• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.19-42
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• 2012

Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.396-404
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• 2016

In this paper, the customized sport convergence contents curation system is proposed for activation of sport for all. The proposed system collects and analyzes profile of social sports group(club, society, etc.) for recommend optimized sport convergence contents to user. And the survey is progressed for research problem of existed service and usefulness of proposed service. The proposed system and service are expected to design innovative new service model for activate of sport for all.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.66-73
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• 2007

Internet is a part of our common life and tremendous information is cumulated. In these trends, the personalization becomes a very important technology which could find exact information to present users. Previous personalized services use content based filtering which is able to recommend by analyzing the content and collaborative filtering which is able to recommend contents according to preference of users group. But, collaborative filtering needs the evaluation of some amount of data. Also, It cannot reflect all data of users because it recommends items based on data of some users who have similar inclination. Therefore, we need a new recommendation method which can recommend prefer items without preference data of users. In this paper, we proposed the apparel coordination system using personalized preference on the semantic web. This paper provides the results which this system can reduce the searching time and advance the customer satisfaction measurement according to user's feedback to system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.175-177
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• 2006

According to the recommendation of International Maritime Organization, the Ministry Of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (MOMAF) of Korea provides the real time Differential Global Positioning System service using maritime radio beacon from 1999. Due to the benefit of DGPS service, the need of this system is increased from various user groups for acquiring the better accuracy and integrity. Therefore, MOMAF has extended their service to inland by installing the additional 6 DGPS stations. This nationwide DGPS service will be fully deployed at 2007. In addition to the extension of service area, MOMAF has a plan to upgrade their nationwide DGPS to High Accuracy Nationwide DGPS (HANDGPS). The planned HANDGPS service of Korea will be a kind of long range RTK or Wide Area RTK techniques to provide under 1m accuracy and start their service from 2009 using the various broadcasting and communication media like as radio beacon, Wibro, Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, High Speed Packet Data Access. The introduction of nationwide DGPS system of Korea and its evolution plan will be addressed in this paper. The research activities related with HANDGPS in Korea is also presented.

• Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.423-429
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• 2004

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of multiple application of all-in-one dentin adhesive system on microtensile bond strength using confocal laser scanning microscope and microtensile bond strength test. Flat occlusal dentin surfaces were prepared using low-speed diamond saw. In group I, Scotchbond Multipurpose (SM) was applied by manufacturer's recommendation. In group II, after Adper Prompt L-Pop was applied for 15s and light cured for 10s. the second coat was re-applied and light-cured. In group III, after light-curing the second layer. the third coat was re-applied and light-cured. Specimens bonded with a resin-composite were sectioned into resin-dentin stick for measuring the adhesive layer thickness by confocal laser scanning microscope and evaluating micro-tensile bond strength. The adhesive layers of three-step dentin adhesive system. 3 coats of Adper Prompt L-Pop had significantly thicker than SM. 2 coats of Adper Prompt L-Pop (p < 0.05). However. there was no significant differences in bond strengths between SM and 3 coats of Adper Prompt L-Pop (p > 0.05). And SM. 3 coats of Adper Prompt L-Pop had significantly higher than 2 coats of Adper Prompt L-Pop in bond strengths (p < 0.05).

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.71-85
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• 2008

The rapid growth of blog has caused information overload where bloggers in the virtual community space are no longer able to effectively choose the blogs they are exposed to. Recommender systems have been widely advocated as a way of coping with the problem of information overload in e-business environment. Collaborative Filtering (CF) is the most successful recommendation method to date and used in many of the recommender systems. In this research, we propose a CF-based recommender system for bloggers to find their similar bloggers or preferable virtual community without burdensome search effort. For such a purpose, we apply the "Interest Value" to CF recommender systems. The Interest Value is the quantity value about users' transaction data in virtual community, and can measure the opinion of users accurately. Based on the Interest Value, the neighborhood group is generated, and virtual community list is recommended using the Community Likeness Score (ClS). Our experimental results upon real data of Korean Blog site show that the methodology is capable of dealing with the information overload issue in virtual community space. And Interest Value is proved to have the potential to meet the challenge of recommendation methodologies in virtual community space.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.473-476
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• 2000

최근 전자상거래에서 에이전트 기술들이 많이 나타나고 있는데, 주목해야 할 것은 패키지 형태로 내장될 수 있는 에이전트이다. 전자상거래 솔루션에 탑재되어 자동화시킨 에이전트로서 NetPerception 의 GroupLens 엔진과 MacroMedia의 LikeMinds가 있는데 이들은 협동적 필터링을 구현한 것들이다. 현재 이러한 협동적 필터링 에이전트 시스템이 탑재된 전자상거래 솔루션들이 등장하고 있다. 하지만 add-on 성격이 부족하고, 실제 협동적 필터링 알고리즘에 의해 고객의 취향이나 기호에 맞는 아이템을 추천하는 진정한 의미의 에이전트 시스템은 찾아보기 힘들다. 그래서, 이러한 점을 보완한 MindReader 시스템을 개발하였다. 제안된 알고리즘은 기존의 GroupLens 알고리즘에 클러스터링을 접목시킨 알고리즘을 사용하였다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.28 no.1_2
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• pp.439-450
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• 2010

In this paper, we propose a new idea to evaluate the prediction accuracy of user's preference generated by memory-based collaborative filtering algorithm before prediction process in the recommender system. Our analysis results show the possibility of a pre-evaluation before the prediction process of users' preference of item's transaction on the web. Classification functions proposed in this study generate a user's rating pattern under certain conditions. In this research, we test whether classification functions select users who have lower prediction or higher prediction performance under collaborative filtering recommendation approach. The statistical test results will be based on the differences of the prediction accuracy of each user group which are classified by classification functions using the generative probability of specific rating. The characteristics of rating patterns of classified users will also be presented.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2006.10b
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• pp.169-173
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• 2006

유비쿼터스 상거래에서 사용자가 정보를 효율적으로 이용할 수 있도록 제어하고 필터링하는 일을 도와주는 개인화된 추천 시스템이 등장하였다. 더 나아가서는 사용자가 원하는 아이템을 예측하고 추천해주며, 이를 위해 협력적 필터링 기술을 적용하고 있다. 이는 사용자의 성향에 맞는 아이템을 예측하고 추천하기 위하여 비슷한 선호도를 가지는 사용자들 간의 유사도 가중치를 계산한다. 본 논문에서는 속성정보에 대한 사용자의 선호도를 고려하지 않은 문제점을 개선하기 위해서 속성정보를 이용한 연관 사용자의 선호도를 협력적 필터링 기술에 반영함으로써 추천의 정확도를 높이고자 한다. 그리고 협력적 필터링의 {연관 사용자-아이템} 행렬에서 사용자들 간의 연관 관계를 유지하면서 차원 수를 감소시키기 위해 ARHP 알고리즘을 이용하여 연관 사용자 군집을 한다. 제안된 방법의 성능 평가를 하기 위해 사용자가 아이템에 대해서 평가한 MovieLens 데이터 집합을 대상으로 평가되었으며, 기존의 Nearest Neighbor Model과 K-Means 군집보다 그 성능이 우수함을 보인다.