• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Prediction

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A System Dynamics Model for Growth Prediction of Low Birth Weight Infants (시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 저출생체중아의 성장예측모형)

  • Yi, Young-Hee
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for growth prediction of low birth weight infants(LBWIs) based on nutrition. This growth prediction model consists of 9 modules; body weight, height, carbohydrate, protein, lipid, micronutrient, water, activity and energy module. The results of the model simulation match well with the percentiles of weights and heights of the Korean infants, also with the growth records of 55 LBWIs, under 37 weeks of gestational age, whose weights are appropriate for their gestational age. This model can be used to understand the current growth mode of LBWIs, predict the future growth of LBWIs, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the nutrient intake for the optimal growth of LBWIs in actual practice.

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Neuroimaging-Based Deep Learning in Autism Spectrum Disorder and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

  • Song, Jae-Won;Yoon, Na-Rae;Jang, Soo-Min;Lee, Ga-Young;Kim, Bung-Nyun
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2020
  • Deep learning (DL) is a kind of machine learning technique that uses artificial intelligence to identify the characteristics of given data and efficiently analyze large amounts of information to perform tasks such as classification and prediction. In the field of neuroimaging of neurodevelopmental disorders, various biomarkers for diagnosis, classification, prognosis prediction, and treatment response prediction have been examined; however, they have not been efficiently combined to produce meaningful results. DL can be applied to overcome these limitations and produce clinically helpful results. Here, we review studies that combine neurodevelopmental disorder neuroimaging and DL techniques to explore the strengths, limitations, and future directions of this research area.

A SPECIFICATION TEST OF AT-THE-MONEY OPTION IMPLIED VOLATILITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

  • Kim, Hong-Shik
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.213-231
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    • 1996
  • In this study we conduct a specification test of at-the-money option volatility. Results show that the implied volatility estimate recovered from the Black-Scholes European option pricing model is nearly indistinguishable from the implied volatility estimate obtained from the Barone-Adesi and Whaley's American option pricing model. This study also investigates whether the use of Black-Scholes implied volatility estimates in American put pricing model significantly affect the prediction the prediction of American put option prices. Results show that, at long as the possibility of early exercise is carefully controlled in calculation of implied volatilities prediction of American put prices is not significantly distorted. This suggests that at-the-money option implied volatility estimates are robust across option pricing model.

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A Basic Study on Reginal Prediction Model for Building Damage Costs acrroding to Hurricane (태풍에 따른 지역별 건물피해액 예측모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Kim, Boo-Young;Yang, Seongpil;Kim, Sang ho;Cho, Han Byung;Son, Kiyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.253-254
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    • 2015
  • Currently, according to the climate change, the damages due to the hurricane is more increased than before. In this respect, several countries have been conducted the studies regarding the damage prediction model of buildings to minimize the damages from natural disaster. As hurricane is the complex disaster including a strong wind and heavy rain, to predict the damage of hurricane, various factors has to be considered. However, mostly research has been conducted to consider only hurricane properties. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the regression model for predicting damages of buildings considering geography, socio-economy, construction environment and hurricane information. In the future, this study can be utilized to developing damage prediction model for building from hurricane in South Korea.

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PREDICTION MODELS FOR SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS: Application to landslide hazard mapping and mineral exploration

  • Chung, Chang-Jo
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.9-9
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    • 2000
  • For the planning of future land use for economic activities, an essential component is the identification of the vulnerable areas for natural hazard and environmental impacts from the activities. Also, exploration for mineral and energy resources is carried out by a step by step approach. At each step, a selection of the target area for the next exploration strategy is made based on all the data harnessed from the previous steps. The uncertainty of the selected target area containing undiscovered resources is a critical factor for estimating the exploration risk. We have developed not only spatial prediction models based on adapted artificial intelligence techniques to predict target and vulnerable areas but also validation techniques to estimate the uncertainties associated with the predictions. The prediction models will assist the scientists and decision-makers to make two critical decisions: (i) of the selections of the target or vulnerable areas, and (ii) of estimating the risks associated with the selections.

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Selection of a Predictive Coverage Growth Function

  • Park, Joong-Yang;Lee, Gye-Min
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.909-916
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    • 2010
  • A trend in software reliability engineering is to take into account the coverage growth behavior during testing. A coverage growth function that represents the coverage growth behavior is an essential factor in software reliability models. When multiple competitive coverage growth functions are available, there is a need for a criterion to select the best coverage growth functions. This paper proposes a selection criterion based on the prediction error. The conditional coverage growth function is introduced for predicting future coverage growth. Then the sum of the squares of the prediction error is defined and used for selecting the best coverage growth function.

Optimal Pipe Replacement Analysis with a New Pipe Break Prediction Model (새로운 파괴예측 모델을 이용한 상수도 관의 최적 교체)

  • Park, Suwan;Loganathan, G.V.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.710-716
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    • 2002
  • A General Pipe Break Prediction Model that incorporates linear and exponential models in its form is developed. The model is capable of fitting pipe break trends that have linear, exponential or in between of linear and exponential trend by using a weighting factor. The weighting factor is adjusted to obtain a best model that minimizes the sum of squared errors of the model. The model essentially plots a best curve (or a line) passing through "cumulative number of pipe breaks" versus "break times since installation of a pipe" data points. Therefore, it prevents over-predicting future number of pipe breaks compared to the conventional exponential model. The optimal replacement time equation is derived by using the Threshold Break Rate equation by Loganathan et al. (2002).

PREDICTION OF U.S. GOLD FUTURES PRICES USING WAVELET ANALYSIS; A STUDY ON DEEP LEARNING MODELS

  • LEE, Donghui;KIM, Donghyun;YOON, Ji-Hun
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.39 no.1_2
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    • pp.239-249
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    • 2021
  • This study attempts to predict the price of gold futures, a real financial product, using ARIMA and LSTM. The wavelet analysis was applied to the data to predict the price of gold futures through LSTM and ARIMA. As results, it is confirmed that the prediction performance of the existing model of predict was improved. the case of predict of price of gold futures, we confirmed that the use of a deep learning model that is not affected by the non-stationary series data is suitable and the possibility of improving the accuracy of prediction through wavelet analysis.

Prediction Model of Inclination to Visit Jeju Tourist Attractions based on CNN Deep Learning

  • YoungSang Kim
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.190-198
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    • 2023
  • Sentiment analysis can be applied to all texts generated from websites, blogs, messengers, etc. The study fulfills an artificial intelligence sentiment analysis estimating visiting evaluation opinions (reviews) and visitor ratings, and suggests a deep learning model which foretells either an affirmative or a negative inclination for new reviews. This study operates review big data about Jeju tourist attractions which are extracted from Google from October 1st, 2021 to November 30th, 2021. The normalization data used in the propensity prediction modeling of this study were divided into training data and test data at a 7.5:2.5 ratio, and the CNN classification neural network was used for learning. The predictive model of the research indicates an accuracy of approximately 84.72%, which shows that it can upgrade performance in the future as evaluating its error rate and learning precision.

Projection and Analysis of Future Temperature and Precipitation using LARS-WG Downscaling Technique - For 8 Meteorological Stations of South Korea - (LARS-WG 상세화 기법을 적용한 미래 기온 및 강수량 전망 및 분석 - 우리나라 8개 기상관측소를 대상으로 -)

  • Shin, Hyung-Jin;Park, Min-Ji;Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2010
  • Generally, the GCM (General Circulation Model) data by IPCC climate change scenarios are used for future weather prediction. IPCC GCM models predict well for the continental scale, but is not good for the regional scale. This paper tried to generate future temperature and precipitation of 8 scattered meteorological stations in South Korea by using the MIROC3.2 hires GCM data and applying LARS-WG downscaling method. The MIROC3.2 A1B scenario data were adopted because it has the similar pattern comparing with the observed data (1977-2006) among the scenarios. The results showed that both the future precipitation and temperature increased. The 2080s annual temperature increased $3.8{\sim}5.0^{\circ}C$. Especially the future temperature increased up to $4.5{\sim}7.8^{\circ}C$ in winter period (December-February). The future annual precipitation of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s increased 17.5 %, 27.5 %, and 39.0 % respectively. From the trend analysis for the future projected results, the above middle region of South Korea showed a statistical significance for winter precipitation and south region for summer rainfall.