In this study, we try to investigate the spillover effects of volatility in international tourists arrivals between Korea and US, Japan, China by using the multivariate BEKK model from January 2005 to January 2013. In the results of this study, after the global financial crisis, we found a cointegration relationship and tourist arrivals of Japan were adjusted to recovery in the short term. Also tourists arrivals from China and Japan showed the long-term elasticity. In the conditional mean equation of a BEKK model, there were the spillover effects. And in the conditional variance equation, ARCH(${\epsilon}^2_t$) coefficients showed a strong influence on the arrivals of their own and the spillover effects and the asymmetric effects on the volatility of China and Japan arrivals. In GARCH(${\sigma}^2_t$) coefficients showed the asymmetric effects and the spillover effects of the conditional volatility among source arrivals. Therefore, we examined the asymmetric reaction of one-way or two-way tourist arrivals between source countries and Korea and the spillover effects related to tourists arrivals of source countries to Korea. We has confirmed a causal relationship between some of the tourists arrivals from source countries to korea.
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
/
v.23
no.2
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pp.257-269
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2012
Global crisis expedites the change in the environment of industry and puts small size enterprises in danger of mass bankruptcy. Because of this, domestic small size enterprises is an urgent need of restructuring. Based on the small business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time which are distinguished depending on the types of business in the small business. Financial variables were also conducted using COX regression analysis of small businesses by types of business. In terms of types of business wholesale and retail trade industry and services were relatively high in the survival probability than light, heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. In addition, we found that construction industry, the bigger BIS (bank of international settlements capital ratio) and current ratio are, the smaller default-rate is. But the bigger borrowing bond is, the bigger default-rate is. In the light industry, the bigger BIS and ROA (return on assets) are, the smaller a default-rate is. In the wholesale and retail trade industry, the bigger bis and current ratio are, the smaller a default-rate is. In the heavy industry, the bigger BIS, ROA, current ratio are, the smaller default-rate is. Finally, in the services industry, the bigger current ratio is, the smaller a default-rate is.
This comparative study attempts to explore in what politico-social context 'Education Welfare Invest Priority Zone Plan' has been developed and to find politico-social implications of Korean EWIPZP through critically comparing the cases of UK and France. Korean financial crisis brought up the importance of 'Education Welfare' turning into a concrete system, 'EWIPZP' in 2003. This educational welfare policy has expanded since 2005 up to now by the changed name of 'Education Welfare Priority Plan' in 2008, that is structurally different from the original framework which was to support schools in educationally disadvantaged areas. Even the cases of EAZ in UK and ZEP in France started by progressive political parties and established on the ground of 'equity' philosophy, turned into the excellence-based equality policy confronting with the harsh condition of neo-liberalistic global economy under the conservative regime. So does Korea under the critics against this tendency. Comparing Korean case with the cases in UK and France, the current Education Welfare Priority Policy in Korea should be back to the original principle of educational equity and transform into the bottom-up bilateral cooperation model from the top-down model by the authorized party itself in order not to be manipulated politically.
In this study, the occurrence and degree of herding behavior as a market participant behavior in a housing market were analyzed. For the analysis method, the actual sales price was applied in the CSAD (Cross-sectional Absolute Deviation) model, which has been used the most of late for herding behavior analysis. For the analysis contents, these were subdivided into region, elapsed year, size, and market condition to analyze the regionality and the internal and external factors. For the study results, first, there was no herding behavior in the entire region of Seoul. By region, herding behavior occurred in the downtown, southeast, and northwest regions, which coincided with the results of the precedent study (Ngene et al., 2017). Second, in the market analysis by elapsed year, herding behavior was captured in dilapidated dwellings. By size, herding behavior was observed in small-scale ($60m^2$ or less) apartments and in $85m^2$ or higher and less than $102m^2$ national housing units. Third, during the time of the global financial crisis, herding behavior was not observed in all the regions, whereas when the market situations were in a boom cycle, it was observed in the northwest region. These results suggest that there is a difference from the stock market, where in a period of recession, herding behavior occurs intensively with the expanding fear of incurring losses. This study is significant in that it analyzed the market participant behaviors in the behavioral economic aspects to better understand the abnormal phenomenon in a housing market, and in that it additionally provides a psychological factor - market participant behavior - in market analysis.
Since the 1990s rising intangible asset has become one of the main driving forces of investment stagnation and jobless growth in advanced income countries. We investigate how does the impact of firms' profitability on employment growth depends on the intangibility and whether the relationship between profitability and tangibility has complementarity. With data on Korean firms over the period 1988~2017 we investigate the effects of intangibility and profitability on employment growth based on the econometric approach of system GMM. The empirical results are as follows. (1) the profit rate has gradually led to lower employment growth, while it had positive effect on employment before the period of financial crisis. The estimated values and signs of profit rate coefficients varies from traditional industries to high/medium tech. industries. (2) the effect of increasing asset intangibility ratio on employment growth is negative and statistically significant. (3) the coefficients of interaction term of (profit rate ${\times}$ intangibility ratio) have significant negative values. It means employment effect of profit rate are becoming higher(lower) as intangibility ratio is at the lower(higher) level; profits rate and intangibility are not complement with each other. The results imply that to boost employment industrial policy which has the capacity to coordinate business intangibility is preferred to expansionary demand policy.
The impact of the global financial crisis, which began in the United States in 2007, had a major impact on the domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries. In this regard, the domestic shipyard has established an order-taking strategy in several ways as an alternative to lowering the amount of construction of commercial vessels due to deterioration of the shipping industry, and selected industrial sector was the offshore plant sector. However, the domestic shipyard has under performed the offshore plant in order to just increase sales and secure work without any risk analysis for EPC contracts. As a result, the shipyard has been charged more than the initial contract price with the offshore plant contractor, or the shipyard has become a legal issue requiring payment of liquidated damages due to delays in delivery of the product. The main legal disputes are caused by the thorough risk analysis and the inexperience of process control that can occur during offshore plant construction. and In particular, there is no sufficient review of the unequivocal provisions in the contract as an element of risk management. There is no human resource to review these contractual clauses. Therefore, this study identifies the existence of specific risks that could lead to delays in offshore plant construction, and examined the existence of any unequivocal clauses in contracts for offshore plant construction. and also discussed how the toxic clause applies to the actual parties and how the concrete risk factors in the construction contracts are transferred and expressed by referring to the interviews with the project manager of the domestic shipyard and the previous research. As a result, This paper examined the legal liability of the contracting parties regarding delayed delivery of the products due to the offshore plant construction contract. And to improve the domestic shipbuilding industry.
The coronavirus pandemic has brought about significant negative changes in our society to the point where it has to be divided into 'Before Corona'(BC) and 'After Corona'(AC). Typical examples include economic difficulties and medical inequality of some social excluded groups as well as individuals who die alone because they are alienated from social networks, and hate and violent discrimination against Asian immigrants, which are rapidly increasing in Western countries in these days. In addition, the pandemic is at a global level, ranging from the vaccine gap between the first and third worlds, triggered by competition for securing vaccines between countries that put their own interests first, the income gap due to changes in the economic environment and financial market, and the bankruptcy of individuals and corporations. In 'all'(pan) and 'people'(demos) became a limit situation that could not be avoided. There is also the opinion that the world could witness the worst catastrophe if the pandemic spreads to poor countries at risk of increasing violence, poverty and famine. The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in society caused by the Coronavirus pandemic and to suggest the direction of Christian education accordingly. To this end, this paper analyzes the medical, economic, and psychological crises that society faces in the post-corona era. Next, we look at the changes in Christian theology, mission, and worship, which are strongly required for fundamental changes in the context of the pandemic. Based on the above discussion, we propose a new direction for Christian education necessary in the post-corona era.
This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.
Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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v.7
no.1
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pp.189-206
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2012
It is urgently requested to innovate the management process of business-service areas in all industry such as financial business, services and manufacturing because of recent business trend - de-manufacturing trend and the weight increment of service in all industries. Many enterprises introduce various management - innovation methodologies in order to meet the rapidly changing business environment. Especially in Korea, it is a vogue to introduce the innovation methodology of the advanced company's. According to this style, the six sigma has been introduced over 10 years since late 1990's and it has become a synonym of innovation indeed. But the result of six sigma introduction has not reached to the level of expectation in its beginning. And the "Lean" have been introduced in Korea in the situation of global financial crisis, economic slump and the pursuit of developing country such as China. Many Korea companies pay attention to the "Lean" innovation activity because the TPS(Toyota Production System) is the matrix of Lean and is the motive power of Toyota growth. In this study, it was analyzed for the evolution course, distinctive features and effects of Lean management and was examined for the difference of Lean management between manufacturing industry and business-service areas. From this results, the characteristics of Lean management in business-service was analyzed. After survey of innovation agent in Korea company, the Lean model of business-service Industry was developed and applied. This study will be worthy to show the right direction to the enterprises which are to apply lean methodologies, or the enterprises which examine lean management for competitive advantages or the peoples who research the same topics.
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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v.19
no.2
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pp.279-292
/
2018
Unlike the global art market which experienced rapid recovery from the impacts of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the Korean art market has not yet fully recovered. The gallery-oriented distribution system, vulnerable primary art market functions, and the market structure centered on a small number of collectors make it difficult for young and medium artists to enter the market and, as a result, deepen the economic polarization of artists. In addition, the high price of art works limits market participation by restricting the general public. This study began with the idea that the interest of the public in the art market as well as their participation in the market are urgent. To this end, we noted that public awareness of art transactions can be a starting point for improving the constitution of the fragile art market, focusing on the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' rather than existing art fairs. To examine the contribution of such an art fair to the popularization of the art market, we analyzed the case of the 'Visual Artist Market (VAM)' project of the Korea Arts Management Service. Results found that the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' focuses on providing opportunities for market entry to young and medium artists rather than on the interests of distributors, and promotes the popularization of the art market by promoting low-priced works to the general public. Also, the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' seems to play a primary role in the public sector to foster solid groups of artists as well as to establish healty distribution networks of Korean Art market. However, in the long run, it is necessary to promote sustainable development of the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' through indirect support, such as the provision of a publicity platform or consumer finance support, rather than direct support.
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