• Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.193-206
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• 2021

This study aimed to identify the growth performance of Korean indigenous chicken pure-line by sex and twelve strains conserved in Poultry Research Institute, National Institute of Animal Science, Rural Development Administration. The effect of sex and strain on body weight was significantly different in every period, with males being heavier in all periods than females. In the case of biweekly weight gain, the tendency to increase rapidly from birth to six weeks old, and to decrease in the period from twelve to fourteen weeks old was common across all sex and strains. Depending on sex and strain, there were significant differences in age and the number of peaks. Regardless of sex and strain, the determination coefficient and adjusted determination coefficient showed high goodness of fit (99.1~99.9%) to growth functions. However, for each model, the goodness-of-fit had variations by sex and strains. von Betalanffy function had the best fit to growth curves in all the female strains except strain D. On the other hand, Gompertz function had the best fit for all the male strains except strain C. Logistic function showed the lowest goodness-of-fit in all sex and strains. Mature weights were in the order of von bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic models, while growth ratio and maturing rate followed the order of logistic, gompertz, and von bertalanffy functions. This information could be useful for Korean indigenous chicken management and designing crossbreeding tests and breeding programs.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.12D no.1 s.97
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• pp.103-110
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• 2005

Software Development is converting from structural to object oriented method. The later software development prefers the iterative process applications, not aterfall process and based on use case model, the requirements are expressed and based on this, analysis, design and coding are accomplished. Therefore, size of the software to be developed is estimated basing on use case and it is only possible to maintain the project success by estimating development effort, cost and development period. Even though development effort estimation models related current use case point. there is no appropriate development effort estimating. This paper shows, as a result of applying the development effort estimating model about UCP to the growth curve, a superior performance improvement to current statistical models. Therefore, estimation of development effort by applying this model, project development maintenance can be appropriately carried out.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2020

Predictive models in food microbiology are used for predicting microbial growth or death rates using mathematical and statistical tools considering the intrinsic and extrinsic factors of food. This study developed predictive growth models for Bacillus cereus on dried laver Pyropia pseudolinearis stored at different temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, and 25℃). Primary models developed for specific growth rate (SGR), lag time (LT), and maximum population density (MPD) indicated a good fit (R²≥0.98) with the Gompertz equation. The SGR values were 0.03, 0.08, and 0.12, and the LT values were 12.64, 4.01, and 2.17 h, at the storage temperatures of 15, 20, and 25℃, respectively. Secondary models for the same parameters were determined via nonlinear regression as follows: SGR=0.0228-0.0069*T₁+0.0005*T₁²; LT=113.0685-9.6256*T₁+0.2079*T₁²; MPD=1.6630+0.4284*T₁-0.0080*T₁² (where T₁ is the storage temperature). The appropriateness of the secondary models was validated using statistical indices, such as mean squared error (MSE<0.01), bias factor (0.99≤B_f≤1.07), and accuracy factor (1.01≤A_f≤1.14). External validation was performed at three random temperatures, and the results were consistent with each other. Thus, these models may be useful for predicting the growth of B. cereus on dried laver.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.51-68
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• 1994

Various growth models were each fitted onto the data sets in an attempt to determine which growth models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth data. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others in predicting future levels of growth. It is recommened that Weibull and the Gompertz growth curve be considered along with Pearl model by those industries presently considering the implementation of substitution analysis in their life analysis. In the early stage of growth, linear estimation should suffice to give reasonable forecasts. In the latter stage, however, as more data become availavle, nonlinear estimation should be used.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.108 no.3
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• pp.364-371
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• 2019

This study was conducted to provide the basic information for a reasonable forest management plan and sustainable forest management by developing a dominant tree height growth model using diameter at breast height (DBH) and site index curves for Pinus densiflora and Chamaecyparis obtusa growing in Jeolla-do. The altitude, slope, orientation, soil type, height and DBH of a dominant tree, and the ages of trees were measured for 3055 Pinus densiflora trees (611 plots) and 3345 Chamaecyparis obtusa trees (699 plots), and these data were used to develop a customized afforestation map. In the dominant tree height growth model, the relationship to DBH was used in the Petterson, Michailow, and log equations. Also, a dominant tree height growth model in relationship to age used the Chapman-Richards, Schumacher, and Gompertz equations. The Petterson equation, which has a lower mean square error, was used to model dominant tree height growth in relationship to DBH. In the model of dominant tree height growth in relationship to age, three kinds of equations were considered to have little statistical difference. Therefore, the Chapman-Richards equation was chosen for modeling on the national level. Thirtyyears was used as the base age, which is an important factor for estimating the site index curves. In the results, a more varied range of site index family curves with 6-18 was developed for Pinus densiflora, and with 6-22 for Chamaecyparis obtusa. As the new site index curves indicated influences on growth of Pinus densiflora and Chamaecyparis obtusa, a reasonable forest management plan will be possible in the future for Jeolla-do.

• IE interfaces
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.103-110
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• 2003

Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.27 no.9
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• pp.1250-1253
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• 2014

The objective of this study was to estimate the parameters of Gompertz growth curves with the measurements of body conformation, real-time ultrasound longissimus dorsi muscle area (LMA) and backfat thickness (BFT) in Hanwoo cows. The Hanwoo cows (n = 3,373) were born in 97 Hanwoo commercial farms in the 17 cities or counties of Gyeongbuk province, Korea, between 2000 and 2007. A total of 5,504 ultrasound measurements were collected for the cows at the age of 13 to 165 months in 2007 and 2008. Wither height (HW), rump height (HR), the horizontal distance between the top of the hips (WH), and girth of chest (GC) were also measured. Analysis of variance was conducted to investigate variables affecting LMA and BFT. The effect of farm nested in location was included in the statistical model, as well as the effects of HW, HR, WH, and GC as covariates. All of the effects were significant in the analysis of variance for LMA and BFT (p<0.01), except for the HR effect for LMA. The two ultrasound measures and the four body conformation traits were fitted to a Gompertz growth curve function to estimate parameters. Upper asymptotic weights were estimated as $54.0cm^2$, 7.67 mm, 125.6 cm, 126.4 cm, 29.3 cm, and 184.1 cm, for LMA, BFT, HW, HR, WH, and GC, respectively. Results of ultrasound measurements showed that Hanwoo cows had smaller LMA and greater BFT than other western cattle breeds, suggesting that care must be taken to select for thick BFT rather than an increase of only beef yield. More ultrasound records per cow are needed to get accurate estimates of growth curve, which, thus, helps producers select animals with high accuracy.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.342-348
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• 2016

The objective of this study was to compare the change of S. Enteritidis with S. Typhimurium populations in liquid egg products. S. Enteritidis or S. Typhimurium was inoculated into egg white and egg yolk and stored at 8, 10, 15, 25, and $35^{\circ}C$, respectively. In egg white, no growth of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium was observed at 8, 10, 15, and $35^{\circ}C$, while both S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium in egg white stored grew more than 1 log CFU/ml after 50 hours storage at $25^{\circ}C$. In egg yolk, there was no growth of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium at $8^{\circ}C$ but growth of both strains was observed at 10, 15, 25, and $35^{\circ}C$. Since growth of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium was only observed in egg yolk, primary growth models for both strains were developed using modified Gompertz equation and then secondary models for lag time (LT), specific growth rate (SGR), and maximum population density (MPD) were developed as a function of temperature. At all temperatures, more rapid growth of S. Enteritidis than S. Typhimurium was observed in egg yolk, indicating the greater risk of S. Enteritidis than S. Typhimurium in egg products. In conclusion, the results indicate that temperature control less than $8^{\circ}C$ is very important to ensure safety of liquid egg products, especially liquid egg yolk.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.374-379
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• 2019

This study developed predictive growth models of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium on lettuce washed with chlorine (100~300 ppm) and ultrasound (US, 37 kHz, 380 W) treatment and stored at different temperatures ($10{\sim}25^{\circ}C$) using a polynomial equation. The primary model of specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) showed a good fit ($R^2{\geq}0.92$) with a Gompertz equation. A secondary model was obtained using a quadratic polynomial equation. The appropriateness of the secondary SGR and LT model was verified by coefficient of determination ($R^2=0.98{\sim}0.99$ for internal validation, 0.97~0.98 for external validation), mean square error (MSE=-0.0071~0.0057 for internal validation, -0.0118~0.0176 for external validation), bias factor ($B_f=0.9918{\sim}1.0066$ for internal validation, 0.9865~1.0205 for external validation), and accuracy factor ($A_f=0.9935{\sim}1.0082$ for internal validation, 0.9799~1.0137 for external validation). The newly developed models for S. Typhimurium could be incorporated into a tertiary modeling program to predict the growth of S. Typhimurium as a function of combined chlorine and US during the storage. These new models may also be useful to predict potential S. Typhimurium growth on lettuce, which is important for food safety purposes during the overall supply chain of lettuce from farm to table. Finally, the models may offer reliable and useful information of growth kinetics for the quantification microbial risk assessment of S. Typhimurium on washed lettuce.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.62-67
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• 2012

This study calculated kinetic parameters of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and developed a probabilistic model to estimate growth probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 on polyethylene cutting boards as a function of temperature and time. The surfaces of polyethylene coupons ($3{\times}5$ cm) were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 NCCP11142 at 4 Log $CFU/cm^2$. The coupons were stored at 13 to $35^{\circ}C$ for 12 h, and cell counts of E. coli O157:H7 were enumerated on McConkey II with sorbitol agar every 2 h. Kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate, Log $CFU/cm^2/h$; lag phase duration, h; lower asymptote, Log $CFU/cm^2$; upper asymptote, Log $CFU/cm^2$) were calculated with the modified Gompertz model. Of 56 combinations (temperature${\times}$time), the combinations that had ${\geq}$0.5 Log $CFU/cm^2$ of bacterial growth were designated with the value of 1, and the combinations that had increases of <0.5 Log $CFU/cm^2$ were given the value 0. These growth response data were fitted to the logistic regression to develop the model predicting probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Specific growth rate and growth data showed that E. coli O157:H7 cells were grown at $28-35^{\circ}C$, but there were no obvious growth of the pathogen below $25^{\circ}C$. Moreover, the developed probabilistic model showed acceptable performance to calculate growth probability of E. coli O157:H7. Therefore, the results should be useful in determining upper limits of working temperature and time, inhibiting E. coli O157:H7 growth on polyethylene cutting board.