harvest date information based on the cumulative temperature in advance for all regions of South Korea.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.129-136
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• 2002

Agamermis unka, a mermithid parasite of brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens, is the most important natural enemy of BPH and white-backed planthopper (WBPH), Sogatella furcifera in Korea. Distribution of A. unka was investigated in Korean rice fields from 1992 to 1998 and in 2001. Overwintering population of A. unka in Gosung, Namhae, and Tongyoung from 1992 to 1998 was different depending on locality and year. In the survey of A. tanka distribution in the spring of 2001, A. unka was found only at Jangheung and Haenam in Jeonnam province and Namhae, Jinju, Sancheong, Sacheon, Gosung, Tongyoung, Uiryeong, Changwon, Gimhae, and the experimental field of Gyeongsangnamdo Agricultural Research and Extension Services at Jinju in Gyeongnam province out of 30 observed regions in 5 provinces. The number of A. unka was 1,045/㎥ at Namhae, 947/㎥ at the experimental field of Gyeongsangnamdo Agricultural Research and Extension Services, and 395/㎥ at Gosung. Density of A. unka at the rice paddies of Gyeongnam province after harvest in 2001 was higher at the rice fields of Namhae, Gosung, and the experimental field of Gyeongsangnamdo Agricultural Research and Extension Services. Although density of A. unka was higher in the pesticide-untreated plots than fungicide-treated or insecticide-treated plots of forecasting paddies, there were no significant differences. After rice harvest A. unka was found from the forecasting paddies of Gosung, Jinju, Namhae and Sacheon out of 19 observed localities in Gyeongnam province.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.1001-1013
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to build an oyster outlook model. In particular, by limiting oyster items, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model based on a panel analysis of a fixed effect model on aquaculture facilities. The model was built with a dynamic ecological equation (DEEM) system that considers aquaculture and harvesting processes. As a result of the estimation of the initial aquaculture facilities based on the panel analysis, the elasticity of the remaining facility volume in the previous month was estimated to be 0.63. According to Nerlove's model, the adjustment coefficient was interpreted as 0.31 and the adjustment speed was analyzed to be very slow. Also, the relative income coefficient was estimated to be 2.41. In terms of elasticity, it was estimated as 0.08% in Gyeongnam, 0.32% in Jeonnam, and 1.98% in other regions. It was analyzed that the elasticity of relative income was accordingly higher in non-main production area. In case of the estimation of the monthly harvest facility volume, the elasticity of the remaining facility volume in the previous month was estimated as 0.53, and the elasticity of the farm-gate price was estimated as 0.23. Both fresh and chilled and frozen oysters' exports were estimated to be sensitive to fluctuations in domestic prices and exchange rates, while Japanese wholesale prices were estimated to be relatively low in sensitivity, especially to the exchange rate with Japan. In estimating the farm-gate price, the price elasticity coefficient of monthly production was estimated to be inelastic at 0.25.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.267-275
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• 2023

This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.213-219
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• 2009

An understanding of anthracnose (Colletotrichum acutatum) infections, including the infection of flowers and latent infection early in the season, is necessary to achieve successful control by means of properly timed spraying with a curative fungicide. In the present study, latent anthracnose infection of chili was investigated under greenhouse and field conditions in 2007-2008. Flowers on greenhouse-grown seedlings were infected and 11% of the young fruits subsequently showed symptoms of anthracnose. Apparently healthy-looking green peppers obtained from unsprayed fields or an organic market also exhibited symptoms of anthracnose after 4 days of incubation under high moisture conditions at $25^{\circ}C$; less than 1% of the peppers were found to be latently infected. To determine the natural timing of infection in the field, 3,200 fruits were wrapped in paper bags and then selectively unwrapped and examined for signs of infection. Field experiments were conducted at Suwon (cvs. Yokkang, Manitta, Olympic) and Asan (cv. Chunhasangsa) in 2008. The 7- to 10-day wrapping periods were July 25-31, July 31-August 7, August 7-15, August 15-24, and August 24-September 3. The 1-to 2-month wrapping periods were from July 4, July 31, and August 15 until harvest (Sept. 3). The controls consisted of 1,712 field-grown non-wrapped fruits. The rates of infection on the various cultivars were Yokkang 55%, Manitta 37%, Olympic 55%, and Chunhasangsa 20%. A distinct period in which anthracnose infection suddenly increased could not be identified; however, attempts to guess the approximate timing of field infection showed that 0-39% of the plants had latent infections, while depending on the cultivar, 8-14% of the plants examined in August and 4-13.5% of the those examined during May-July showed symptoms of infection. Delaying fungicide spraying by 24 and 48 h after artificial infection decreased the rates of infection by 10% and 25-30%, respectively. Chemical control of anthracnose based on a forecasting model should be considered starting from the transplanting stage, with spraying within a day after warning and care being taken not to latently infect apparently healthy pepper fruits.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.209-216
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• 2004

The circular leaf spot of persimmon is occurred almost every place where persimmon is cultivated, especially the disease outbreak severely in southern part of Korea. The disease reveals unusually long incubation period after pathogen invade into leaf tissue and no practical control measure is available once the symptom has appeared. Most of the farmers just follow the suggested spray schedules calculated on the basis of weather condition of ordinary years. Therefore the damages due to circular leaf spot greatly differ year after year. In this article, we tried to describe and summarized the investigation on the circular leaf spot pathogen, Mycosphaerella nawae, related to disease outbreak such as overwintering of pathogen, inoculum formation and spread, incubation period after infection, and secondary inoculum. With the summary of these results, we suggest the disease cycle of circular leaf spot of persimmon. The pathogen overwinters in diseased leaves as mycelial form or pseudoperithecial premodium. The pseudoperitheria become matured in spring as the temperature raise and forms asci and ascospores. The maturation of pseudoperithecia are closely related to the temperatures during March and early April. The ascospores completely mature in early May and the ascospores released when the pseudoperithecia absorbed enough moisture after rainfall. The release of ascospores are diverse greatly with the variation of maturity of pseudoperithecia. Generally the spore start to release from middle of May to early of July. Duration of ascospore release is depend on the weather condition of particular year, especially amount and number of precipitation. The ascospores produced from pseudoperithecia is known to the only inoculum for circular leaf spot disease. But according to the results obtained from our investigations, the conidia formed on the lesions which incited by natural infection. This conidia are infectious to persimmon leaves and formed identical symptom as natural infection. The time of producing secondary inoculum of circular leaf spot of persimmon is considered too late to develop new disease. Generally the importance of secondary inoculum is low but the conidia produced in early September are competent to develop new disease and new infection also significantly affect to harvest of persimmon. The importance of circular leaf spot disease is recognized well to farmers. The approaches to control of the disease should be initiated on the basis of the knowledges of inoculum dynamics and ecology of disease development. The forecasting system for circular leaf spot is need to be developed.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 2014

'Hanareum' pear is expected to produce the high quality small and medium-sized fruits without any major changes in the current cultivation techniques, inasmuch as its basic characteristics are already included in the range of small and medium-sized fruits. Thus, we tested the possibility of utilization of 'Hanareum' pear for producing small and medium-sized fruits, while establishing the limit of minimum fruit weight for the fruits in high quality. With the results of correlation analysis, it was possible to predict the fruit weight through the observation of soluble solid contents and flesh firmness, because both factors were closely correlated to fruit weight in all treatments. Moreover, these factors were confirmed to be useful indicators of forecasting consumer preference in the sensory evaluation. The fruit marketability was excellent under the conditions that were greater than $11.6^{\circ}Bx$ and less than 25.6 N for soluble solid contents and flesh firmness, respectively. When applying these standards of fruit quality to the results of regression analysis for fruit weight, non-treated fruits fulfilled both standards when the fruit weight was higher than 436 g, and the quality uniformity was also high on this state. Therefore, the production of high quality small and medium-sized fruits was determined to be under this condition. The weight limit for GA treated fruits was 620 g, and both fruit quality and uniformity were below the weight range of small and medium-sized fruits, with 300~500 g. Thus, GA treatment was suggested to be avoided, in order to produce the high quality small and medium-sized fruits.