• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future scenario

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A Study on the Ecosystem Services Value Assessment According to City Development: In Case of the Busan Eco-Delta City Development (도시개발에 따른 생태계서비스 가치 평가 연구: 부산 에코델타시티 사업을 대상으로)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Youngsoo;Lee, Sangdon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.427-439
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    • 2019
  • Natural environmental ecology ofthe environmental impact assessment(EIA)is very much lacking in quantitative evaluation. Thus, this study attempted to evaluate quantitative assessment for ecosystem service in the site of Eco-delta project in Busan. As a part of climate change adaptation, this study evaluated and compared with the value for carbon fixation and habitat quality using the InVEST model before and after development with three alternatives of land-use change. Carbon fixation showed 216,674.48 Mg of C (year 2000), and 203,474.25 Mg of C (year 2015)reducing about 6.1%, and in the future of year 2030 the value was dropped to 120,490.84 Mg of C which is 40% lower than year 2015. Alternative 3 of land use planning was the best in terms of carbon fixation showing 6,811.31 Mg of C. Habitat quality also changed from 0.57 (year 2000), 0.35 (year 2015), and 0.21 (year 2030) with continued degradation as development goes further. Alternative 3 also was the highest with 0.21(Alternative 1 : 0.20, Alternative 2 : 0.18). In conclusion,this study illustrated that quantitative method forland use change in the process of EIA can helpdecision making for stakeholders anddevelopers with serving the best scenario forlow impact of carbon. Also it can help better for land use plan, greenhouse gas and natural environmental assets in EIA. This study could be able to use in the environmental policy with numerical data of ecosystem and prediction. Supplemented with detailed analysis and accessibility of basic data, this method will make it possible for wide application in the ecosystem evaluation.

Development of a deep neural network model to estimate solar radiation using temperature and precipitation (온도와 강수를 이용하여 일별 일사량을 추정하기 위한 심층 신경망 모델 개발)

  • Kang, DaeGyoon;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2019
  • Solar radiation is an important variable for estimation of energy balance and water cycle in natural and agricultural ecosystems. A deep neural network (DNN) model has been developed in order to estimate the daily global solar radiation. Temperature and precipitation, which would have wider availability from weather stations than other variables such as sunshine duration, were used as inputs to the DNN model. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to train and test the DNN models. Meteorological data at 15 weather stations were collected for a long term period, e.g., > 30 years in Korea. The DNN model obtained from the cross-validation had relatively small value of RMSE ($3.75MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$) for estimates of the daily solar radiation at the weather station in Suwon. The DNN model explained about 68% of variation in observed solar radiation at the Suwon weather station. It was found that the measurements of solar radiation in 1985 and 1998 were considerably low for a small period of time compared with sunshine duration. This suggested that assessment of the quality for the observation data for solar radiation would be needed in further studies. When data for those years were excluded from the data analysis, the DNN model had slightly greater degree of agreement statistics. For example, the values of $R^2$ and RMSE were 0.72 and $3.55MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. Our results indicate that a DNN would be useful for the development a solar radiation estimation model using temperature and precipitation, which are usually available for downscaled scenario data for future climate conditions. Thus, such a DNN model would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production where solar radiation is used as a required input variable to a crop model.

A Study on the Utilization of Naval Personnel According to Characteristics of New Generations: Discussion from the Perspective of Generation Z, a Newly Emerging Generation (신세대의 특성에 따른 해군 인력 활용의 과제 - 또 다른 신세대, Z세대 관점에서의 고찰)

  • Min, Seung-Un;Kim, Seong-Yeol
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.57-82
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this treatise is to explore the limitations of the current navy manpower utilization system and the ways to improve it from the perspective of Generation Z. As Generation Z, following Millennials, has finally come of age, this new group is constituting a gradually greater proportion of military personnel. Due to the typical characteristics of naval operations, the harmony between Millennials and Generation Z, which is differentiated from Generation X in view of dispositions and traits, is one of the essential issues to be discussed. Generally, in a naval vessel, there are numerous pieces of equipment necessary to carry out a wide range of missions and a large number of crew members who operate them with consistent levels of fighting power. This is all while members are living together within the narrow space throughout the 24 hours of each day. Under such particular circumstances, any inter-generational conflicts may have a disruptive effect on the successful accomplishment of naval missions. Currently, new generations of military personnel are facing social difficulties in different aspects compared with the previous generations, and also have different viewpoints on the military. In this regard, in order to foster true harmony between generations, it is considered necessary to take a closer look at the inter-generational differences from their respective standpoints and to examine whether the military organization has taken adequate steps to respond to such changes. Accordingly, Chapters 1 and 2 cover the environments in which Millennials and Generation Z were raised during their childhood to young adulthood, which are distinct from those of older generations, their viewpoints formed based on such backgrounds, and the need to resolve various conflicts between generations. In Chapter 3, the current actions taken by overseas military powers to enhance the coexistence with Generation MZ are analyzed to find the significant implications they had. Chapter 4 examines the operation environments specific to the navy; identifies the potential barriers to achieving harmony between generations by assessing the current status of personnel utilization in the Korean navy in terms of the seaman, petty officer, and the officer, as well as policy; and outlines the solutions to drive harmony. Finally, Chapter 5 emphasizes the need to establish a genuine empathy between generations based on the understanding of unique inter-generational characteristics. This section also discusses the importance of addressing difficulties in utilizing technology-centered naval manpower, and forecasts a scenario of a naval organization that resolves the problem of utilizing naval personnel and the inter-generational conflicts in the future.

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A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Influence of identifiable victim effect on third-party's punishment and compensation judgments (인식 가능한 피해자 효과가 제3자의 처벌 및 보상 판단에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, InBeom;Kim, ShinWoo;Li, Hyung-Chul O.
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.135-153
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    • 2020
  • Identifiable victim effect refers to the tendency of greater sympathy and helping behavior to identifiable victims than to abstract, unidentifiable ones. This research tested whether this tendency also affects third-party's punishment and compensation judgments in jury context for public's legal judgments. In addition, through the Identifiable victim effect in such legal judgment, we intended to explain the effect of 'the bill named for victim', putting the victim's real name and identity at the forefront, which is aimed at strengthening the punishment of related crimes by gaining public attention and support. To do so, we conducted experiments with hypothetical traffic accident scenarios that controlled legal components while manipulating victim's identifying information. In experiment 1, each participant read a scenario of an anonymous victim (unidentifiable condition) or a nonanonymous victim that included personal information such as name and age (identifiable condition) and made judgments on the degree of punishment and compensation. The results showed no effect of identifiability on third-party's punishment and compensation judgments, but moderation effect of BJW was obtained in the identifiable condition. That is, those with higher BJW showed greater tendency of punishment and compensation for identifiable victims. In Experiment 2, we compared an anonymous victim (unidentifiable condition) against a well-conducted victim (positive condition) and ill-conducted victim (negative condition) to test the effects of victim's characteristics on punishment for offender and compensation for victims. The results showed lower compensation for an ill-conducted victim than for an anonymous one. In addition, across all conditions except for negative condition, participants made punishment and compensation judgments higher than the average judicial precedents of 10-point presented in the rating scale. This research showed that victim's characteristics other than legal components affects third-party's legal decision making. Furthermore, we interpreted third-party's tendency to impose higher punishment and compensation with effect of 'the bill named for victim' and proposed social and legal discussion for and future research.

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Yield, Nitrogen Use Efficiency and N Uptake Response of Paddy Rice Under Elevated CO2 & Temperature (CO2 및 온도 상승 시 벼의 수량, 질소 이용 효율 및 질소 흡수 반응)

  • Hyeonsoo Jang;Wan-Gyu Sang;Youn-Ho Lee;Pyeong Shin;Jin-hee Ryu;Hee-woo Lee;Dae-wook Kim;Jong-tag Youn;Ji-Won Han
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.346-358
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    • 2023
  • Due to the acceleration of climate change or global warming, it is important to predict rice productivity in the future and investigate physiological changes in rice plants. The research aimed to explore how rice adapts to climate change by examining the response of nitrogen absorption and nitrogen use efficiency in rice under elevated levels of carbon dioxide and temperature, utilizing the SPAR system for analysis. The temperature increased by +4.7 ℃ in comparison to the period from 2001 to 2010, while the carbon dioxide concentration was held steady at 800 ppm, aligning with South Korea's late 21st-century RCP8.5 scenario. Nitrogen was applied as fertilizer at rates of 0, 9, and 18 kg 10a-1, respectively. Under conditions of climate change, there was an 81% increase in the number of panicles compared to the present situation. However, grain weight decreased by 38% as a result of reduction in the grain filling rate. BNUE, indicative of the nitrogen use efficiency in plant biomass, exhibited a high value under climate change conditions. However, both NUEg and ANUE, associated with grain production, experienced a notable and significant decrease. In comparison to the current conditions, nitrogen uptake in leaves and stems increased by 100% and 151%, respectively. However, there was a 25% decrease in nitrogen uptake in the panicle. Likewise, the nitrogen content and NDFF (Nitrogen Derived from Fertilizer) in the sink organs, namely leaves and roots, were elevated in comparison to current levels. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure resources by mitigating the decrease in ripening rates under climate change conditions. Moreover, there seems to be a requirement for follow-up research to enhance the flow of photosynthetic products under climate change conditions.

Retail Product Development and Brand Management Collaboration between Industry and University Student Teams (산업여대학학생단대지간적령수산품개발화품패관리협작(产业与大学学生团队之间的零售产品开发和品牌管理协作))

  • Carroll, Katherine Emma
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.239-248
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    • 2010
  • This paper describes a collaborative project between academia and industry which focused on improving the marketing and product development strategies for two private label apparel brands of a large regional department store chain in the southeastern United States. The goal of the project was to revitalize product lines of the two brands by incorporating student ideas for new solutions, thereby giving the students practical experience with a real-life industry situation. There were a number of key players involved in the project. A privately-owned department store chain based in the southeastern United States which was seeking an academic partner had recognized a need to update two existing private label brands. They targeted middle-aged consumers looking for casual, moderately priced merchandise. The company was seeking to change direction with both packaging and presentation, and possibly product design. The branding and product development divisions of the company contacted professors in an academic department of a large southeastern state university. Two of the professors agreed that the task would be a good fit for their classes - one was a junior-level Intermediate Brand Management class; the other was a senior-level Fashion Product Development class. The professors felt that by working collaboratively on the project, students would be exposed to a real world scenario, within the security of an academic learning environment. Collaboration within an interdisciplinary team has the advantage of providing experiences and resources beyond the capabilities of a single student and adds "brainpower" to problem-solving processes (Lowman 2000). This goal of improving the capabilities of students directed the instructors in each class to form interdisciplinary teams between the Branding and Product Development classes. In addition, many universities are employing industry partnerships in research and teaching, where collaboration within temporal (semester) and physical (classroom/lab) constraints help to increase students' knowledge and experience of a real-world situation. At the University of Tennessee, the Center of Industrial Services and UT-Knoxville's College of Engineering worked with a company to develop design improvements in its U.S. operations. In this study, Because should be lower case b with a private label retail brand, Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst's (1999) revised Retail Apparel Product Development Model was used by the product development and brand management teams. This framework was chosen because it addresses apparel product development from the concept to the retail stage. Two classes were involved in this project: a junior level Brand Management class and a senior level Fashion Product Development class. Seven teams were formed which included four students from Brand Management and two students from Product Development. The classes were taught the same semester, but not at the same time. At the beginning of the semester, each class was introduced to the industry partner and given the problem. Half the teams were assigned to the men's brand and half to the women's brand. The teams were responsible for devising approaches to the problem, formulating a timeline for their work, staying in touch with industry representatives and making sure that each member of the team contributed in a positive way. The objective for the teams was to plan, develop, and present a product line using merchandising processes (following the Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst model) and develop new branding strategies for the proposed lines. The teams performed trend, color, fabrication and target market research; developed sketches for a line; edited the sketches and presented their line plans; wrote specifications; fitted prototypes on fit models, and developed final production samples for presentation to industry. The branding students developed a SWOT analysis, a Brand Measurement report, a mind-map for the brands and a fully integrated Marketing Report which was presented alongside the ideas for the new lines. In future if the opportunity arises to work in this collaborative way with an existing company who wishes to look both at branding and product development strategies, classes will be scheduled at the same time so that students have more time to meet and discuss timelines and assigned tasks. As it was, student groups had to meet outside of each class time and this proved to be a challenging though not uncommon part of teamwork (Pfaff and Huddleston, 2003). Although the logistics of this exercise were time-consuming to set up and administer, professors felt that the benefits to students were multiple. The most important benefit, according to student feedback from both classes, was the opportunity to work with industry professionals, follow their process, and see the results of their work evaluated by the people who made the decisions at the company level. Faculty members were grateful to have a "real-world" case to work with in the classroom to provide focus. Creative ideas and strategies were traded as plans were made, extending and strengthening the departmental links be tween the branding and product development areas. By working not only with students coming from a different knowledge base, but also having to keep in contact with the industry partner and follow the framework and timeline of industry practice, student teams were challenged to produce excellent and innovative work under new circumstances. Working on the product development and branding for "real-life" brands that are struggling gave students an opportunity to see how closely their coursework ties in with the real-world and how creativity, collaboration and flexibility are necessary components of both the design and business aspects of company operations. Industry personnel were impressed by (a) the level and depth of knowledge and execution in the student projects, and (b) the creativity of new ideas for the brands.

Validity and Pertinence of Administrative Capital City Proposal (행정수도 건설안의 타당성과 시의성)

  • 김형국
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.312-323
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    • 2003
  • This writer absolutely agrees with the government that regional disequilibrium is severe enough to consider moving the administrative capital. Pursuing this course solely to establish a balanced development, however, is not a convincing enough reason. The capital city is directly related to not only the social and economic situation but, much more importantly, to the domestic political situation as well. In the mid-1970s, the proposal by the Third Republic to move the capital city temporarily was based completely on security reasons. At e time, the then opposition leader Kim, Dae-jung said that establishing a safe distance from the demilitarized zone(DMZ) reflected a typically military decision. His view was that retaining the capital city close to the DMZ would show more consideration for the will of the people to defend their own country. In fact, independent Pakistan moved its capital city from Karachi to Islamabad, situated dose to Kashmir the subject of hot territorial dispute with India. It is regrettable that no consideration has been given to the urgent political situation in the Korean peninsula, which is presently enveloped in a dense nuclear fog. As a person requires health to pursue his/her dream, a country must have security to implement a balanced territorial development. According to current urban theories, the fate of a country depends on its major cities. A negligently guarded capital city runs the risk of becoming hostage and bringing ruin to the whole country. In this vein, North Koreas undoubted main target of attack in the armed communist reunification of Korea is Seoul. For the preservation of our state, therefore, it is only right that Seoul must be shielded to prevent becoming hostage to North Korea. The location of the US Armed Forces to the north of the capital city is based on the judgment that defense of Seoul is of absolute importance. At the same time, regardless of their different standpoints, South and North Korea agree that division of the Korean people into two separate countries is abnormal. Reunification, which so far has defied all predictions, may be realized earlier than anyone expects. The day of reunification seems to be the best day for the relocation of the capital city. Building a proper capital city would take at least twenty years, and a capital city cannot be dragged from one place to another. On the day of a free and democratic reunification, a national agreement will be reached naturally to find a nationally symbolic city as in Brazil or Australia. Even if security does not pose a problem, the governments way of thinking would not greatly contribute to the balanced development of the country. The Chungcheon region, which is earmarked as the new location of the capital city, has been the greatest beneficiary of its proximity to the capital region. Not being a disadvantaged region, locating the capital city there would not help alleviate regional disparity. If it is absolutely necessary to find a candidate region at present, considering security, balanced regional development and post-reunification scenario of the future, Cheolwon area located in the middle of the Korean peninsula may be a plausible choice. Even if the transfer of capital is delayed in consideration of the present political conflict between the South and the North Koreas, there is a definite shortcut to realizing a balanced regional development. It can be found not in the geographical dispersal of the central government, but in the decentralization of power to the provinces. If the government has surplus money to build a new symbolic capital city, it is only right that it should improve, for instance, the quality of drinking water which now everyone eschews, and to help the regional subway authority whose chronic deficit state resoled in a recent disastrous accident. And it is proper to time the transfer of capital city to coincide with that of the reunification of Korea whenever Providence intends.