• Title/Summary/Keyword: Global modeling

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Enhancing Medium-Range Forecast Accuracy of Temperature and Relative Humidity over South Korea using Minimum Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) Statistical Correction Technique (연속 순위 확률 점수를 활용한 통합 앙상블 모델에 대한 기온 및 습도 후처리 모델 개발)

  • Hyejeong Bok;Junsu Kim;Yeon-Hee Kim;Eunju Cho;Seungbum Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems: Research Status and Challenges in Korea (기후변화에 따른 산림생태계 영향: 우리나라 연구현황과 과제)

  • Lim Jong-Hwan;Shin Joon-Hwan;Lee Don-Koo;Suh Seung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2006
  • Recent global warming seems to be dramatic and has influenced forest ecosystems. Changes in phonology of biota, species distribution range shift and catastrophic climatic disasters due to recent global warming have been observed during the last century. Korean forests located mainly in the temperate zone also have been experienced climatic change impacts including shifting of leafing and flowering phonology, changes in natural disasters and forest productivity, However, little research has been conducted on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in Korea which is essential to assess the impact and extent of adaptation. Also there is a shortage in basic long-term data of forest ecosystem processes. Careful data collection and ecological process modeling should be focused on characteristic Korean forest ecosystems which are largely complex terrain that might have hindered research activities. An integrative ecosystem study which covers forest dynamics, biological diversity, water and carbon flux and cycles in a forest ecosystem and spatial and temporal dynamics modeling is introduced. Global warming effects on Korean forest ecosystems are reviewed. Forestry activity and the importance of forest ecosystems as a dynamic carbon reservoir are discussed. Forest management options and challenges for future research, impact assessment, and preparation of mitigating measures in Korea are proposed.

Spherical Slepian Harmonic Expression of the Crustal Magnetic Vector and Its Gradient Components (구면 스레피안 함수로 표현된 지각 자기이상값과 구배 성분)

  • Kim, Hyung Rae
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.269-280
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    • 2016
  • I presented three vector crustal magnetic anomaly components and six gradients by using spherical Slepian functions over the cap area of $20^{\circ}$ of radius centered on the South Pole. The Swarm mission, launched by European Space Agency(ESA) in November of 2013, was planned to put three satellites into the low-Earth orbits, two in parallel in East-West direction and one in cross-over of the higher altitude. This orbit configuration will make the gradient measurements possible in North-South direction, vertical direction, as well as E-W direction. The gravity satellites, such as GRACE and GOCE, have already implemented their gradient measurements for recovering the accurate gravity of the Earth and its temporal variation due to mass changes on the subsurface. However, the magnetic gradients have little been applied since Swarm launched. A localized magnetic modeling method is useful in taking an account for a region where data availability was limited or of interest was special. In particular, computation to get the localized solutions is much more efficient and it has an advantage of presenting high frequency anomaly features with numbers of solutions fewer than the global ones. Besides, these localized basis functions that were done by a linear transformation of the spherical harmonic functions, are orthogonal so that they can be used for power spectrum analysis by transforming the global spherical harmonic coefficients. I anticipate in scientific and technical progress in the localized modeling with the gradient measurements from Swarm and here will do discussion on the results of the localized solution to represent the three vector and six gradient anomalies over the Antarctic area from the synthetic data derived from a global solution of the spherical harmonics for the crustal magnetic anomalies of Swarm measurements.

Analyzing off-line Noah land surface model spin-up behavior for initialization of global numerical weather prediction model (전지구수치예측모델의 토양수분 초기화를 위한 오프라인 Noah 지면모델 스핀업 특성분석)

  • Jun, Sanghee;Park, Jeong-Hyun;Boo, Kyung-On;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.181-191
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    • 2020
  • In order to produce accurate initial condition of soil moisture for global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), spin-up experiment is carried out using Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). The model is run repeatedly through 10 years, under the atmospheric forcing condition of 2008-2017 until climatological land surface state is achieved. Spin-up time for the equilibrium condition of soil moisture exhibited large variability across Koppen-Geiger climate classification zone and soil layer. Top soil layer took the longgest time to equilibrate in polar region. From the second layer to the fourth layer, arid region equilibrated slower (7 years) than other regions. This result means that LSM reached to equilibrium condition within 10 year loop. Also, spin-up time indicated inverse correlation with near surface temperature and precipitation amount. Initialized from the equilibrium state, LSM was spun up to obtain land surface state in 2018. After 6 months from restarted run, LSM simulates soil moisture, skin temperature and evaportranspiration being similar land surface state in 2018. Based on the results, proposed LSM spin-up system could be used to produce proper initial soil moisture condition despite updates of physics or ancillaries for LSM coupled with NWP.

Spatial analysis based on topic modeling using foreign tourist review data: Case of Daegu (외국인 관광객 리뷰데이터를 활용한 토픽모델링 기반의 공간분석: 대구광역시를 사례로)

  • Jung, Ji-Woo;Kim, Seo-Yun;Kim, Hyeon-Yu;Yoon, Ju-Hyeok;Jang, Won-Jun;Kim, Keun-Wook
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2021
  • As smartphone-based tourism platforms have become active, policy establishment and service enhancement using review data are being made in various fields. In the case of the preceding studies using tourism review data, most of the studies centered on domestic tourists were conducted, and in the case of foreign tourist studies, studies were conducted only on data collected in some languages and text mining techniques. In this study, 3,515 review data written by foreigners were collected by designating the "Daegu attractions" keyword through the online review site. And LDA-based topic modeling was performed to derive tourism topics. The spatial approach through global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis for each topic can be said to be different from previous studies. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that there is a global spatial autocorrelation, and that tourist destinations mainly visited by foreigners are concentrated locally. In addition, hot spots have been drawn around Jung-gu in most of the topics. Based on the analysis results, it is expected to be used as a basic research for spatial analysis based on local government foreign tourism policy establishment and topic modeling. And The limitations of this study were also presented.

Effect of Grid, Turbulence Modeling and Discretization on the Solution of CFD (격자, 난류모형 및 이산화 방법이 유동해석 결과에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Dong-Woo;Yoon, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2014
  • The current work investigated the variation of numerical solutions according to the grid number, the distance of the first grid point off the ship surface, turbulence modeling and discretization. The subject vessel is KVLCC. A commercial code, Gridgen V15 and FLUENT were used the generation of the ship hull surface and spatial system and flow computation. The first part of examination, the effect of solutions were accessed depending on the grid number, turbulence modeling and discretization. The second part was focus on the suitable selection of the distance of the first grid point off the ship surface: $Y_P+$. When grid number and discretization were fixed the same value, the friction resistance showed differences within 1 % but the pressure resistance showed big differences 9 % depending on the turbulence modeling. When $Y_P+$ were set 30 and 50 for the same discretization, friction resistance showed almost same results within 1 % according to the turbulence modeling. However, when $Y_P+$ were fixed 100, friction resistance showed more differences of 3 % compared to $Y_P+$ of 30 and 50. Whereas pressure resistance showed big differences of 10 % regardless of turbulence modeling. When turbulence modeling and discretization were set the same value, friction, pressure and total resistance showed almost same result within 0.3 % depending on the grid number. Lastly, When turbulence modeling and discretization were fixed the same value, the friction resistance showed differences within 5~8 % but the pressure resistance showed small differences depending on the $Y_P+$.

Fatigue Strength Analysis of Pontoon Type VLFS Using Spectral Method (통계해석법에 의한 폰툰식 VLFS의 피로강도해석)

  • Park, Seong-Whan;Han, Jeong-Woo;Han, Seung-Ho;Ha, Tae-Bum;Lee, Hong-Gu;Hong, Sa-Young;Kim, Byoung-Wan;Kyoung, Jo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.43 no.3 s.147
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    • pp.351-361
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    • 2006
  • The fatigue strength analysis of VLFS is carried out by using a 3-dimensional plate finite element model with a zooming technology which performs the modeling of wide portions of the structure by a coarse mesh but the concerned parts by a very fine mesh of t by t level. And a stepwise substructure modeling technique for global loading conditions is applied which uses the motion response of the global structure from 2-D plate hydroelastic analysis as the enforcing nodal displacements of the concern 3-D structural zooming model. Seven incident wave angles and whole ranges of frequency domains of wave spectrum are considered. In order to consider the effect of breakwater, the modified JONSWAP wave spectrum is used. Applying the wave data of installation region, the longterm spectrum analysis is done based on stochastic process and the fatigue life of the structure is estimated. Finally some design considerations from the view point of fatigue strength analysis of VLFS are discussed.

On Processing Raw Data from Micrometeorological Field Experiments (미기상학 야외실험에서 얻어지는 자료 처리에 관하여)

  • Hong, Jin-kyu;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2002
  • Recently, the flux community in Korea established a new regional flux network, so-called KoFlux, which will provide an infrastructure for collecting, synthesizing, and analysing long-term measurements of energy and mass exchange between the atmosphere and the various vegetated surfaces. KoFlux requires the collection of long time series of raw data, and a large amount of data are expected to accumulate due to continuous flux observations at each KoFlux sites. Therefore, we need a systematic and efficient tool to manage these raw data. As a part of this effort, a computer program far processing raw data measured from micrometeorological field experiments was developed for the flux community in Korea. In this paper, we introduce this program for processing raw data to estimate fluxes and other turbulent statistics and explain the micrometeolological processes coded in this data-processing program. Also, we show some examples on how to run the program and handle the outputs for the unique purpose of research interest.

Assessment of Changed Input Modules with SMOKE Model (SMOKE 모델의 입력 모듈 변경에 따른 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Jeong-Soo;Hong, Ji-Hyung;Jung, Dong-Il;Ban, Soo-Jin;Lee, Yong-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.284-299
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    • 2008
  • Emission input modules was developed to produce emission input data and change some profiles for Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) using Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)'s activities and previous studies. Specially, this study was focused to improve chemical speciation and temporal allocation profiles of SMOKE. At first, SCC cord mapping was done. 579 SCC cords of CAPSS were matched with EPA's one. Temporal allocation profiles were changed using CAPSS monthly activities. And Chemical speciation profiles were substituted using Kang et al. (2000) and Lee et al. (2005) studies and Kim et al. (2005) study. Simulation in Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi) using MM5, SMOKE and CMAQ modeling system was done for effect analysis of changed input modules of SMOKE. Emission model results adjusted with new input modules were slightly changed as compared to using EPA's default modules. SMOKE outputs shows that aldehyde emissions were decreased 4.78% after changing chemical profiles, increased 0.85% after implementing new temporal profiles. Toluene emissions were decreased 18.56% by changing chemical speciation profiles, increased 0.67% by replacing temporal profiles as well. Simulated results of air quality were also slightly elevated by using new input modules. Continuous accumulation of domestic data and studies to develop input system for air quality modeling would produce more improved results of air quality prediction.

Modeling of cyclic joint shear deformation contributions in RC beam-column connections to overall frame behavior

  • Shin, Myoungsu;LaFave, James M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.645-669
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    • 2004
  • In seismic analysis of moment-resisting frames, beam-column connections are often modeled with rigid joint zones. However, it has been demonstrated that, in ductile reinforced concrete (RC) moment-resisting frames designed based on current codes (to say nothing of older non-ductile frames), the joint zones are in fact not rigid, but rather undergo significant shear deformations that contribute greatly to global drift. Therefore, the "rigid joint" assumption may result in misinterpretation of the global performance characteristics of frames and could consequently lead to miscalculation of strength and ductility demands on constituent frame members. The primary objective of this paper is to propose a rational method for estimating the hysteretic joint shear behavior of RC connections and for incorporating this behavior into frame analysis. The authors tested four RC edge beam-column-slab connection subassemblies subjected to earthquake-type lateral loading; hysteretic joint shear behavior is investigated based on these tests and other laboratory tests reported in the literature. An analytical scheme employing the modified compression field theory (MCFT) is developed to approximate joint shear stress vs. joint shear strain response. A connection model capable of explicitly considering hysteretic joint shear behavior is then formulated for nonlinear structural analysis. In the model, a joint is represented by rigid elements located along the joint edges and nonlinear rotational springs embedded in one of the four hinges linking adjacent rigid elements. The connection model is able to well represent the experimental hysteretic joint shear behavior and overall load-displacement response of connection subassemblies.