• Title/Summary/Keyword: GDP gap

Search Result 43, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Variation of GDP Gap by a Decomposition Method (GDP갭 분해기법을 이용한 변동요인 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.387-396
    • /
    • 2014
  • The GDP gap (also called the output gap) is the difference between potential GDP and actual GDP. Potential GDP is the maximum sustainable output that is achieved when the resources (labor and capital) are used to capacity. Central banks pursuing price and employment stability consider the output gap as an informative variable for monetary policy since the output gap could be regarded as a proxy of demand-supply imbalances. In this paper, the GDP gap of Korea is decomposed following the filtering method in the previous research, and major factors that affect the variation of GDP gap are investigated based on the decomposed series. The analysis results by the Super Smoother algorithm used in Fox et al. (2003)and Fox and Zurlinden (2006) are found consistent with theory. Much of the variation of nominal GDP gap is explained by Total Factor Productivity(TFP) gap, which is the change of productivity due to recent technological innovation and environmental change. It is also found that variation of terms of trade significantly affects the GDP gap of Korea due to its high dependency on international trade; however, the effect of the domestic price is not negligible like other countries.

An analysis of changes in the influence of GDP gap on inflation (GDP갭의 물가영향력 변화 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1377-1386
    • /
    • 2015
  • GDP gap is closely related with economic activity of a country as a whole, especially with the economic fluctuations which is called business cycle. GDP gap is regarded as an important variable for the monetary policy of the central bank because it provides information on the excess demand pressures and employment matters. However, GDP gap may not provide enough information of the effect of recent economic structural change or the environmental change of domestic and external economic condition. In this paper, the GDP is decomposed by statistical filtering techniques and various models are fitted to estimate the influence of GDP gap on Inflation and see if it has been changed. Analysis results show that the influence of GDP gap on inflation decreased in the 2000s while that of global GDP gap increased. These results also support that recent low inflation rate is due to the change of overseas economic condition, such as a slowdown in exports resulting from the global recession, as well as domestic factors.

RAS inhibitor를 이용한 항암제의 개발에 관하여

  • 어미숙
    • The Microorganisms and Industry
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.32-35
    • /
    • 1993
  • ras는 활성화 형태인 GTP bound form과 비활성화 형태인 GDP bound form의 두 형태로 존재하며 두 형태를 매개하는 regulatory protein들에 의해 그 activity가 조절된다. 또한 ras는 GTP와 GDP에 강한 친화성이 있으며 세포내에는 GTP보다 GDP가 더 많이 있어서 평소에는 ras가 GDP와 결합하고 있다가 활성화될때만 GTP와 결합하는 것으로 추정된다. GDP bound ras는 guanine nucloetide exchange protein(GEP)에 의해 활성화된 GTP bound form으로 전환되며 ras의 기능이 발휘된 후에는 GTPase activating protein(GAP)에 의해 비활성화된다. Yeast의 경우 IRA1과 2의 product가 GAP의 역할을 하는 것으로 알려져 있고 CDC25 gene의 product가 GEP의 기능을 담당하는 것으로 알려져 있다. NF1 gene은 Von Recklinghausen Neurofibromatosis Type I 질병을 가진 환자에게서 발견되었는데 부분적으로 sequencing한 결과에 따르면 yeast의 IRA1/2, mammalian GAP gene product와 protein homology가 높은 것으로 나타났다. Yeast의 경우 IRA1/2 gene의 손실이나 mammalian ras gene의 transformation으로 인한 heat shock sensitivity가 NF1 gene(2,3) 혹은 GAP(4)의 expression으로 suppression된 것으로 보아 NF1이 GAP protein으로서 ras를 불활성화 시킨다는 것이 판명되었다. 결론적으로 ras의 활성은 GTP bound 혹은 GDP bound의 양쪽형태를 이동하면서 조절되는데 이 기능은 GAP과 GEP 또는 그의 유사 protein들에 의해 수행되며 이러한 regulatory protein들은 growth factor, cytokine 그리고 protein kinase 같은 signal에 의해 활성화된다고 생각된다. 본 총설에서는 ras protein의 여러가지 성질보다는 ras의 modification과 관련하여 항암제로 사용할 수 있는 ras에 specific한 약품개발의 가능성과 현재 알려진 ras의 inhibitor를 중심으로 논하고자 한다.

  • PDF

Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Risk in China (资产价格波动对中国宏观经济风险的影响)

  • Jishi, Piao;Mengjiao, Liu
    • Analyses & Alternatives
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.135-157
    • /
    • 2019
  • The linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes are long-standing issue to both economists and monetary authorities. This paper explores the impact of asset prices on output and price in China. It focuses on the impacts of asset prices on the low quantiles of GDP gap and high quantiles of price gaprespectively. The main findings are the following: the influence of stock price gap, stock returns, and money growth on the different quantile of GDP gap and price gap are noticeable different, and there are significant impacts on the left tail of GDP gap distribution and on the right tail of price gap distribution. This implies that the results coming from simple regression will underestimate the economic risk imposed by asset price volatility. Moreover, these results also provide the caveat that one should cautiously distinguish the meaning of asset price gap and asset price growth rate and use them, through their contents are similar in some sense. One implication for monetarypolicy is that authority should interpret the relationship between asset prices and macro-economy in wider perspectives, and make the policy decision taking the impacts of asset prices on the tails of economy.

  • PDF

Ras GTPases and Ras GTPase Activating Proteins (RasGAPs) in Human Disease (Ras GTPase 및 Ras GTPase activating protein과 사람의 질병)

  • Chang, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.28 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1100-1117
    • /
    • 2018
  • The Ras superfamily of small G-proteins acts as a molecular switch on the intracellular signaling pathway. Upon ligand stimulation, inactive GTPases (Ras-GDP) are activated (Ras-GTP) using guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF) and transmit signals to their downstream effectors. Following signal transmission, active Ras-GTP become inactive Ras-GDP and cease signaling. However, the intrinsic GTPase activity of Ras proteins is weak, requiring Ras GTPase-activating protein (RasGAP) to efficiently convert RAS-GTP to Ras-GDP. Since deregulation of the Ras pathway is found in nearly 30% of all human cancers, it might be useful to clarify the structural and physiological roles of Ras GTPases. Recently, RasGAP has emerged as a new class of tumor-suppressor protein and a potential therapeutic target for cancer. Therefore, it is important to clarify the physiological roles of the individual GAPs in human diseases. The first RasGAP discovered was RASA1, also known as p120 RasGAP. RASA1 is widely expressed, independent of cell type and tissue distribution. Subsequently, neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) was discovered. The remaining GAPs are affiliated with the GAP1 and synaptic GAP (SynGAP) families. There are more than 170 Ras GTPases and 14 Ras GAP members in the human genome. This review focused on the current understanding of Ras GTPase and RasGAP in human diseases, including cancers.

Redefining Liquidity for Monetary Policy

  • Kim, Kyunghun;Lee, Il Houng;Shim, Won
    • East Asian Economic Review
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.307-336
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper proposes a monetary aggregate "Liquidity" that could serve as a useful indicator for gauging the appropriateness of monetary policy. If liquidity rises above a certain threshold, it is signaling that monetary policy is losing traction due to structural and other impediments even when the inflation gap remains open. This indicator supplements the financial cycle approach but adds value by providing a benchmark that is derived from the national account, and not based on its own trend. Over the last two decades, each time this measure rose above the threshold range, it was followed by a decline in GDP growth. The latter was greater when accompanied by a high physical asset value to GDP, e.g., an elevated property market.

Is Currency Appreciation or Depreciation Expansionary in Thailand?

  • Hsing, Yu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.5-9
    • /
    • 2018
  • Many developing countries have attempted to depreciate their currencies in order to make their products cheaper, stimulate exports, shift aggregate demand to the right, and increase aggregate output. However, currency depreciation tends to increase import prices, raise domestic inflation, reduce capital inflows, and shift aggregate supply to the left. The net impact is unclear. The paper incorporates the monetary policy function in the model, which is determined by the inflation gap, the output gap, the real effective exchange rate, and the world real interest rate. Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), the paper finds that real depreciation raised real GDP during 1997.Q1-2005.Q3 whereas real appreciation increased real GDP during 2005.Q4-2017.Q2. In addition, a higher government debt-to-GDP ratio, a lower U.S. real federal funds rate, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. Hence, real depreciation or real appreciation may increase or reduce aggregate output, depending upon the level of economic development. Although expansionary fiscal policy is effective in stimulating the economy, caution needs to be exercised as there may be a debt threshold beyond which a further increase in the debt-to-GDO ratio would hurt economic growth.

A Study on Tertiarization in Korea: Test of Baumol's Hypothesis (한국의 서비스화에 대한 연구: Baumol 가설을 중심으로)

  • Seo, Hwan-Joo;Lee, Young-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.143-150
    • /
    • 2007
  • Using a panel data of Korea for $1979{\sim}2002$, this study investigates the determinants of the service sector employment share in Korea. In order to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the service sector's employment share we estimate a simple panel model which is in line with Baumol's model. The panel GMM estimation results show that: 1) The increase in the share of service-related jobs in total employment tends to rise with GDP per capita, which confirms demand-bias hypothesis proposed by Clark. 2) We find that a crucial role in this process has been played by the productivity gap. As Baumol's hypothesis or Baumolis disease, the expansion of the employment share in services relative to industry is the direct consequence of services' lower productivity performances.

  • PDF

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Fundamentals in Korea

  • Keun Yeong Lee
    • East Asian Economic Review
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.277-314
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the response of economic fundamentals to a misalignment shock of the real effective exchange rate in Korea. The estimation results of the equilibrium exchange rate determination model and time series model show that there is no significant difference in the direction of the deviation from equilibrium and that the won is significantly undervalued during the period before 1988, or during the currency and global financial crises. The cumulative impulse response analysis of the VAR model over the full period shows that an upward shock to the deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate reduces the GDP gap and inflation rate, while the effect on the call rate is not statistically significant. Furthermore, an upward misalignment shock initially worsens the goods and services balance, but the deficit in the goods and services balance shrinks significantly over time. In rolling regressions analysis, the entire sample is divided into two periods to estimate the impulse response function from the first period, and then the same procedure is repeated by moving the sample forward one by one. The cumulative impulse response results show that, as is the case for the full period, a positive exchange rate misalignment shock initially reduces the GDP gap, inflation, and worsens the goods and services balance, but the impact of this upward shock on these variables becomes increasingly weaker in the more recent sample. It also shows that the negative impact of upward shocks on the current account is smoothed out more recently during periods of undervaluation than during periods of overvaluation.

The Influence of Human Capital on GDP Dynamics: Modeling in the COVID-19 Conditions

  • Derii, Zhanna;Zosymenko, Tetiana;Shaposhnykov, Kostiantyn;Tochylina, Yuliia;Krylov, Denys;Papaika, Oleksandr
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.67-76
    • /
    • 2022
  • COVID-19 struck labor markets around the world, exposing and exacerbating the gender inequalities within the human capital structure. The last, in its turn, jeopardizes the return of the national economies to the growth trajectory undermined by pandemic impact. The authors assume that COVID-19 disproportionately affected the employment rates of women and men, which led to increased gender inequality in the labor market, which, in turn, affected GDP growth rates in the EU. To prove this hypothesis two research questions are discovered: 1) whether there was a different correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases in the EU and indicators of the labor market for women and men; and 2) whether there was a link between the growth of gender inequality in the EU labor market and the GDP dynamics in these countries. The analysis of the correlation between the number of cases of COVID-19 and indicators of the labor market in the EU revealed faster growth of women's unemployment rates compared to men's ones as the COVID-19 incidence unfolded. Multiple linear regression and factor analysis have been used to investigate the influence of gender inequality in the labor market on GDP dynamics. Despite the methodological limitations, the proposed model is both a sound argument and an analytical basis in favor of gender-responsive economic recovery backed by the systematic and consistent gender equality policy of a government.