• 무역학회지
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• 제47권5호
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• pp.147-160
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• 2022

This study aim to use the GTAP model to analyze the impact of RCEP Fermentation in the Korean manufacturing industry by quantifying the RCEP tariff commitment table. The research results show RCEP has boosted output in all sub-manufactures except wood and printed matter due to increased export volumes. Wood products, on the other hand, are more reliant on imports due to lower production due to lower domestic sales or overall exports. After RCEP came into effect, the import and export scale of Korea's manufacturing industry expanded effectively. Among them, the positive impact on the intensive low-tech manufacturing industries such as clothing and leather products, wood products and printing products, and food, beverage and tobacco products is greater than the positive impact on the technology-intensive medium and high-tech and high-tech manufacturing industries. And found that the growth rate of Korea's manufacturing trade is basically proportional to the tax reduction rate of RCEP. Finally, in order to promote the development of the manufacturing industry, some suggestions are put forward that need the government's policy support and strengthen the regional cooperation with RCEP member countries.

• 웰빙융합연구
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.1-4
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• 2020

Purpose: This research, based on the tariff reduction table negotiated by South Korea and China free trade area, the specific tariffs of the two countries in the implementation of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement are calculated, and the global equilibrium model, the global trade analysis project (GTAP) model, is used to simulate and analyze the impact of the Korea-China free trade area on the output and trade of the two countries. Research design, data and methodology: The study conducted a survey on 2018 year GTAP 9.0data. After empirically analyzing the data, we believe that the Major industry in Korea and China will maintain its growth momentum. Results: This study shows that under the assumption that the average tariff of China and South Korea at the beginning of FTA was reduced to 20%, two scenarios were simulated. Two scenarios are simulated under the assumption that the average tariff of China and South Korea FTA will be reduced to 10%. Conclusions: This paper assumes that the average tariff of China-Korea FTA is set at 20%, 10% and zero tariff respectively in the early, middle and long term of the FTA construction. It considers the impact of China-Japan-Korea FTA on China- Korea FTA.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.85-92
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• 2022

최근 몇 년간 미국의 일련의 보호무역주의 조치와 브렉시트(Brexit) 등 반세계화 행태로 세계의 자유무역체제가 큰 타격을 받았다. 이러한 배경에서 세계 최대 무역 협정인 RCEP가 2021년 11월 15일에 공식 서명되었다. RCEP는 한중일 자유무역지대 구축을 위한 좋은 작업 기반을 제공했다. 첫째, 본고는 한중일 무역협력 현황과 3국 통신 산업의 현황을 기술한다. 둘째, 본 논문은 제8판 GTAP 데이터베이스를 이용하여 자유무역지역 설정 이후 관세가 각각 0%, 5%, 10%로 인하될 때 중국, 일본, 한국의 경제 전반의 변화를 시뮬레이션하였다. 그런 다음 시뮬레이션된 데이터 변경 사항을 사용하고 2019년 데이터를 벤치마크로 사용하여 3개 세율에 따른 3개국 통신 산업의 RCA 지수의 변경 사항을 계산했다. 결국 한중일 자유무역지대가 수립되면 3국의 경제는 다방면에서 서로 다른 수준으로 성장할 것이라는 결론이 나온다. 일본의 통신 산업은 큰 영향을 받지 않을 것이며 한국은 높은 세율로 크게 성장할 것이고 중국은 낮은 세율로 크게 성장할 것이다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.313-331
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• 2007

In a rapidly changing environment of international trade, the purpose of this study is to examine economic benefits and losses of each country involved in the negotiation on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in Northeast Asia and to prepare strategies for the negotiation in the FTA between Korea and China. Previous researches on FTA have been made mainly from the macroeconomic perspective. The approach in this study is a combination of regulatory, reviewing regulations, and economic making quantitative analysis of the economic effects of FTA, which are the basic background of FTA. In economic analysis, I estimated the macroscopic economic effects of FTA by examining the effects of FTA on the trade balance, GDP and production of focal countries through the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model using GTAP data set.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.305-336
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• 2022

This study applied the macro-micro simulation model (i.e., what-if analysis) to investigate the impact of transport related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on poverty and income inequality in Laos. We selected Laos as a case study of a developing country. We used the standard GTAP model with the GTAP database (version 10) for the macrosimulation, whereas we used the household model with the latest Lao household data from 2019 for the microsimulation. Our findings revealed that the output of the Lao economy was anticipated to increase by up to 0.3%, while the poverty rate was anticipated to decline from 17.0% to 15.7%. However, there would be winners and losers in industries and groups of households in different areas. In particular, rich households with a comparative socioeconomic advantage, such as in education, engagement in nonfarm business, and infrastructure access, would mostly gain benefits; consequently, this would lead to higher inequality in Laos. Therefore, the inequality index (i.e., the Gini coefficient) would increase from 41.2 to 60.1. After a simulation of BRI transport, we also found that some nonpoor households, which are mainly associated with farm activities and lower educational levels, would fall into poverty.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.137-153
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• 2020

On February 14, 2019, the government of Korea formally decided to consider the feasibility of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and has since been conducting bilateral consultations with individual member countries. In terms of the impact estimation, the CPTPP is actually a Korea-Japan FTA, and the most sensitive issue in the FTA is the opening of the auto industry market to Japan. Despite these circumstances, previous studies have predicted that the auto industry will be a beneficiary industry when joining the CPTPP. However, the Korean auto industry is opposed to joining the CPTPP. In order to investigate the cause of this discrepancy, this paper examines the problems of previous studies in estimating the impact of joining the CPTPP and found that the preceding study did not consider the industrial characteristics of the auto sector, especially in the context of Japan-Korea trade, and was heavily dependent on the Armington elasticity (structure) in the demand function of the GTAP CGE model. As a result, the domestic auto sector could lower prices and increase exports when joining the CPTPP. This paper attempts to precisely re-estimate the impact of joining the CPTPP on the auto sector in a way that corrects these problems by changing the CGE model and reflecting the major characteristics of the industry, with policy implications for the negotiation of CPTPP accession.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.31-52
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• 2013

국제무역에 함유된 탄소이력에 대한 연구는 탄소배출의 궁극적인 책임소재에 관한 논란과 연관되어 있다. 지구온난화를 늦추기 위한 범세계적인 노력의 일환으로 수행되는 국가온실가스배출량 집계에 소비에 함유된 탄소배출을 어떤 방식으로든 일부나마 반영하여야 한다는 주장이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최근에 발표된 GTAP의 자료기반으로부터 다지역 투입-산출 분석을 위한 각 지역의 투입-산출표를 구성해서 각 지역의 생산과 소비에 함유된 탄소배출량, 따라서 국제무역에 함유된 탄소이력을 측정하였다. 또한 이와 관련된 각 지역의 수출과 수입의 탄소집약도를 분석하고 각 지역의 국민소득이 증가할 때 한국과 세계 전체의 탄소배출량 및 한국의 탄소무역수지에 미치는 효과를 계산하였다. 한국은 에너지 연소로 인한 탄소배출에 관한 한 이산화탄소의 순수입국이나 소비기반 배출량과 생산기반 배출량의 차이가 크지 않은 탄소무역수지 균형에 가까운 것으로 평가되었고 한국의 주요 교역대상국인 선진국들은 탄소무역수지 적자국이며 개발도상국들은 탄소무역수지 흑자국으로 평가되었다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.177-215
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• 2018

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.

• 동남아시아연구
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.1-33
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• 2014

아세안은 한중일과의 무역을 통한 경제적 연계의 심화현상과 최근 글로벌 위기로 인한 경기침체를 고려하여 새로운 경제성장추진을 위해 동북아의 한중일 삼국과의 무역자유화를 적극 추진하고 있다. 이미 ASEAN-중국, ASEAN-일본, ASEAN-한국 양자간 자유무역협정(FTA)이 발효되어 실행되고 있으며, 이들 3개 양자협정을 아우르는 A+3FTA(ASEAN+중국+일본+한국) 논의도 진행중이다. 이에 본 연구는 이들 4개 자유무역협정의 경제적 효과를 분석하여 과연 A+3FTA가 아세안은 물론 동아시아 역내에서 보다 바람직한 통상정책인지를 평가한다. 본 논문의 정성적 평가는 기존의 경제통합의 경제적 효과를 결정하는 이론에 근거하여 참여국의 제반 경제적 현황(경제규모, 소득수준, 경제개발수준, 거래비용, 무역 및 산업구조, 관세율 등)을 통계적으로 비교 분석한다. 한편 정량적 평가는 무역의 경제적 파급효과 분석에 널리 이용되고 있는 연산가능한 일반균형모형(CGE)분석방법을 적용한다. 정태적 효과의 분석을 위해서 GTAP 모형을 이용하며, 이와 더불어 동태적으로 투자를 통한 자본축적을 반영하는 자본축적 CGE 모형분석을 병행한다. 분석결과 후생 및 생산확대 측면에서 아세안의 경우 일본과의 양자간 FTA가 한국이나 중국과의 FTA에 비해 보다 긍정적인 후생증진을 가져올 것으로 기대되며, 아세안과 한중일 모두에게 A+3FTA가 동아시아 역내에서 보다 바람직한 자유무역협정이 될 것으로 평가된다.