• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Forecast

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Forecasting the Changes in Construction Market by Analyzing General·Specialty Contractors' Perception on Business Area Abolition (종합·전문건설사업자의 상호시장진출 의향 및 참여방식 분석을 통한 종합·전문간 업역철폐에 따른 건설시장 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Sung-Il;Chang, Chul-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.88-97
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast future changes in the construction market following the reorganization of the construction production system by analyzing the possible market size in which general contractors and specialty contractors may participate in each other, and by carrying out a survey. The ratio of correlation between general construction and specialty construction industries was derived by analyzing the relevance of work area of general contractors and specialty contractors, the similarity of registration standards, and the market in which general contractors and specialty contractors may be able to mutually participate. In order to overcome the limitation of previous studies which analyze the changes in construction market based on the statistical data, and to analyze in more detail the impact of reorganization of construction production system from market participants' view, a survey targeting general contractors and specialty contractors for their willingness and method of participating in the mutual market was conducted. As a result of the survey, it was found that 52% of general contractors were willing to participate in the specialized construction market and 55.1% of specialty contractors were willing to participate in the general construction market. It was found that there was a high willingness to participate in the earthworks, reinforced concrete works, facility maintenance and management, water and sewage facility works, and interior works, and high competition is expected for projects with a scale of 500 million to less than 3 billion won. Through this study, it will be possible for general and specialty contractors to understand the changes in the construction market due to the reorganization of the construction industry production system, and to respond effectively to these changes.

Development for rainfall classification based on local flood vulnerability using entropy weight in Seoul metropolitan area (엔트로피 가중치를 활용한 지역별 홍수취약도 기반의 서울지역 강우기준 산정기법)

  • Lee, Seonmi;Choi, Youngje;Lee, Eunkyung;Ji, Jungwon;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.267-278
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    • 2022
  • Recently Flood damage volume has increased as heavy rain has frequently occurred. Especially urban areas are a vulnerability to flooding damage because of densely concentrated population and property. A local government is preparing to mitigate flood damage through the heavy rain warning issued by Korea Meteorological Administration. This warning classification is identical for a national scale. However, Seoul has 25 administrative districts with different regional characteristics such as climate, topography, disaster prevention state, and flood damage severity. This study considered the regional characteristics of 25 administrative districts to analyze the flood vulnerability using entropy weight and Euclidean distance. The rainfall classification was derived based on probability rainfall and flood damage rainfall that occurred in the past. The result shows the step 2 and step 4 of rainfall classification was not significantly different from the heavy rain classification of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The flood vulnerability is high with high climate exposure and low adaptability to climate change, and the rainfall classification is low in the northern region of Seoul. It is possible to preemptively respond to floods in the northern region of Seoul based on relatively low rainfall classification. In the future, we plan to review the applicability of rainfall forecast data using the rainfall classification of results from this study. These results will contribute to research for preemptive flood response measures.

Flood Runoff Simulation Using GIS-Grid Based K-DRUM for Yongdam-Dam Watershed (GIS격자기반 K-DRUM을 활용한 용담댐유역 홍수유출모의)

  • Park, Jin Hyeog;Hur, Young Teck;Ryoo, Kyong Sik;Lee, Geun Sang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1D
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the rapid development of GIS technology has made it possible to handle a various data associated with spatially hydrological parameters with their attribute information. Therefore, there has been a shift in focus from lumped runoff models to distributed runoff models, as the latter can consider temporal and spatial variations of discharge. This research is to evaluate the feasibility of GIS based distributed model using radar rainfall which can express temporal and spatial distribution in actual dam watershed during flood runoff period. K-DRUM (K-water hydrologic & hydaulic Distributed flood RUnoff Model) which was developed to calculate flood discharge connected to radar rainfall based on long-term runoff model developed by Kyoto- University DPRI (Disaster Prevention Research Institute), and Yondam-Dam watershed ($930km^2$) was applied as study site. Distributed rainfall according to grid resolution was generated by using preprocess program of radar rainfall, from JIN radar. Also, GIS hydrological parameters were extracted from basic GIS data such as DEM, land cover and soil map, and used as input data of distributed model (K-DRUM). Results of this research can provide a base for building of real-time short-term rainfall runoff forecast system according to flash flood in near future.

An Analysis on the Preference and Use-Demand Forecasting of Bus Information (버스정보의 선호도 및 이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won Gyu;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.791-799
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    • 2008
  • To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.

A Study on Forecasting of the Manpower Demand for the Eco-friendly Smart Shipbuilding (친환경 스마트 선박 인력 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Hoon;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2023
  • This study forecasted the manpower demand of eco-friendly smart shipbuilding, whose importance and weight are increasing according to the environmental regulations of the IMO and the spread of the 4th industrial revolution technology. It predicted the shipbuilding industry manpower by applying various models of trend analysis and time series analysis based on data from 2000 to 2020 of Statistics Korea. It was found that the prediction applying geometric mean had the smallest gap among the trend and time series analysis methods in comparing between forecast results and actual data for the past 5 years. Therefore, the demand for manpower in the shipbuilding industry was predicted by using the geometric mean method. In addition, the manpower demand of smart eco-friendly ships wast forecasted by using the 2018 and 2020 manpower survey results of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and reflecting the trend of manpower increase in the shipbuilding industry. The result of forecasting showed that 62,001 person in 2025 and 85,035 people in 2030. This study is expected to contribute to the adjustment of manpower supply and demand and the training professional manpower in the future by increasing the accuracy of forecasting for high value-added eco-friendly smart ships.

Analysis and Forecasting of Daily Bulk Shipping Freight Rates Using Error Correction Models (오차교정모형을 활용한 일간 벌크선 해상운임 분석과 예측)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of daily freight rates of dry bulk and tanker shipping markets and their forecasting accuracy by using the error correction models. In order to calculate the error terms from the co-integrated time series, this study uses the common stochastic trend model (CSTM model) and vector error correction model (VECM model). First, the error correction model using the error term from the CSTM model yields more appropriate results of adjustment speed coefficient than one using the error term from the VECM model. Furthermore, according to the adjusted determination coefficients (adjR2), the error correction model of CSTM-model error term shows more model fitness than that of VECM-model error term. Second, according to the criteria of mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) which measure the forecasting accuracy, the results show that the error correction model with CSTM-model error term produces more accurate forecasts than that of VECM-model error term in the 12 cases among the total 15 cases. This study proposes the analysis and forecast tasks 1) using both of the CSTM-model and VECM-model error terms at the same time and 2) incorporating additional data of commodity and energy markets, and 3) differentiating the adjustment speed coefficients based the sign of the error term as the future research topics.

Russia-Central Asia relations -Focusing on the period after the establishment of the EAEU in 2015- (러시아·중앙아시아 관계 -2015년 EAEU 창설 이후를 중심으로-)

  • Sang Nam Park
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.85-114
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze Russia-Central Asia relations since the launch of the EAEU in 2015 and forecast the future from a structural realism perspective. Bilateral relations have both elements of close cooperation and elements of conflict. Russia and Central Asia, which have the characteristics of an authoritarian alliance, also have a symbiotic relationship in which they have no choice but to cooperate with each other to maintain the regime. Based on this, Russia has made various efforts to reunify Central Asia. Central Asia also has no choice but to cooperate with Russia for its survival, but at the same time, it has expanded its scope of cooperation in the international community to avoid being subjugated to Russia again. However, as China's power expands, Russia's relative weakness, and wariness toward Russia increases after the Ukraine War, the gap in bilateral relations is widening. In particular, as China's influence grows, Russia's nervousness also increases. This is why Putin visits Central Asia and holds active summit talks even during the war in Ukraine. If competition between Russia and China surfaces, there is a high possibility that the international order in Central Asia will become unstable. However, it is still unlikely that the power of Russia and China will reverse in Central Asia. Above all, the security, historical, and cultural connections between Russia and Central Asia are areas that are difficult for China to catch up with. Therefore, a weakening of Russia's influence compared to the past is inevitable, but its superiority is expected to continue. If Russia breaks away from belligerence and transforms into an attractive cooperative partner, there is a possibility that bilateral relations will take an upward turn again. However, it seems unlikely that such changes and innovations will occur under the Putin regime. Therefore, the biggest obstacle to realizing Putin's goal of reunifying Central Asia is Putin himself.

Research on Farmer's Response to the Farm-customized Early Warning Service for Weather Risk Management in Korea (농장맞춤형 기상재해 조기경보서비스의 농업인 반응조사)

  • Soo Jin Kim;Sangtaek Seo;Kyo-Moon Shim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed farmer's responses to the pilot project in advance of the nationwide expansion of the farm-customized early warning service for weather risk management by conducting a survey among all farmers who received text messages of this service. We analyzed not only the satisfaction of farmers with the early warning service, but also the effectiveness of the service in preventing agrometeorological disasters through cross-tabulation analysis of survey results. More than 330 farmers participated in the survey, and more than 60% of the respondents said that they had prevented or mitigated crop disasters by using the early warning service. The cross-tabulation analysis showed that farmers who perceived the field-specific weather information of the early warning service to be more accurate than the weather forecast were statistically significantly more likely to prevent crop disasters than those who did not. According to our case study, farmers who grew open field fruit crops were particularly sensitive to weather information and confirmed that early warning services, along with disaster prevention facilities, were effective in preparing for freezing and frost injury that had been occurring frequently under the influence of climate change. This study is significant in that it is the first to systematically analyze the effectiveness of the farm-customized early warning service for weather risk management based on extensive surveys. It is expected to contribute to exploring ways to develop the service ahead of the nationwide expansion of the early warning service in the near future.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

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