• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future scenario

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Study on water quality management of lake Pyeungtaek for the reduction of pollutant loadings in upstream watersheds (상류 유역의 오염부하량 삭감에 따른 평택호 수질관리 보존 대책 연구)

  • Hwang, Byung-Gi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1465-1472
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    • 2011
  • Water quality surveys has been performed to establish water quality improvement strategy for the lake Pyeungtaek, and WASP model was used to simulate to identify the effect of water quality improvement according to the reduction of pollutant loadings for the upstream watersheds. Assuming that present loadings was continued up to the future, the water quality of the lake was found to be getting worse resulting from the increase of pollutants due to the planned future development. In this study, we made various scenarios to predict the future water quality, scenario 6 made a large contribution to improve the lake water quality compared to others. Even the scenario 6, COD concentration of year 2016 in the lake was examined to be under the 4th rate of water quality level for the lake (COD less than 8 mg/L), similar to year 2021. Even though additional reduction of loadings for the scenario 6 was made, the water quality in lake was a little improvement, and was though to be inappropriate action in the economic point of view.

Developing the On-line Game Industry's Changing Scenario and Establishing Business Strategy According to the Introduction of IPTV (IPTV 도입에 따른 온라인 게임 산업의 변와 시나리오 개발 및 경영 전략 수립)

  • Kim, Min-Kwan;Han, Chang-Hee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.21-48
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    • 2008
  • The Korean on-line game industry is going through a rapid change. The future business environments for potential on-line game companies are very uncertain due to the new service and the different market trends. In this paper, I propose the use of morphological analysis approach for scenario generation about the future of the On-line game industry. The stages of research process were as follows; Firstly, digital contents analysis and key issues were drawn on IPTV in the on-line game industry. Secondly, each key issue was analyzed and the influence factors and directivity flow were found. Thirdly, highly probable future on-line game industry scenarios were derived. In this case, morphological analysis. On the basis of the developed scenarios, I formulated some implications for business strategy of a potential on-line game companies.

Uncertainty Analysis of Future Design Floods for the Yongdang Reservoir Watershed using Bootstrap Technique (Bootstrap 기법을 이용한 용당 저수지 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Do Gil;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Jihoon;Ryu, Jeong Hoon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2016
  • To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.

Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario (SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석)

  • Kim, Jihye;Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Lee, Sunghack;Lee, Jae Nam;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

An analysis of in-service teachers' perceived interactivity with AI teachers through RPP(Role-Play Presentation) (RPP(Role-Play Presentation)를 통한 교사의 AI 교사와의 지각된 상호작용성 분석)

  • Ko, Ho Kyoung;Huh, Nan;Noh, Jihwa
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.321-340
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    • 2021
  • As many changes in the future society represented by the age of artificial intelligence(AI) are expected to come, efforts are being made to draw the shape of the future education and various research methods are being employed to support the attempts. While many research studies use methods for deriving generalized results such as expert survey and trend analysis in along with a review of literature, there are attempts to apply the scenario methodology to explore ideas and information needed within a changing context. A scenario method, one of the experiential learning strategies, aims to seek various and alternative approaches by establishing a plan from the present conditions considering future changes. In this study, in-service teachers' perceptions and expectations of the interactivity between human and AI teachers were visualized by applying the role-play presentation technique that grafted the concept of role-play game to the scenario method. In addition, the mandal-art method was introduced to support in conducting productive discussion during the teachers' collaboration. This method appeared to help to depict teachers' perceptions of AI teachers in the detailed and concrete form, which may flow in the abstract otherwise. Through analyses of the teachers' role-play presentations with the implementation of the madal-art method it was suggested that most teachers would want to collaborate with an AI teacher for improved instruction and individualized student learning while they would take the instructional authority over the AI teacher in the classroom.

Analysis of Groundwater Recharge in Anseong River Basin under Urbanization and Future Climate Change (도시화 및 기후변화에 의한 안성천 유역의 지하수 함양량 변화 분석)

  • Woo, Soyoung;Kim, Wonjin;Chang, Sunwoo;Choi, Sijung;Kim, Chul-Gyum
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.489-493
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed changes in groundwater recharge due to urbanization and future climate change using the SWAT hydrological model in the Anseong river basin (1,647 km2) adjacent to the west sea of Korea. The urbanization scenario was constructed based on increasing urban density and expansion, resulting in a decrease in groundwater recharge and recharge rate by 19.9 mm and 1.77 %, respectively. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using two models representing extreme rainfall and drought, with the drought model indicating that maintaining an average recharge rate of 21.6 % would be challenging. Results from the combined scenario of urbanization and extreme drought suggest that groundwater recharge during the spring season in urban areas would be most significantly affected.

Prediction of Land-cover Change Based on Climate Change Scenarios and Regional Characteristics using Cluster Analysis (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 군집분석을 이용한 지역 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Yun-Gyeong;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

Estimation of the Regional Future Sea Level Rise Using Long-term Tidal Data in the Korean Peninsula (장기 조위자료를 이용한 한반도 권역별 미래 해수면 상승 추정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.9
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    • pp.753-766
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    • 2014
  • The future mean sea level rise (MSLR) due to climate change in major harbors of Korean Peninsula has been estimated by some statistical methods in this article. Firstly, Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test to find some trend in the observed long-term tidal data has been performed and also Bayesian change point analysis has been used also to detect the location of change points and their magnitude quantitatively. Especially, in this study, the results from Bayesian change point analysis have been applied to combine 4 future MSLR scenario projections with local MSLR data at 5 tidal gauges. This proposed procedure including Bayesian change point analysis results can improve the step for the determination of starting years of future MLSR scenario projections with 18.6-year lunar node tidal cycle and effectively consider local characteristics at each gauge. The final results by the proposed procedure in this study have shown that the future MSLR in Jeju region (Jeju tidal gauge) is in the largest increment and also the future MSLRs in Western region (Boryeong tidal gauge) and Southern region (Busan tidal gauge) are in the second largest one. Finally, it has been shown that the future MSLRs in Southern region (Yeosu tidal gauge) and Eastern region (Sokcho tidal gauge) seem to be in the relatively smallest growth among 5 gauges.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in North Korea based on RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario (RCP8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 북한의 재해위험에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se-Jin;Kim, Byung-Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.809-818
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, in order to evaluate the impact of future climate change in North Korea, we collected the climate data of each station in North Korea provided by WMO and expanded the lack of time series data. Using the RCP climate change scenario, And the impact of climate change on disasters using local vulnerability to disasters in the event of a disaster. In order to evaluate this, the 11 cities in North Korea were evaluated for Design Rainfall Load, human risk index (HRI), and disaster impact index (DII) at each stage. As a result, Jaffe increased from C grade to B grade in the Future 1 period. At Future 2, North Hwanghae proved to be dangerous as it was, and Gangwon-do and Hwanghae-do provincial grade rose to C grade. In the case of Future 3, Pyongyang City dropped from C grade to D grade, Hamgyong and Gyeongsang City descend from B grade to C grade, Gangwon-do and Jagangdo descend from C grade to D grade and Pyongyang city descend from C grade to D grade. Respectively.

Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models (기후모델에 나타난 미래기후에서 쓰시마난류의 변화와 그 영향)

  • Choi, A-Ra;Park, Young-Gyu;Choi, Hui Jin
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2013
  • In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.