• 축산식품과학과 산업
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.12-20
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• 2018

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.505-517
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• 2013

In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.173-187
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• 2016

This study on the social effects of Internet of Things (IoTs) provides an overview of future job prospects through the scenario planning approach, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that IoTs will bring in the future. IoTs and the related field of technological innovations have become increasingly important in both academic and business communities in the past few years because of computing power breakthrough and its price drop. IoTs enables people to deal with routine works efficiently and challenges them even in non-routine and/or cognitive tasks, which are considered a unique area for individuals. The scenario planning analysis helps us to define the uncertain boundary and to estimate the potential opportunities and inherent threats to provide decision makers with a mind map on how the development of IoTs can influence employment. To assess the potential effects on jobs described in our scenarios, we briefly examine the local structure of employment and discuss which careers are expected to decline or grow in particular among the 52 standard occupational classifications in Korea.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.139-145
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• 2023

The ROK Army is promoting cutting-edge, future-oriented military development such as a mobile, intelligent, and hyper-connected Army TIGER system. The future infantry brigade plans to increase mobility with squad-level tactical vehicles to enable combat in multi-domain operations and to deploy various weapon systems such as surveillance and reconnaissance drones. In addition, it will be developed into an intelligent unit that transmits and receives data collected through the weapon system through a hyper-connected network. Accordingly, the future infantry brigade will transmit and receive more data. However, the Army's tactical information communication system has limitations in operating as a tactical communication system for future units, such as low transmission speed and bandwidth and restrictions on communication support. Therefore, in this paper, the information distribution capability of the future infantry brigade is presented through the offensive operation scenario and M&S.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.25-35
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• 2023

The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir, it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze future runoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climate change on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed that as the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2, and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenario was found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic data for developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changes in estuary reservoirs.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.496-506
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• 2014

In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.152-155
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• 2007

Efficiency and limitations of HAZUS-MH, a GIS based systematic and informative system developed by FEMA and NIBS for natural hazard loss estimations, are discussed by means of a pilot study in the Korean Peninsular. Gyeongsang-do has been selected for the test after careful reviews of previous studies including historical and modern seismicity in the peninsular. A ShakeMap for the selected scenario earthquake with magnitude 6.7 in Gyeongju area is prepared. Then, any losses due to the scenario event have been estimated using HAZUS. Results of the pilot test show that the study area may experience significant physical, economic and social damages. Detailed study in the future will provide efficient and crucial information to the decision makers and emergency agents to mitigate any disaster posed by natural hazards.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.607-623
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• 2021

This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃^-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃^-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.13-26
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• 2013

This study is about development of technology system for MIS(Minimally Invasive Surgery) robot of S. Korea analysed by the application of scenario planning. MIS robot industry receive attention as a new growth industry for national and international and is noticeable for the leading industry of future era in Korea. In this paper was examined the characteristics of an MIS robot technology and its components. It was investigated about the technology of an overseas MIS robot(especially U.S.A) and Korean domestic MIS robot and understood such as the country's policy propulsion issues then, was searched about development direction of the future. As a result, the future policy for MIS robot of S. Korea is to further spur the development of new MIS robot technology and more improvement of the technology level of MIS robot with AR(Augmented Reality) display.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.205-216
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• 2015

The CMIP5 climate change scenarios from 34 GCMs were analyzed to quantitatively assess future changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation against the global region and the Northeast Asia region with a focus on South Korea, North Korea, or Japan. The resulting projection revealed that the Northeast Asia region is subjected to more increase in temperature and precipitation than the global means for both. In particular, temperature and precipitation in North Korea were projected to increase about $5.1^{\circ}C$ and 18%, respectively under the RCP 8.5 scenario, as compared to the historical means for 30 years (1971-2000), although a large uncertainty still exists among GCMs. For solar radiation, global mean solar radiation was predicted to decrease with time in all RCP scenarios except for the RCP 2.6 scenario. On the contrary, it was predicted that the amount of solar radiation in the Northeast Asia increases in the future period.