• Title/Summary/Keyword: Growth curve parameters

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Reliability Growth Planning for a Military System Using PM2-Continuous Model (예측방법론 기반 연속형 계획 모델을 적용한 무기체계의 신뢰도 성장 계획)

  • Seo, Yangwoo;Park, Eunshim;Kim, Youngkuk;Lee, Kwanyoung;Kim, Myungsoo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.201-207
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To develop the reliability growth planning for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model. Methods: The target MTBF of the subsystem is set by allocating the system target MTBF to the lower level, where ARINC method is applied. Other model parameters such as initial MTBF, management strategy ratio and average fix effectiveness factor are chosen from historical growth parameter estimates. Given the values of model parameters, the reliability growth planning curve using PM2-Continuous model is constructed and the sensitivity analyses are performed for the changes of model parameters. Results: We have developed the reliability growth plan for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model. It was found that the smaller the ratio of initial MTBF to target MTBF, the smaller the management strategy ratio, the smaller the average fix effectiveness factor, and the shorter the development test period, the higher reliability growth is required. Conclusion: The result of this study will be used as a basis for establishing the reliability growth plan, the test period setting and the budget appropriation for the similar system entering the system development stage in the future.

Selecting the Best Soil Particle-Size Distribution Model for Korean Soils

  • Hwang, Sang-Il
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2003
  • Particle-size distributions (PSDs) are widely used for the estimation of soil hydraulic properties. The objective of this study was to select the best model among the nine PSD models with different underlying assumptions, by using a variety of Korean soils. The Fredlund model with four parameters, the logistic growth curve, and Weibull distribution model showed the highest performance compared to the other models with the majority of soils studied. It was interesting to find that the logistic growth function with no fitting parameters showed a great fitting performance.

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Effect of Chlorides on Nitrification Process in a Tidal Section of the River (하천 감조역에서의 질소변환에 있어서 염분의 영향)

  • 김원규
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 1993
  • Laboratory batch experiments were conducted, using suspended solids and sediments taken. from a tidal section of the Rokkaku river, to study the effect of salinity on nitrification and to estimate kinetic parameters of it. Experimental results indicated much more inhibitation of ;$NO_2$-N oxidation by chlorides than that of $NH_4$-N oxidtion. Nitrifying bactema in sediments were less sensitive to chlorides than those in SS. The change of nitrogen concentration with time was clearly explained with the Monod growth model and the kinetic parameters were obtained by the curve fitting method.

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Unified Molding and Simulation for Nano-structured Tungsten Carbide

  • Park, Seong-Jin;Johnson, John L.;German, Randall M.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Powder Metallurgy Institute Conference
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    • 2006.09a
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    • pp.362-363
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    • 2006
  • Nano-structured tungsten carbide compacts with cobalt matrices (WC-Co) offer new opportunities for achieving superior hardness and toughness combinations. A unified modeling and simulation tool has been developed to produce maps of sintering pathways from nanocrystalline WC powder to sintered nano-structured WC-Co compacts. This tool includes (1) die compaction, (2) grain growth, (3) densification, (4) sensitivity analysis, and (5) optimization. All material parameters were obtained by curve fitting based on results with two WC-Co powders. Critical processing parameters are determined based on sensitivity analysis and are optimized to minimize grain size with high density.

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Numerical study to reproduce a real cable tray fire event in a nuclear power plant

  • Jaiho Lee ;Byeongjun Kim;Yong Hun Jung;Sangkyu Lee;Weon Gyu Shin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.1571-1584
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a numerical analysis was performed as part of an international joint research project to reproduce a real cable tray fire that occurred in the heater bay area of the turbine building of a nuclear power plant. A sensitivity analysis was performed on various input parameters to derive results consistent with the sprinkler activation time obtained from the fire event analysis. For all sensitive parameters, the normalized sprinkler activation time correlated well with the power function of the normalized sprinkler height. A correlation equation was developed to identify the sprinkler activation time at any location when determining the slope or fire growth rate under the conditions assuming a linear or t-squared heat release rate (HRR) time curve. Various cable fire growth assumptions were used to determine which assumption was better to provide the prediction coincident with the information given from the fire event analysis in terms of the sprinkler activation time and total energy generated from cables damaged by fire. In the comprehensive analysis of all the sensitive parameters, the standard deviation of the input parameters increased as the sprinkler height decreased. Within the range of the sensitivity parameter values given in this study, when considering all sprinkler heights, the standard deviation of the cable model change was the largest and that of the overhang position change was the smallest.

Growth curve estimates for wither height, hip height, and body length of Hanwoo steers (Bos taurus coreanae)

  • Park, Hu-Rak;Eum, Seung-Hoon;Roh, Seung-Hee;Sun, Du-Won;Seo, Jakyeom;Cho, Seong-Keun;Lee, Jung-Gyu;Kim, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.384-391
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    • 2017
  • Growth curves in Hanwoo steers were estimated by Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, Logistic, and Brody nonlinear models using growth data collected by the Hanwoo Improvement Center from a total of 6,973 Hanwoo (Bos taurus coreanae) steers 6 to 24 months old that were born between 1996 and 2015. The data included three parameters: A, mature size of body measurement; b, growth ratio; and, k, intrinsic growth rate. Nonlinear regression equations for wither height according to Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, Logistic, and Brody models were $Y_t=144.7e^{-0.5869e^{-0.00301t}}$, $Y_t=145.3(1-0.1816e^{-0.00284t})^3$, $Y_t=143.1(1+0.7356e^{-0.00352t})^{-1}$, and $Y_t=146.8(1+0.4700e^{-0.00249t})^1$, respectively, while those for hip height were $Y_t=144.5e^{-0.5549e^{-0.00312t}}$, $Y_t=145.0(1-0.1724e^{-0.00295t})^3$, $Y_t=143.1(1+0.6863e^{-0.00360t})^{-1}$, and $Y_t=146.2(1+0.4501e^{-0.00263t})^1$, respectively. Equations for body length $Y_t=174.1e^{-0.8342e^{-0.00289t}}$, $Y_t=175.8(1-0.2500e^{-0.00265t})^3$, $Y_t=170.0(1+1.1548e^{-0.00363t})^{-1}$, and $Y_t=180.3(1+0.6077e^{-0.00215t})^1$, respectively, for the same models. Among the four models, the Brody model resulted in the lowest mean square error, with mean square errors of 31.79, 30.57, and 42.13, respectively, for wither height, hip height, and body length. Also, an estimated birth wither height, birth hip height, and birth body length (77.98, 80.57, and 70.97 cm, respectively) were lower in the Brody model than in other models. An inflection point was not observed during the growth phase of Hanwoo steer according to the growth curves calculated using Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Logistic models. Based on the results, we concluded that the regression equation using the Brody model was the most appropriate among the four growth models. To obtain more accurate parameters, however, using data from a wider production period (from birth to shipping) would be required, and the development of a suitable model for body conformation traits would be needed.

Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products (자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축: ICT제품을 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Chung, Jaekwon;Chung, Yeo Jin;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

Photosynthetic Characteristics and Cell Quota of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Scenedesmus quadricauda under P Limitation (인제한에 따른 Scenedesmus quadricauda의 광합성 특성 및 질소, 이 함량 변화)

  • Ahn, Chi-Yong;Kim, Hee-Sik;Yoon, Byung-Dae;Oh, Hee-Mock
    • ALGAE
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.83-87
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    • 2002
  • Photosynthetic parameters of Scendesmus quadricauda, such as the maximum photosynthetic rate ($P_{max}$), photosynthetic efficiency (α) and the initial saturation intensity of irradiance for photosynthesis ($I_K$) were obtained using photosynthesis-irradiance (P-I) curve in a phosphorus-limited chemostat. S. quadricauda exhibitied no photoinhibition until at 200 μmol·$m^{-2}$ . $P_{max}$ (r=0.963, P=0.002) and $I_K$(r=0.904, P=0.013) showed linear relationships with growth rate. Chlorophyll-α concentration and cell dry weight decreased at higher growth rates, ut chlorophyll-α content per cell dry weight increased. The increase in photosynthetic rates at higher growth rates was due to the increase of $P_{max}$ and $I_K$ which was caused mainly by the increase in the absolute amount of chlorophyll-α rather than the increased photosynthetic efficiency of individual chlorphyll-α. The α did not show a significant relationship with growth rate (r=0.714, P=0.111). The cell quota of carbon (r=0.554, P=0.254) was not correlated with growth rate, but cell quota of nitrogen (r=0.818, P=0.047) and phosphorus (r=0.855, P=0.030) exhibited linear correlations with growth rate.

A Study on J-Resistance Curve of Low-Carbon Steel Using Center Cracked Tension Specimen (CCT 시험편을 이용한 저탄소강의 J 저항곡선에 관한 연구)

  • 고성위
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.40-45
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    • 1986
  • In this paper, the I-resistance curve of low-carbon steel with 3 mm thickness was investigated for various crack ratios. The experiments were carried out for the center cracked tension (CCT) specimen with about 50 mm width on an instron machine. The plane stress fracture toughness obtained by the Simpson's formula was Ii. = 24.96 kgffmm. Simpson's formula which considers crack growth in obtaining J integral showed more conservative lin than Rice's and Sumpter's. For materials that may be approximated by the Ramberg and Osgood stress strain law, the relevant crack parameters like the J integral, load line displacement are approximately normalized. Crack driving forces in terms of the I integral are computed for low-carbon steel CCT specimen using the above estimation scheme. Comparison of the prediction with actual experimental measurements by Simpson's formula showed good agreement for several different sized specimen.

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A Study on the Dynamic Fracture Toughness of Welding Structural Steels by Instrumented Impact Testing (계장화 충격시험법에 의한 구조용강 용접부의 동적 파괴인성에 관한 연구)

  • 김헌주;김경민;윤의박
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 1993
  • In this study, investigations were conducted in calculating parameters of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics using single specimen. The validity of these testing methods was judged by the confirmation of multiple specimen method of stop block test. The results were as follows: In order to measure a fracture toughness using the instrumented impact test, two general requirement must be considered; One, setting up proper impact velocity considered the effect of loading and the other, the necessity of low blow test for obtaining true energy by the compliance correction. It was possible to detect a crack initiation point by calculating the compliance changing rate from a load-defection curve. Criterion of a stable crack growth, $T_{mat}$ could be estimated by using key-curve method for a base metal. and combining Kaiser's rebound compliance with Paris-Hutchison's $T_{appl}$ equation for the brittled zone of welding heat affected.at affected.d.

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