• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.83-89
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ² analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

• 정보과학회 컴퓨팅의 실제 논문지
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.768-773
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• 2015

사회적 혼란을 야기하는 이벤트는 발생 직후 어떻게 대응하느냐에 따라 소요되는 비용의 편차가 크다. 이에 따라 비정상적인 이벤트를 탐지하고 의미를 파악하는 연구가 많이 진행되고 있다. 또한 예측 분석에 관한 연구도 많이 수행되고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 연구는 이벤트의 전체적인 미래 경향에 대한 수치 결과를 예측할 뿐, 이벤트가 내포하는 의미에 대한 예측 연구는 미비하다. 이에 따라 본 논문에서는 비정상적인 이벤트가 내포하는 토픽의 조합을 통해 미래에 어떠한 일이 발생할 수 있는지에 대한 시각적 예측 분석 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 방법은 먼저 트윗에서 실시간으로 비정상 이벤트를 탐지한다. 그 다음 과거 유사한 사례를 탐색한 다음 이벤트와 관련된 토픽들을 추출한다. 마지막으로 사용자는 의미 있는 토픽의 조합을 통해 미래에 어떠한 일이 발생할 수 있을지 분석할 수 있다. 실험은 두 가지 상황에 대한 예측 분석을 수행하였으며, 실험 결과 본 논문에서 제안한 방법의 타당성을 입증하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• 융합정보논문지
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• 제11권11호
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• pp.151-158
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• 2021

본 논문에서는 차세대 태양전지로 대표되는 유기, 염료 감응형, 페로브스카이트 태양전지의 최신 연구 동향과 건축, 조형예술, 의류패션 등 분야를 막론한 다양한 산업의 소재로의 과제와 활용 가능성을 분석하였다. 더불어, 웨어러블 IoT 장치와 결합하여 자연 및 인공광과 우리 몸의 움직임에 따라 생성되는 크고 작은 진동 에너지를 전기에너지로 공급하는 역할을 하게 될 '스마트 텍스타일 하이브리드 에너지 하베스팅 소자'의 새로운 미래전망과 그 가능성을 제시하였다. 차세대 태양전지와 마찰·압전소자를 융합한 '하이브리드 텍스타일 에너지 하베스팅 디바이스'는 4차 산업혁명 시대의 웨어러블 IoT 기기에 소재 자체로 결합하여 새로운 '융합 일체형 스마트 의류'로 발전할 것이다. 이 연구가 제안한 차세대 나노기술과 소자가 에너지 하베스팅 기능을 갖는 스마트 섬유 소재 분야에 적용되고, 미래 의류 산업에 융합되어 의료, 헬스케어 등 다양한 분야에 AI 서비스 제공하는 창의적인 제품으로 진화하는 패러다임의 전환점이 되길 바란다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.143-143
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• 2021

Climate change indicators, mainly frequent drought which has happened since the drought of 1994, 1995, and 2012 causing the devastating effect to the agricultural sector, and could be more disruptive given the context of climate change indicators by increasing the temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on agriculture production and water management. Since both the possibility of drought manifestation and substantial yield losses, we are propositioning an integrated method for evaluating past and future agriculture drought hazards that depend on models' simulations in the Hung-up watershed. to discuss the question of how climate change might influence the impact of extreme agriculture drought by assessing the potential changes in temporal trends of agriculture drought. we will calculate the temporal trends of future drought through drought indices Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Palmer drought severity index by using observed data of (1991-2020) from Wonju meteorological station and projected climate change scenarios (2021-2100) of the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). expected results confirmed the frequency of extreme agricultural drought in the future projected to increase under all studied RCPs. at present 100 years drought is anticipated to happen since the result showing under RCP2.6 will occur every 24 years, RCP4.5 every 17 years, and RCPs8.5 every 7 years, and it would be double in the largest warming scenarios. On another side, the result shows unsupportable water management, could cause devastating consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Because significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity like to be initiate at different time scales for each drought indicator. Based on the expected result that the evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts and recession could be used for the development of proactive drought risk management, policies for future water balance, prioritize sustainable strengthening and mitigation strategies.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.31-48
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• 2024

글로벌 자동차 산업은 연결, 자율주행, 공유, 전동화 등의 주요 방향 아래 지속적으로 발전하고 있으며, 국내 자동차 산업 또한 기존의 전통적인 자동차 부품 제조로부터 미래 트렌드에 부합하는 전략적인 업의 전환을 꾀하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 2013년부터 2021년까지 산업통상자원부에서 지원한 미래 자동차 분야 연구개발 과제를 대상으로 토픽 모델링을 수행하였다. 해당 기간을 3개 기간으로 구분하여 주요 토픽의 변화를 분석하였다. 센서와 통신, 운전자 보조 기술, 배터리 및 전력 기술은 전 기간 동안 지속적인 주요 토픽으로 나타났으며, 고강도 경량 차체와 같은 주제는 1기에서만 관찰되었다. 한편, AI, 빅데이터, 수소 연료전지와 같은 주제는 2기와 3기에 점점 더 중요한 토픽으로 부상하였다. 또한, 토픽별 정부 투자액과 투자 증가율을 기준으로 각 기수별 집중 투자 분야를 분석하였다. 이러한 연구 결과는 향후 자동차 분야의 정책 수립 및 연구개발 전략 마련 시 기초 자료로 활용될 것으로 예상되며, 증거 기반의 정책 수립과 결정에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제37권4_spc호
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• pp.755-774
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• 2024

The main objective of this study was to present data on the current situation and future trends of pig meat production in the European Union-27 (EU). Pig production has played an important social and economic role for centuries in many states of the EU. In 2022, pig meat production in the EU reached 23 M tons, which represented 21% of total production worldwide. The two key reasons that justify such amount of pork produced, are the acceptance and high consumption of the meat by the local population and the high quality of the meat produced which facilitated pork export. However, current data show a reduction in pork production for the last three years, as a consequence of a series of events that include i) problems with the chain of ingredients supply, ii) uncontrolled increase in African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks, iii) fast recovery of pig production in China, iv) increasing concerns by the rural population on the high cost to meet future requirements of the EU legislation on farm management, environmental sustainability and animal welfare, v) increased cost of all inputs involved in pig production and vi) limited interest of the new farmer generation to work on the pig sector. Consequently, pork production is expected to decrease in the EU for the next years, although sales will be maintained at a relative high level because pork is the meat preferred by local consumers in most EU countries. In order to maintain the favourable position of the pork industry in the near future, strategies to implement include: i) maintain the quality of the meat destinated to export markets, ii) improve the control of outbreaks of ASF and other swine diseases, iii) implementation of technological innovations to improve working conditions making more attractive to work in the pork sector of the food chain to the new generation of farmers and workers.

• Safe Food
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.29-37
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• 2006

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.65-72
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• 1990

The historical development process and the current research trends of ergonmics in Korea are reviewed and organized in this paper. The recommended research directions in the near future are also discussed based upon the analyses of the potential major key industries of Korea in 1990's. Keynords: Human Engineering Society of Korea; Research activities in Ergonomics; Ergonomics educations

• 한국응용과학기술학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.1-11
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• 1997