• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fuzzy Decision Making

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Utilization of Planned Routes and Dead Reckoning Positions to Improve Situation Awareness at Sea

  • Kim, Joo-Sung;Jeong, Jung Sik;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.288-294
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    • 2014
  • Understanding a ship's present position has been one of the most important tasks during a ship's voyage, in both ancient and modern times. Particularly, a ship's dead reckoning (DR) has been used for predicting traffic situations and collision avoidance actions. However, the current system that uses the traditional method of calculating DR employs the received position and speed data only. Therefore, it is not applicable for predicting navigation within the harbor limits, owing to the frequent changes in the ship's course and speed in this region. In this study, planned routes were applied for improving the reliability of the proposed system and predicting the traffic patterns in advance. The proposed method of determining the dead reckoning position (DRP) uses not only the ships' received data but also the navigational patterns and tracking data in harbor limits. The Mercator sailing formulas were used for calculating the ships' DRPs and planned routes. The data on the traffic patterns were collected from the automatic identification system and analyzed using MATLAB. Two randomly chosen ships were analyzed for simulating their tracks and comparing the DR method during the timeframes of the ships' movement. The proposed method of calculating DR, combined with the information on planned routes and DRPs, is expected to contribute towards improving the decision-making abilities of operators.

An Approach to Drought Vulnerability Assessment using Multi Criteria Decision Making Method (다기준 의사결정기법을 적용한 가뭄취약성 평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hyung Jin;Lee, Gyu Min;Lee, Jae Nam;Kwon, Min Sung;Kang, Mun Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.385-385
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구에서는 가뭄과 연관되는 다양한 관련 요인을 포함한 가뭄취약성 평가방안을 수립하고 이를 적용하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 평가기법은 평가인자와 가중치 선정, 평가자료 데이터베이스 구축, 평가자료와 가중치를 조합한 평가의 세 단계로 구성되었으며 평가인자 및 가중치 선정에는 Delphi 조사기법을 적용하고 평가기법으로는 최근 널리 적용되고 있는 MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) 방법인 TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) 기법을 활용하였다. 평가인자는 기상분야(Meteorological factors), 농업분야(Agricultural factors), 사회경제분야(Socioeconomic factors), 환경분야(Natural System)로 구성하였으며 선정된 인자에 대한 데이터베이스를 구성하기 위하여 기상청, 농어촌공사, 수자원공사 등의 관계기관이 관리하는 자료를 수집하였다. 수립한 가뭄취약성 평가방안을 2016년 3월부터 2019년 9월까지 우리나라 시군구 행정구역 단위, 총 167개 지역이며 순위법, 비율법, fuzzy 등 가중치 선정방법에 따라 결과에 약간의 차이가 나타난다. 가뭄예보결과와 취약성 평가결과를 비교해 보면 충청남도 홍성군이 동기간 동안 가뭄예경보 발령 횟수가 가장 많았으며, 충청남도 보령시와 서산시도 매우 높은 빈도로 확인되었다. 평가 결과, 충청북도, 경상남도, 전라남도에 가뭄 취약지역이 다수 도출 되어 이들 지역에 대한 가뭄 대응 방안 수립이 필요한 것으로 분석되었다.

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Data-Driven Approaches for Evaluating Countries in the International Construction Market

  • Lee, Kang-Wook;Han, Seung H.
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.496-500
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    • 2015
  • International construction projects are inherently more risky than domestic projects with multi-dimensional uncertainties that require complementary risk management at both the country and project levels. However, despite a growing need for systematic country evaluations, most studies have focused on project-level decisions and lack country-based approaches for firms in the construction industry. Accordingly, this study suggests data-driven approaches for evaluating countries using two quantitative models. The first is a two-stage country segmentation model that not only screens negative countries based on country attractiveness (macro-segmentation) but also identifies promising countries based on the level of past project performance in a given country (micro-segmentation). The second is a multi-criteria country segmentation model that combines a firm's business objective with the country evaluation process based on Kraljic's matrix and fuzzy preference relations (FPR). These models utilize not only secondary data from internationally reputable institutions but also performance data on Korean firms from 1990 to 2014 to evaluate 29 countries. The proposed approaches enable firms to enhance their decision-making capacity for evaluating and selecting countries at the early stage of corporate strategy development.

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Evaluation of Inland Inundation Risk in Urban Area using Fuzzy AHP (Fuzzy AHP 기법을 이용한 도시지역의 내수침수위험도 평가)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Park, Yei Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.9
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    • pp.789-799
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    • 2014
  • This study presented how to evaluate the inland inundation risk considering the characteristics of inland flood. Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), which can deal with the uncertainty or ambiguousness of the decision-making process, was used to estimate the inundation risk. The criteria used for inland inundation risk include the physical index, social index and inland flood. Each index contains three detailed indicators then total nine indicators were employed in this study. The inundation risk evaluation was carried out for each node (manhole) within the drainage system, not to the administrative extent, which enabled us to point out nodes with high risk. The proposed Fuzzy AHP was applied to Geoje district in Busan. The results indicated that the junction of Oncheoncheon and Geojecheon has high risk which is consistent with the fact that this junction has already experienced floods in the past. The proposed method can be used for evaluating inland inundation risk and preparing flood prevention plans in inland flood-prone urban areas.

Using the MCDM of the Innovative Product Value Chain to Promote New Product Design

  • Liao, Shih-Chung
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - In the past, designs for traditional products have usually focused on historic techniques. However, this tradition of using historic techniques has now been replaced by the trend of using the innovative design concept. Research design, data, and methodology - To measure future market trends and quality requirements, we apply the results of the questionnaires and analyze them with various experimental processes and a design methodology. In this way, we gauge the impact of the innovative product value chain on the promotion of new products. Results - Accompanied with an innovative product value chain, the product can stimulate the development of enterprise management, which has become the main issue in social and economic development in every developed country, and can facilitate the progress of enterprise management throughout the enterprise. Conclusions - Customer demand should be emphasized as the primary means to solve design problems, to design optimal solutions, to create differentiation with competitors, and to pursue optimal marketing strategies.

A Learning AI Algorithm for Poker with Embedded Opponent Modeling

  • Kim, Seong-Gon;Kim, Yong-Gi
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2010
  • Poker is a game of imperfect information where competing players must deal with multiple risk factors stemming from unknown information while making the best decision to win, and this makes it an interesting test-bed for artificial intelligence research. This paper introduces a new learning AI algorithm with embedded opponent modeling that can be used for these types of situations and we use this AI and apply it to a poker program. The new AI will be based on several graphs with each of its nodes representing inputs, and the algorithm will learn the optimal decision to make by updating the weight of the edges connecting these nodes and returning a probability for each action the graphs represent.

Application of AHP in GIS-based Decision Analysis - with emphasis in Flood Hazard management (GIS 기반 의사결정 분석에 AHP의 적용 - 홍수재해관리 중심으로)

  • 김수정;염재홍;이동천
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.423-428
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    • 2004
  • Flooding is one of the main causes of loss of lives and properties among various natural disasters in Korea. Flood risk maps are currently being produced in Korea but the progress is slow considering the necessity to map at nationwide scale. In this study, GIS-based multi-criteria decision making process which is normally used for resource management and site analysis was applied to locate flood vulnerable areas. Past records of flooding maps were analysed to extract topographic characteristics of flooded areas. The extracted characteristics were then set as criteria for flooding analysis using the Fuzzy and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) methodology. Results from this study showed that an improved phased action plan was possible, because the flood vulnerable areas are shown in varying degrees of uncertainty unlike the conventional Boolean type GIS layer superimposition analysis.

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A Study on the Performance Index of System Evaluation for Safety Monitoring Configuration based on Human- Computer Interaction (인간-컴퓨터작업에서 안전감시체계의 시스템평가 수행도지수에 관한 연구)

  • 오영진;이근희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.14 no.24
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 1991
  • As the development of modern technology, human works shift whose roll from physical conditions to the system monitoring tasks. In this paper, safety-presentation configuration is discussed instead of well-known fault-warning configuration. Safety-presentation configuration is verified as superior to the fault-warning configuration in hazard prevention. The estimation of system states involves the decision making environments which lack of required in formations and most of all the informations are not precise too. And the limitation of human information processing show doubtful results. So the estimation of system states is regardes as fuzzy number, and its operation produces the parameter that explain the discriminability(d), decision criterion ($\beta$) of system operator's behaviors. These two values served as performance indices. Especially the $\beta$ is a good milestone of the operator's altitude degree of caution.

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Analysis of Leasing Decision Determinants by the Store Size and Lend-Lease Perspectives for Mix-Used Shopping Mall Development (복합쇼핑몰 개발을 위한 매장규모 및 임대차 관점에 따른 임차인 입점결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyeyoon;Lee, Sangyoub
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2017
  • This study intends to determine the decision making criteria of leasing in mix-used shopping mall, analyze the variation of their weight by store size inside mall and lend-lease perspective for lessor and lessee towards the identification of optimal leasing environment in mix-used shopping mall development. The decision making have been identified based on the number of prior literature review and expert consultation. And the AHP methodology and Fuzzy theory have been implemented to develop the weight for criteria based on experts survey. Research finding indicates that the 2 categories with 6 criteria and 24 sub-criteria have been determined. It is noteworthy that the large sized group would be located in both ends on main floor with their requested store size; middle sized group done over second floor with low rent by attracting with both competitive brands and key-tenants; small sized group done in both ends on main floor or on 2 to 3 floor connecting to main circulation. This should be examined in the planning stage of SPA lessee solicitation by the lessor in mix-used shopping mall development project.

Fuzzy Membership Functions and AHP-Based Negotiation Support in Electronic Commerce (퍼지 멤버십 함수와 AHP 추론기법을 이용한 전자상거래 협상지원)

  • Kim, Jin-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.347-352
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    • 2002
  • This paper propose the Fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchical Process)-based negotiation support (FAHP-NEGO) mechanism to support the dynamic negotiation process in Electronic Commerce(EC). Negotiation is a form of decision-making with two or more actively involved agents who can not make decisions independently, and therefore must make concessions to achieve a compromise. Having concerned that point, the theoretical framework of FAHP-NEGO mechanism is presented by means of fuzzy membership functions and AHP. This mechanism encompasses both qualitative and quantitative conditions, and the use of multiple negotiation procedures for solving the electronic negotiation problem, adjusting the fuzzy membership function, and restructuring the problem representation. A hypothetical example of a healthcare products purchase is given to illustrate the quality of the proposed mechanism. The results showed that the Fuzzy AHP-based negotiation support mechanism could reflect both qualitative and quantitative conditions in EC. The implications of the study for future directions of research on electronic negotiation support modeling and systems are presented.