• Journal of Multimedia Information System
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.183-190
• /
• 2021

In this paper, we implement a system for a fund recommendation based on the investment propensity and for a future fund price prediction. The investment propensity is classified by scoring user responses to series of questions. The proposed system recommends the funds with a suitable risk rating to the investment propensity of the user. The future fund prices are predicted by Prophet model which is one of the machine learning methods for time series data prediction. Prophet model predicts future fund prices by learning the parameters related to trend changes. The prediction by Prophet model is simple and fast because the temporal dependency for predicting the time-series data can be removed. We implement web pages for the fund recommendation and for the future fund price prediction.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2007

The necessity of future index is increasing to predict the future location of moving objects promptly for various location-based services. A representative research topic related to future index is the probability trajectory prediction technique that improves reliability using the past trajectory information of moving objects in the road network environment. However, the prediction performance of this technique is lowered by the heavy load of extensive future trajectory search in long-range future queries, and its index maintenance cost is high due to the frequent update of future trajectory. Thus, this paper proposes the Probability Cell Trajectory-Tree (PCT-Tree), a cell-based future indexing technique for efficient long-range future location prediction. The PCT-Tree reduces the size of index by rebuilding the probability of extensive past trajectories in the unit of cell, and improves the prediction performance of long-range future queries. In addition, it predicts reliable future trajectories using information on past trajectories and, by doing so, minimizes the cost of communication resulting from errors in future trajectory prediction and the cost of index rebuilding for updating future trajectories. Through experiment, we proved the superiority of the PCT-Tree over existing indexing techniques in the performance of long-range future queries.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Design Studies Conference
• /
• 2003.05a
• /
• pp.70-71
• /
• 2003

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.283-291
• /
• 2010

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for future smoking intention among Korean adolescents aged 13 to 15 in order to identify the high risk group exposed to future smoking. Methods: The data was collected from a total of 5940 students who participated in a self-administrated questionnaire of a cross-sectional school-based survey, the 2004 Korea Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify the relevant determinants associated with intentions of adolescents’ future smoking. Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) assessment was applied to evaluate the explanation level of the developed prediction model. Results: 8.4% of male and 7.2% of female participants show their intentions of future smoking. Among non-smoking adolescents; who have past smoking experience [odds ratio (OR) 2.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92- 3.88]; who have intentions of smoking when close friends offer a cigarette (OR 31.47; 95% CI = 21.50 - 46.05); and who have friends that are mostly smokers (OR 5.27; 95% CI = 2.85 - 9.74) are more likely to be smokers in the future. The prediction model developed from this study consists of five determinants; past smoking experience; parents smoking status; friends smoking status; ownership of a product with a cigarette brand logo; and intentions of smoking from close friends’ cigarette offer. The area under the ROC curve was 0.8744 (95% CI=0.85 - 0.90) for current non-smokers. Conclusions: For efficiency, school-based smoking prevention programs need to be designed to target the high risk group exposed to future smoking through the prediction model developed by the study, instead of implementing the programs for all the students.

• Soft Computing and Machine Intelligence
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.11-23
• /
• 2021

House price prediction is a significant financial decision for individuals working in the housing market as well as for potential buyers. From investment to buying a house for residence, a person investing in the housing market is interested in the potential gain. This paper presents machine learning algorithms to develop intelligent regressions models for House price prediction. The proposed research methodology consists of four stages, namely Data Collection, Pre Processing the data collected and transforming it to the best format, developing intelligent models using machine learning algorithms, training, testing, and validating the model on house prices of the housing market in the Capital, Islamabad. The data used for model validation and testing is the asking price from online property stores, which provide a reasonable estimate of the city housing market. The prediction model can significantly assist in the prediction of future housing prices in Pakistan. The regression results are encouraging and give promising directions for future prediction work on the collected dataset.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• v.5 no.2
• /
• pp.171-176
• /
• 2007

To give a guarantee a consistently high level of quality and reliability of Telematics traffic service, traffic flow forecasting is very important issue. In this paper, we proposed an adaptable integrated prediction model to predict the traffic flow in the future. Our model combines two methods, short-term prediction model and long-term prediction model with different combining coefficients to reflect current traffic condition. Short-term model uses the Kalman filtering technique to predict the future traffic conditions. And long-term model processes accumulated speed patterns which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classifying the same day and the same time interval. Combining two models makes it possible to predict future traffic flow with higher accuracy over a longer time range. Many experiments showed our algorithm gives a better precise prediction than only an accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.19-41
• /
• 2006

The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.131-141
• /
• 2013

Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as the increasing number of occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, and the severity of their extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers of wildfire studies to assess how the future wildfire regime will change in the interactions between land and atmosphere with climate change especially over East Asia. This study was performed to estimate the future changing aspect of wildfire danger with global warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability and dryness, HI is the potential of an existing fire to become a dangerous wildfire. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations of current (1995~1999) and far future (2095~2099) were performed and analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs were utilized for the model inputs for the past and future over East Asia; future prediction was driven under the IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes of the wildfire danger regime, showing overall decreasing the wildfire danger in the future but intensified regional deviations between north and south. The overall changes of the wildfire regime seems to stem from atmospheric dryness which is sensitive to soil moisture variation. In some locations, the future wildfire danger overall decreases in summer but increases in winter or fall when the actual fire occurrence are generally peaked especially in South China.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.189-194
• /
• 2001

A practical algorithm for prediction of the sea surface temperatures (SST)from the satellite remote sensing data is presented in this paper. The fluctuations of SST consist of deterministic normals and stochastic anomalies. Due to large thermal inertia of sea water, the SST anomalies can be modelled by autoregressive or Markov process, and its near future values can be predicted provided the recent values of SST are available. The actual SST is predicted by superposing the pre-known SST normals and the predicted SST anomalies. We applied this prediction algorithm to the NOAA AVHRR weekly SST data for 18 years (1981-1998) in the seas adjacent to Korea (115-$145^{\circ}E$, 20-$55^{\circ}N$). The algorithm is applicable not only for prediction of SST in near future but also for nowcast of SST in the cloud covered regions.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.15 no.6
• /
• pp.373-383
• /
• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.