• Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.53-70
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• 2014

This study was performed in order to suggest the future model of Asian universities that could be used in the planning of the global competitive strategy. Futurologists forecasted the future of higher education using Harman Fan Scenario as like this. First, most current universities will be 'the satellite university' until 2015. Second, they also will replace 'the bookless university' until 2020. Third, they will be 'no calendar university' until 2025. And then they may be 'all have access university' until 2030. After 2030, futurologists prospected that almost universities based on off-line campus will be disappeared into the history. The analysis method of Harman fan scenario and applied scenarios were also used to "A study on the future scenario of Korean university". The predictive model and the alternative models were explored in a view point of students, enterprise, and government. Individuality with educational excellence are standardized for learner, profit and effectiveness are applied for enterpriser, and equality with welfare are adapted for national leader. Asian universities need to focus on bringing up the practical ability based on conscious and emotional education instead of knowledge based on memory. Also they need to enforce the specialized education that can create new jobs through convergence of interdisciplinary. Especially, Asian nations need to explore, to find the strengthen area of their universities compared with USA. And these area should be specialized. The convergency strategy between oriental medicine and informatics is a meaningful sample. Based on this point, a predicted with 3 alternative scenarios in a view point of equality were suggested for the future of Asian universities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1105-1115
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• 2018

In Korea, there are only a few cases that quantitative evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply. Therefore, to ensure stable water supply in the future, a water resources plan is needed to establish by analyzing the scenarios that take into consideration the various situations in the future. In this study, we analyzed the changes of various situations for the Nakdong River basin, and constructed it for the future scenario. The stability of the water supply was analyzed through the analysis of water supply and demand prospect for each scenario path. We selected the areas expected to experience difficulty in supplying water supply and analyzed the scenarios of future water shortage by region and water sector. Also, the effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation of water supply facilities was analyzed and presented. Analysis of the results shows that there is a difficulty in supplying water due to future climate change experienced in the Nakdong River basin. Therefore it is necessary to prepare various countermeasures in order to mitigate or solve this problem.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.77-93
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• 2013

Global warming accelerates both carbon (C) input through increased forest productivity and heterotrophic C emission in forest soils, and a future trend in soil C dynamics is uncertain. In this study, the Korean forest soil carbon model (KFSC model) was applied to 1,467,458 ha of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea to predict future C dynamics under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP scenario). Korea was divided into 16 administrative regions, and P. densiflora forests in each region were classified into six classes by their stand ages : 1 to 10 (I), 11 to 20 (II), 21 to 30 (III), 31 to 40 (IV), 41 to 50 (V), and 51 to 80-year-old (VI+). The forest of each stand age class in a region was treated as a simulation unit, then future net primary production (NPP), soil respiration (SR) and forest soil C stock of each simulation unit were predicted from the 2012 to 2100 under RCP scenario and constant temperature scenario (CT scenario). As a result, NPP decreased in the initial stage of simulation then increased while SR increased in the initial stage of simulation then decreased in both scenarios. The mean NPP and SR under RCP scenario was 20.2% and 20.0% higher than that under CT scenario, respectively. When the initial age class was I, IV, V or VI+, predicted soil C stock under CT scenario was higher than that under RCP scenario, however, the countertrend was observed when the initial age class was II or III. Also, forests having a lower site index showed a lower soil C stock. It suggested that the impact of temperature on NPP was higher when the forests grow faster. Soil C stock under RCP scenario decreased at the end of simulation, and it might be derived from exponentially increased SR under the higher temperature condition. Thus, the difference in soil C stock under two scenarios will be much larger in the further future.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.85-96
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• 2002

The future of the game industry depends on developing contents. Especially a high level game needs all kinds of scenarios. Therefore, it is important to popularize writing game scenarios. Scientific scenario study is also needed to educate talented scenario writers and game designers. This is a case study on interactive elements of the game scenario, such as items, puzzles, and events. In conclusion, when these interactive elements becoming smoothly one parts of the game the game is now perfectly finished, rather than disturbing the process of the game story. I hope that this study is some helpful to game developers.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Water for future
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• v.45 no.9
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• pp.41-46
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• 2012

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.37-49
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• 2023

Climate change is a major global problem. Oysters, one of the most representative farmed fish in Korea, are attracting attention as candidates for blue carbon, an alternative to carbon neutrality. This study is analyzed by the SSP scenarios to determine the impact of oyster aquaculture production according to climate change. Based on the analysis, future productions of oysters are predicted by the SSP scenario. Significant differences by the SSP scenario are confirmed through predictive power tests among scenarios. Regression analysis was conducted from January 2001 to December 2014. As a result of the analysis, water temperature, water temperature quadratic term, salinity, salinity quadratic term, and month × water temperature cross term were estimated as significant variables. Oyster production which is predicted by the SSP scenario based on the significant variables from 2015 to 2022 was compared with actual production. The model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE and MAPE criteria. The predictive power was compared with the MDM test to determine which model was superior. As a result, based on RMSE and MAPE, the SSP1-2.6 scenario was selected as the best model and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios all showed the same predictive power based on the MDM test. In conculusion, this study predicted oyster aquaculture production by 2030, not the distant future, due to the short duration of the analytical model. This study was found that oyster aquaculture production increased in all scenarios and there was no significant difference in predictive power by the SSP scenario.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.891-905
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• 2011

Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.69-80
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• 2009

In this research, we analyze change of directions and issues in future game industry. We start to analyze change of game contents and platform about impact of game industry under the digital convergence, and then we spread out a point of view about game user, game company, distribution of game industry over the length and breadth of game industry. In this paper, we analyze the future state of changing and the issues in online game industry under the digital convergence. For this research, we develop the on-line game industry's changing scenario. On the basis of the issue analysis about the future of the On-line game industry, we aim to provide some implications for business strategy of on-line game companies and policy of the government.