• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.337-342
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 GDAPS(Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) 예보모델자료와 위성기반 식생건조지수를 결합시킨 산불위험지수 WRI(Wildfire Risk Index)를 개발하였고, 이를 2019년 4월 4일의 고성-속초 산불과 강릉-동해 산불 사례에 적용해 보았다. 제시한 산불위험지수 WRI는 강수 이벤트 후에 건조 경향이 지속되었던 3월 19일 전후와 4월 4일 전후의 산불위험도 변화를 잘 나타냄으로써, 그 적합성이 확인되었다. WRI는 우리나라 산불취약성의 상시 감시를 위한 하나의 방법이 될 수 있을 것이며, 이를 더욱 발전시키기 위해서는 향후 GK-2A 위성자료의 활용과 함께, 산림청의 산불위험예보시스템과의 연계 방안에 대한 모색이 반드시 필요할 것이다.

• 대기
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.17-33
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• 2011

A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 hPa temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 hPa geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 hPa temperature and precipitation, respectively.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
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• pp.26.2-26.2
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• 2009

The Solar and Space Weather Research Group (SOS) in Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) is constructing the Space Weather Prediction Center since 2007. As a part of the project, we are developing automatic real-time system of the global 3-D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation. The MHD simulation model of earth's magnetosphere is designed as modified leap-frog scheme by T. Ogino, and it was parallelized by using message passing interface (MPI). Our work focuses on the automatic processing about simulation of 3-D MHD model and visualization of the simulation results. We used PC cluster to compute, and virtual reality modeling language (VRML) file format to visualize the MHD simulation. The system can show the variation of earth's magnetosphere by the solar wind in quasi real time. For data assimilation we used four parameters from ACE data; density, pressure, velocity of solar wind, and z component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In this paper, we performed some initial tests and made a animation. The automatic real-time system will be valuable tool to understand the configuration of the solar-terrestrial environment for space weather research.

• 대기
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.209-220
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• 2020

Seasonal predictability and variability of tropical storms (TCs) simulated in the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is assessed in Northern Hemisphere in 1996~2009. In the KMA, the GloSea5-Global Atmosphere version 3.0 (GloSea5-GA3) that was previously operated was switched to the GloSea5-Global Coupled version 2.0 (GloSea5-GC2) with data assimilation system since May 2016. In this study, frequency, track, duration, and strength of the TCs in the North Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic regions derived from the GloSea5-GC2 and GloSea5-GA3 are examined against the best track data during the research period. In general, the GloSea5 shows a good skill for the prediction of seasonally averaged number of the TCs in the Eastern and Western Pacific regions, but underestimation of those in the North Atlantic region. Both the GloSea5-GA3 and GC2 are not able to predict the recurvature of the TCs in the North Western Pacific Ocean (NWPO), which implies that there is no skill for the prediction of landfalls in the Korean peninsula. The GloSea5-GC2 has higher skills for predictability and variability of the TCs than the GloSea5-GA3, although continuous improvements in the operational system for seasonal forecast are still necessary to simulate TCs more realistically in the future.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume I
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• pp.142-145
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• 2006

The synergism of active and passive microwave techniques for hurricane ocean wind remote sensing is explored. We performed the analysis of Windsat data for Atlantic hurricanes in 2003-2005. The polarimetric third Stokes parameter observations from the Windsat 10, 18 and 37 GHz channels were collocated with the ocean surface winds from the Holland wind model, the NOAA HWind wind vectors and the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) operated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The collocated data were binned as a function of wind speed and wind direction, and were expanded by sinusoidal series of the relative azimuth angles between wind and observation directions. The coefficients of the sinusoidal series, corrected for atmospheric attenuation, have been used to develop an empirical geophysical model function (GMF). The Windsat GMF for extreme high wind compares very well with the aircraft radiometer and radar measurements.

• 대기
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.21-39
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• 2019

The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.

• 대기
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.35-46
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• 2005

Today, the outreach of National Meteorological Service such as PC cluster based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) technique is vigorous in the world wide. In this regard, WMO (World Meteorological Organization) asked KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) to formulate a regional project, which cover most of RA II members, using similar technical system with KMA's. In that sense, Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) in KMA developed Mongolian NWP System (MNWPS) based on PC cluster and transferred the technology to Weather Service Center in Mongolia. The hybrid parallel algorithm and channel bonding technique were adopted to cut cost and showed 41% faster performance than single MPI (Message Passing Interface) approach. The cluster technique of Beowulf type was also adopted for convenient management and saving resources. The Linux based free operating system provide very cost effective solution for operating multi-nodes. Additionally, the GNU software provide many tools, utilities and applications for construction and management of a cluster. A flash flood event happened in Mongolia (2 September 2003) was selected for test run, and MNWPS successfully simulated the event with initial and boundary condition from Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of KMA. Now, the cluster based NWP System in Mongolia has been operated for local prediction around the region and provided various auxiliary charts.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.119-130
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• 2015

동해 해양자료동화시스템(DA-ESROM; Kim et al., 2009)을 이용하여 Argo 관측망이 해양 분석장에 미치는 영향에 대해 살펴보았다. 본 연구에서는 2009년을 연구기간으로 하여 수온 프로파일, 해수면 온도, 그리고 해수면 고도 자료를 동화하여 분석장을 생산하고(Exp. AllDa), 이를 Argo 수온 자료를 제외한 실험(Exp. NoArgo) 결과와 비교하였다. 동해 수온 프로파일 관측자료와 두 실험결과와의 평균 제곱근 오차(Root Mean Square Error; RMSE)를 살펴본 결과, Exp. AllDa의 결과에서 Exp. NoArgo에 비해 표층 이하부터 전반적으로 낮은 RMSE가 나타났고, 특히 수심 약 100 m 부근에서 약 $0.5^{\circ}C$의 RMSE 차이(Exp. AllDa - Exp. NoArgo)를 보이는 등 아표층 부근에서 Argo 수온 자료동화의 영향이 큰 결과를 보였다. 자료동화 과정에 독립적인 표류부이 관측자료와의 비교를 통해, Argo 수온 자료의 동화로 표층해류 정확도가 전반적으로 개선되는 것을 확인하였고, 특히 동해 중남부에서 상대적으로 장기 표류한 부이의 궤적을 따라 RMSE가 약 2.0~6.0 cm/s 정도 낮아졌다. 반면, 표층수온에 대해서는 Argo 수온자료의 동화효과는 약한 것으로 나타났고, 매일 동화되는 해수면 온도 자료의 영향이 지배적인 것으로 판단된다. 또한, 동해 해양자료동화시스템(DA-ESROM)은 일주일 간격으로 해수면 고도자료를 동화하지만, Argo 수온자료가 동화되지 않으면서 나타나는 해수면 고도 변화를 완전히 보정하지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 실험결과, Argo 수온자료의 동화는 특히 야마토 분지 남서쪽의 시계방향 순환 등 동해 중남부 해역에서의 해수면 고도 재현성을 향상시키는데 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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• pp.20-27
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• 2011

A system for fine-resolution long-range weather forecast is introduced in this study. The system is basically consisted of a global-scale coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional model. The system makes use of a data assimilation method in order to reduce the initial shock or drift that occurs at the beginning of coupling due to imbalance between model dynamics and observed initial condition. The long-range predictions are produced in the system based on a non-linear ensemble method. At the same time, the model bias are eliminated by estimating the difference between hindcast model climate and observation. In this research, the predictability of the forecast system is studied, and it is illustrated that the system can be effectively used for the high resolution long-term weather prediction. Also, using the system, fine-resolution climatological data has been produced with high degree of accuracy. It is proved that the production of agrometeorological variables that are not intensively observed are also possible.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제36권6_1호
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• pp.1407-1419
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• 2020

지구환경 변화를 파악하는 데 있어서는 장기 시계열의 격자자료가 필수적이며, 기후 재분석장과 위성자료는 대기 및 지표면 변수에 대하여 전 지구 규모에서 주기적이고 정량적인 정보로 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 위성자료의 결측 문제를 해결하기 위한 방안으로 DCT-PLS (penalized least square regression based on discrete cosine transform) 기반의 결측복원 기법을 서로 다른 특성을 가진 복수의 격자자료에 적용하고, 정량적인 검증을 통하여 그 활용성을 평가하였다. 원본 자료와의 객관적인 비교를 위하여 결측이 없는 LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) 모델로부터 상대습도, 풍속 일자료를 추출하고, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)의 월간 합성 LST (land surface temperature), NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) 영상을 사용하여, 임의로 생성된 결측 블록이 원본에 매우 가깝게 복원됨을 확인하였고, 4가지 변수 모두에서 상관계수 0.95 이상의 일치도를 나타내었다. DCT-PLS 기반 결측복원 기법은 별도의 보조자료를 필요로 하지 않고, 필요시 시간 및 공간 정보를 모두 활용할 수 있으며, 처리속도가 비교적 빠르기 때문에 현업시스템에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.