• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.189-201
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• 2022

The study empirically examines the impact of monetary fundamentals along with global oil prices on the Pak-rupee exchange rate using the monthly data over 2001-2020. Employing the cointegrating vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) and vector error correction model with exogenous variables (VECMX), the study analyzes the impact of domestic monetary fundamentals while considering the foreign variables as weakly exogenous. In order to account for the structural breaks in the data, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with two structural breaks has been used (Lee & Strazicich, 2003). The empirical results reveal that the domestic and foreign monetary variables significantly explain the exchange rate movements in Pakistan both in the long run and in the short run. The dynamic properties of the monetary model of exchange rate have been analyzed using the persistence profile analysis and generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that the responses of shocks to domestic monetary fundamentals are consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Furthermore, being a net oil importer, a rise in global oil prices significantly depreciated the Pak-rupee exchange rate over the period of study. The global financial crisis (GFC) and pandemic (COVID-19) were also found to cause the Pak-rupee exchange rate depreciation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2022

Oil prices have become more volatile as a result of global economic contraction and control measures. Before and during the COVID-19 crisis, this study examines the relationship between oil price swings and daily stock returns in the power sector. The impact is investigated using a panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality tests are used to see if oil prices are effective in predicting returns. The dynamic impact of supply shocks is studied using Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). From January 2011 to May 2021, the study used daily data from all listed power sector enterprises on the Pakistan stock exchange. To investigate the differences in reactions between the Pre-COVID and COVID eras, the sample was separated into two groups. Oil shocks are inversely associated with daily firm stock returns. The conclusions are further supported by the lack of impact of stock prices on oil prices. The relationship, however, deteriorates during the COVID pandemic. We could not uncover any evidence of a significant relationship. In developing countries that rely on oil imports, the study sheds light on the utility of oil price shocks in daily stock return predictions.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.105-124
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• 2009

The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.273-284
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• 2024

This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R²), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.53-57
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• 2007

High oil prices and high demand supporting IOC move to frontier and NOC evolution. Most frontier area reserves are in NOC territory. IOCs need to be able to manage relationships with NOCs in order to be successful. They need to tune into what NOC priorities are. NOCs have different priorities depending on whether they are resource rich or resource poor. IOCs need to recognize $NOCs^{\circ}{\emptyset}$ priorities and differentiate themselves by using them when talking to NOCs.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.64-73
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• 2011

Oil price prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the government and the related industries. When employing the time series techniques for prediction, however, it becomes difficult and challenging since the behavior of the series of oil prices is dominated by quantitatively unexplained irregular external factors, e.g., supply- or demand-side shocks, political conflicts specific to events in the Middle East, and direct or indirect influences from other global economical indices, etc. Identifying and quantifying the relationship between oil price and those external factors may provide more relevant prediction than attempting to unclose the underlying structure of the series itself. Technically, this implies the prediction is to be based on the vectoral data on the degrees of the relationship rather than the series data. This paper proposes a novel method for time series prediction of using Semi-Supervised Learning that was originally designed only for the vector types of data. First, several time series of oil prices and other economical indices are transformed into the multiple dimensional vectors by the various types of technical indicators and the diverse combination of the indicator-specific hyper-parameters. Then, to avoid the curse of dimensionality and redundancy among the dimensions, the wellknown feature extraction techniques, PCA and NLPCA, are employed. With the extracted features, a timepointspecific similarity matrix of oil prices and other economical indices is built and finally, Semi-Supervised Learning generates one-timepoint-ahead prediction. The series of crude oil prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was used to verify the proposed method, and the experiments showed promising results : 0.86 of the average AUC.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.663-670
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• 2016

This paper analyzes the asymmetric pass-through effects of crude oil price changes on export prices in Korea's manufacturing sector using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. These pass-through effects are important for Korean companies that are highly dependent on exports. Because the effects differ by industry, eight sectors of the manufacturing industry were examined. The model is effective for separately testing the long-term and short-term differences between the export-price pass-through effects when crude oil prices increase and decrease. The estimation results show that there is positive pass-through to export prices as crude oil prices change, and there are asymmetric effects in some manufacturing sectors. Short-term asymmetries were detected in the export prices of five sectors that include general machinery and transport equipment, and significant long-term asymmetries were found for petroleum and coal products and for textile and leather products. The long-term export price of oil and coal products rose by 0.992% with a 1% increase in the oil price and fell by 0.977% with 1% decrease. Therefore, corporate strategies and government export policies should be established in accordance with these asymmetric pass-through effects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 가을학술발표대회논문집
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• pp.213-214
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• 2023

The burden of housing heating costs has increased as energy prices such as global oil prices (28.1%), LNG (38%) and minerals (100%) have soared due to the Ukraine crisis. Accordingly, an electrically conductive cement composites had developed using waste carbon materials such as waste cathode materials, waste CNTs, and waste carbon fibers, and the heat generation performance was evaluated.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2017

This study investigates the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for six Middle Eastern countries, namely, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia before and during (after) the 2007 global financial crisis for the period between January 2004 and September 2015. The sample is divided into two sub-periods, that is, the period from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 and the period from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2015, to represent the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period, respectively. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in a multivariate framework (including two control variables, inflation rates and oil prices) the results suggest that in the case of Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there exists bidirectional causalities after the crisis period but not the before. The opposite status is available for the case of Iran. In the case of Oman, there is bidirectional causality between the variables of interest in both periods. The results also reveal that the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has become stronger after the 2007 global financial crisis. Overall, the results of this study indicate that fluctuations in foreign exchange markets can significantly affect stock markets in the Middle East.

• Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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• 대한설비공학회 2008년도 하계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.794-800
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• 2008

Due to high oil prices and global warming problems, researching an alternative energy source and decreasing the energy usage will be the key in the future. Unlike other alternative energy sources, geothermal energy is less dependent on the surrounding environment. Geothermal energy is the ideal energy source for buildings due to the simple and space saving installation. The system is semi permanent once it is installed and this will help reduce the energy usage in controlling the climate in buildings. Geothermal energy does not emit carbon dioxide and other gases that are harmful to the environment. Therefore geothermal energy will be the key in solving high oil prices and a decrease in fossil fuels by applying the geothermal energy system to detached house to counter future energy crisis.