• Title/Summary/Keyword: Gomperts model

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Technology Gap Prediction and Technology Catchup Strategy for High-Speed Rail Vehicles (고속철도차량의 기술격차 예측과 기술추격 전략)

  • Kim, Hyung Jin;Kim, Si Gon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2023
  • This study started with questioning the fact that in the assessmentof technology, which has taken place every two years since 2010, the technology gap in the most technologically advanced countries was evaluated as 4-5 years in each evaluation. To interrogate this question, regression estimation was performed using the Gompertz model based on time series data for technology level evaluation. As a result, it would take 17 years for high-speed rail vehicle technology to reach the level of 95 % of the country with the highest technology, and 72 years to reach the level of 100 %. Recognizing the technology gap is important in establishing a technology catchup strategy. A collaborative technology catchup strategy is the best strategy for moving to an original technology development stage while competing with large global leaders without much domestic market demand. This can occur regardless of where Korea is located in the technology catchup stage.