• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Risk

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Optimal Hedge Strategy Using Future Contract in the Vesting Contract Electricity Market (베스팅계약 전력시장에서 선물 최적헷지전략 연구)

  • 맹근호;송광재;박종근
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.414-419
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    • 2004
  • In TWBP new uncertainty will be increased. Risk management is risen to a important problem. Vesting contract makes market Players trade at fixed price in TWBP early stages. In the case of advanced country, market players manage risk with a future contract. When a risk management method moves from vesting contract to future contract, it may have to use together two contracts for schedule period. In this paper, risk management strategy that use vesting contract and forward contract at the same time is proposed.

Research on Corporate Risk Reporting: Current Trends and Future Avenues

  • Mazumder, Mohammed Mehadi Masud;Hossain, Dewan Mahboob
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2018
  • These days, corporate risk management has become a major concern in the corporate world. Companies in the global environment are exposed to diverse kinds of risks that are affecting the decisions of investors and other stakeholders. Therefore, companies are expected to not only identify and manage risks but also voluntarily report the same to the stakeholders. Increasingly, standard setters and regulators are requiring firms to disclose such information. On the contrary, there also exists a perception that risk reporting can create a negative impression among the stakeholders about the future of the company. In line with such growing dilemma for risk disclosures, the issue of corporate risk reporting (CRR) has been receiving immense emphasis from the accounting academicians. The main objective of this article is to conduct a comprehensive literature review on corporate risk disclosures. In order to fulfill this objective, at first, a summary of the relevant available literature is presented to identify the current regulations on risk reporting, existing trends of CRR research and theories applied in research. Then, through analysis, several research avenues are identified. It is expected that if these dimensions are explored by the future researchers, a better and broader understanding of the risk reporting practices can be achieved.

Predicting Suicidal Ideation in College Students with Mental Health Screening Questionnaires

  • Shim, Geumsook;Jeong, Bumseok
    • Psychiatry investigation
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.1037-1045
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    • 2018
  • Objective The present study aimed to identify risk factors for future SI and to predict individual-level risk for future or persistent SI among college students. Methods Mental health check-up data collected over 3 years were retrospectively analyzed. Students were categorized as suicidal ideators and non-ideators at baseline. Logistic regression analyses were performed separately for each group, and the predicted probability for each student was calculated. Results Students likely to exhibit future SI had higher levels of mental health problems, including depression and anxiety, and significant risk factors for future SI included depression, current SI, social phobia, alcohol problems, being female, low self-esteem, and number of close relationships and concerns. Logistic regression models that included current suicide ideators revealed acceptable area under the curve (AUC) values (0.7-0.8) in both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision recall (PR) curves for predicting future SI. Predictive models with current suicide non-ideators revealed an acceptable level of AUCs only for ROC curves. Conclusion Several factors such as low self-esteem and a focus on short-term rather than long-term outcomes may enhance the prediction of future SI. Because a certain range of SI clearly necessitates clinical attention, further studies differentiating significant from other types of SI are necessary.

A study on the Types of perceived risk in consumer's purchasing public apartment (아파트 구매자가 인지하는 위험유형에 관한 연구 - 전주지역을 중심으로 -)

  • 이종혜
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 1985
  • The central problem of purchasing houses is choice, which is accompanied by perception of risk. Perceived risk is defined as a risk perceived by a consumer subjectively in choice situations. The components of perceived risk are uncertainty and consequence. There are seven types of perceived risk in purchasing houses. Those are financial risk, functional risk, social risk, psychological risk, physical risk, time risk and future opportunity lost risk. The empirical survey about comsumer's purchasing Public Apartment suggests : 1) In general, rspondents perceive relatively high risk in purchasig Public Apartment. 2) Of seven risk types, financial, functionalm, future opportunity lost, time, and social risk correlate highest with overall perceived risk and explain the variance of it. 3) Physical and psychological risks don't correlate significantly with overall perceived risk. From the findings in empirical analysis, consumers are recommended to device riskreduction activities in purchasing Public Apartment. 1. Active information search is needed in purchasing Public Apartment in order to reduce overall perceived risk. 2. Housing concept should change from ownership to rental thinking. 3. Consumers should be accustomed to Housing Loans by bank. 4. Purchasing goals should be established clearly before purchasing houses. 5. Careful deliberation is required and informations from personal sources are useful.

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Present and Future of Risk Management of Construction Practice in Asia

  • Watanabe, Tsunemi
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.4-5
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    • 2015
  • Owning to rapid infrastructure development, Asia is experiencing dramatic economic growth. There are not a few cases in which, however, economic growth is achieved by increasing the external diseconomy. Pursuit of sustainable development is one of the most important issues for mankind. Under the post-industrial capitalism society, however, there seems a big risk of increase in the external diseconomy worldwide. The objectives of this manuscript are to discuss importance of risk management of construction practice in present and future. Regarding the latter, a particular attempt is made to discuss how project risk communication should be done to reduce the external diseconomy. Presently, one of the important issues in implementation of infrastructure projects is practice of risk management to properly manage time, cost, quality, and safety: mainly maximization of internal economy. Multi-party risk and uncertainty management process (MRUMP) is one of tolls to assist it. The idea on MRUMP can be used to reduce the external diseconomy through identifying, sharing, and tuning people's rhythms.

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Developing a Bayesian Network Model for Real-time Project Risk Management (실시간 프로젝트 위험관리를 위한 베이지안 네트워크 모형의 개발)

  • Kim, Jee-Young;Ahn, Sun-Eung
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2011
  • Most companies have been increasing temporary work projects to maximize the usage of their resources. They also have been developing the effective techniques for analyzing and managing the state of the projects. In order to monitor the state of a project in real-time and predict the project's future state more accurately, this paper suggests the Bayesian Network (BN) as a tool for discovering the causes of project risk and presenting the failure probability of the project. The proposed BN modeling method with consideration of the Earned Value Management (EVM) method shows how to induce the predictive and conditional probability of the risk occurrence in the future. The advantages of the suggested model are (1) that the cause of a project risk can be easily figured out via the BN, (2) that the future value of the project can be sufficiently increased by updating relevant components of the project, and (3) that more credible prediction can be made in the similar and future situation by using the data obtained in current analysis. A numerical example is also given.

The Effect of Labor Union and its Power on Information Opacity: Evidence Based on Stock Price Crash Risk

  • Shin, Heejeong
    • Journal of East Asia Management
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.25-40
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the effect of labor union and its power on information opacity. Given that the information opacity ultimately leads to the stock price crash, this study examines the relationship between labor unions and future stock price crash risk. Further, by assuming a strike by labor union as the actual power of the unionization in firms, whether labor union's power subrogated by the activity (i.e., a strike) makes a significant difference in the likelihood of future stock price crash between unionized firms is also examined. The work place survey data provided by Korea Labor Institute is used to test the hypotheses. The data is for the periods of 2004 - 2012 on firms listed on Korea Stock Exchange and KOSDAQ. The results show that while labor unionization has a positive impact on future stock price crash risk, on which labor union's power has a negative impact. This means that the existence of labor union itself might facilitate firm's information to be opaque by tolerating manager opportunism, while its power mitigates the managerial opportunism, which leads to lower future stock price crash risk. This study adds to the literature on the role of labor unions as nonfinancial stakeholders and its power in accounting environment, and also on the determinants of stock price crash. It is also valuable to examine the unions' role in terms of the economic consequences of both presence and power of the labor unions.

Risk Factors Analysis System: Current Issues and Future Directions (유해요인조사 제도의 고찰 및 발전방향)

  • Jeong, Byung-Yong
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2007
  • In 2003 the Korean Government introduced 'the risk factors analysis system' in order to prevent the work-related musculoskeletal disorders. In addition, the proclamation by the Ministry of Labor delineated eleven spheres of work associated with musculoskeletal disorders. According to Occupational Safety and Health Regulations, business proprietors who have workers engaged in tasks associated with musculoskeletal disorders are required to carry out a survey on risk factors every three years. Effective risk factors analysis principles and practices will succeed by refining the workplaces continuously. However, numerous difficulties arise during the application of risk factors analysis to the various industries. We discuss a number of issues related to risk factors analysis system, and suggest a number of directions for future work in this area.

Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Assessment on Damage Risk of Corn for High Temperature at Reproductive Stage in Summer Season Based on Climate Scenario RCP 8.5 and 4.5

  • Seo, Myung-Chul;Cho, Hyeon-Suk;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Sang, Wan-Gyu;Shin, Pyeong;Lee, Geon Hwi
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2017
  • In order to assess risk of high temperature damages about corn during reproduction stages in the future, we carried out analysis of climate change scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 distributed by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) in 2012. We established two indexes such as average of annual risk days of high temperature damage which express frequency and strengthen index of high temperature damage. As results of producing maps for 157 cities and counties about average of annual risk days of high temperature damage during total periods of scenarios, the risk of high temperature in RCP8.5 was evaluated to increase at all over nation except inland area of Gangwon province, while RCP4.5 showed similar to present, or little higher. The maps of annual risk days of high temperature damage with 10 years interval in RCP8.5 prospected that the risk for damaging corn growth would increase rapidly from 2030's. The largest risk of high temperature damage in the future of RCP8.5 was analyzed at Changnyeong county located east-south inland area in Kyeongnam province, while the smallest of risk counties were Pyeongchang, Taebaek, Inje, and Jeongseon. The prospect at 12 counties which is large to produce corn at present and contains large plains have been showed that there will be only a little increase of risk of high temperature at Goesan, Yangpyeong, Hongcheon, Seosan, and Mooju until 2060's. But considering strengthen index of high temperature damage, most regions analyzed would be prospected to increase rapidly after 2030's. To cope with high temperature damage of corn in the future, we should develop various practical technologies including breeding adapted varieties and controlling cultivation periods.