• Title/Summary/Keyword: Four Parameter Beta

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An Hourly Extreme Data Estimation Method Developed Using Nonstationary Bayesian Beta Distribution (비정상성 Bayesian Beta 분포를 이용한 시 단위 극치자료 추정기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Jae Chul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.256-272
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    • 2017
  • Extreme rainfall has become more frequent over the Korean peninsula in recent years, causing serious damages. In a changing climate, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to overestimate (or underestimate) the design rainfalls. A main objective of this study is to develop a stochastic disaggregation method of seasonal rainfall to hourly extreme rainfall, and offer a way to derive the nonstationary IDF curves. In this study, we propose a novel approach based on a Four-Parameter Beta (4P-beta) distribution to estimate the nonstationary IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) seasonal rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the 4P beta distribution. Moreover, this study employed a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters. The proposed model showed a comparable design rainfall to that of GEV distribution under the stationary assumption. As a nonstationary rainfall frequency model, the proposed model can effectively translate the seasonal variation into the sub-daily extreme rainfall.

Tree Size Distribution Modelling: Moving from Complexity to Finite Mixture

  • Ogana, Friday Nwabueze;Chukwu, Onyekachi;Ajayi, Samuel
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2020
  • Tree size distribution modelling is an integral part of forest management. Most distribution yield systems rely on some flexible probability models. In this study, a simple finite mixture of two components two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared with complex four-parameter distributions in terms of their fitness to predict tree size distribution of teak (Tectona grandis Linn f) plantations. Also, a system of equation was developed using Seemingly Unrelated Regression wherein the size distributions of the stand were predicted. Generalized beta, Johnson's SB, Logit-Logistic and generalized Weibull distributions were the four-parameter distributions considered. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and negative log-likelihood value were used to assess the distributions. The results show that the simple finite mixture outperformed the four-parameter distributions especially in stands that are bimodal and heavily skewed. Twelve models were developed in the system of equation-one for predicting mean diameter, seven for predicting percentiles and four for predicting the parameters of the finite mixture distribution. Predictions from the system of equation are reasonable and compare well with observed distributions of the stand. This simplified mixture would allow for wider application in distribution modelling and can also be integrated as component model in stand density management diagram.

An Hourly Extreme Data Estimation Method Developed in South Korea (우리나라의 시 단위 극치자료 추정기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Do, Ki-Bong;Han, Young-Chun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2017
  • 우리나라뿐만 아니라 세계의 여러 국가에서 과거 발생 했던 강수의 통계적 특성에서 벗어나는 극치사상이 빈번 하게 관측되고 있다. 이와 같은 현상에 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 요인중 하나로서 지구온난화가 원인으로 고려되고 있으며 실제 산업화 이후 온실가스의 증가와 더불어 극한 기상현상의 발생 빈도가 증가하였다. 우리나라는 과거 발생패턴과는 다른 극치 강우 사상이 빈번하게 관측되고 있으며 이로 인한 피해도 증가되고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 점에서 기존의 연구에서 개발한 계절강수량을 입력 자료로 하여 극치강수량을 추정할 수 있는 비정상성 Four - Parameter(4P)-Beta분포를 이용한 알고리즘을 본 연구에서는 기상인자를 이용하여 모형 내에서 계절강수량을 직접적으로 예측할 수 있는 알고리즘을 추가하여, 이를 직접적으로 일단위 이하의 극치강수량을 상세화 시킬 수 있는 모형으로 확장하고자 하며, 이를 통해 기상변동성을 다양한 시간규모에서 고려하기 위한 정보로 활용하고자 하였다.

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A Development of Summer Seasonal Rainfall and Extreme Rainfall Outlook Using Bayesian Beta Model and Climate Information (기상인자 및 Bayesian Beta 모형을 이용한 여름철 계절강수량 및 지속시간별 극치 강수량 전망 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Lee, Moon-Seob;Chae, Byung-Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.655-669
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we developed a hybrid forecasting model based on a four-parameter distribution which allows a simultaneous season-ahead forecasting for both seasonal rainfall and sub-daily rainfall in Han-River and Geum-River basins. The proposed model is mainly utilized a set of time-varying predictors and the associated model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian nonstationary rainfall frequency framework. The hybrid forecasting model was validated through an cross-validatory experiment using the recent rainfall events during 2014~2017 in both basins. The seasonal precipitation results showed a good agreement with the observations, which is about 86.3% and 98.9% in Han-River basin and Geum-River basin, respectively. Similarly, for the extreme rainfalls at sub-daily scale, the results showed a good correspondence between the observed and simulated rainfalls with a range of 65.9~99.7%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model could be used to better consider climate variability at multiple time scales.

Effect of ${\beta}$-Glucosidase as a Feed Supplementary on the Growth Performance, Digestive Enzymes and Physiology of Broilers

  • Qian, L.C.;Sun, J.Y.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2009
  • The effects of ${\beta}$-glucosidase on the overall growth performance and a set of physiological parameters of broilers were investigated. 240 male, one-day old Avine broiler chickswere randomly allocated to four treatment groups and fed with a corn-soybean meal supplemented with 0% (control), 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.6% ${\beta}$-glucosidase. The 0.2% ${\beta}$-glucosidase group, but not the 0.4% and 0.6% ${\beta}$-glucosidase groups, showed a significantly increased average daily weight gain (p<0.05) over that of the control. All three ${\beta}$-glucosidase feed groups showed significantly higher feed conversion ratios than the control group (p<0.05). Feed supplementation of 0.2% ${\beta}$-glucosidase significantly raised the contents of serum isoflavone aglycones as shown by decreases of genistin and daizin (p<0.01) and an increase of daidzein (p<0.01). The 0.2% ${\beta}$-glucosidase feeding significantly increased the intestinal amylase activity while it had little effect on lipase and trypsin activities (p>0.05). 0.2% ${\beta}$-glucosidase feeding also significant elevated the levels of highdensity lipoprotein cholesterol and malate dehydrogenase while lowering the level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Finally, ${\beta}$-glucosidase improved the anti-oxidative activities of the animals; the 0.2% ${\beta}$-glucosidase feed group had higher activities of superoxide dismutase (p<0.05), glutathione peroxidase and glutathione reductase in the liver (p<0.05), and malondialdehyde level in the serum (p<0.05).

Characteristics of Parameters for the Distribution of fatigue Crack Growth Lives wider Constant Stress Intensity factor Control (일정 응력확대계수 제어하의 피로균열전파수명 분포의 파라메터 특성)

  • 김선진
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2003
  • The characteristics of the parameters for the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life, using the non-Gaussian random process simulation method is investigated. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial random process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the crack length equals the number of cycle curves that are simulated. The results are obtained for constant stress intensity factor range conditions with stress ratios of R=0.2, three specimen thickness of 6, 12 and 18mm, and the four stress intensity level. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Wiubull,, showing a slight dependence on specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The shape parameter, $\alpha$, does not show the dependency of thickness and stress intensity level, but the scale parameter, $\beta$, and location parameter, ${\gamma}$, are decreased by increasing the specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The slope for the stress intensity level is larger than the specimen thickness.

Characteristics of Parameters for the Distribution of Fatigue Crack Growth Lives under Constant Stress Intensity Factor Control (일정 응력확대계수 제어하의 피로균열전파수명 분포의 파라메터 특성에 관하여)

  • Kim, Seon-Jin;Kim, Young-Sik;Jeong, Hyeon-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.301-306
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    • 2002
  • The characteristics of parameters for the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth lives by the non-Gaussian random process simulation method is investigated. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial random process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the crack length - the number of cycles curves are simulated. The results are obtained for constant stress intensity factor range conditions with stress ratio of R=0.2, three specimen thickness of 6, 12 and 18mm, and the four stress intensity level. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth lives seems to follow the 3-parameter Wiubull and shows a slight dependence on specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The shape parameter, ${\alpha}$, does not show the dependency of thickness and stress intensity level, but the scale parameter, ${\beta}$, and location parameter, ${\upsilon}$, are decreased by increasing the specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The slope for the stress intensity level is larger than the specimen thickness.

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Impact of Parameters of Nonlinear Breach Progression Curve on Outflow Rate (저수지 붕괴함수의 매개변수 결정이 유량과 침수범위에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.211-217
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    • 2019
  • A Numerical modeling approach is usually applied to reproduce the physical phenomena of a fill dam-break. The accuracy of the dam-break model depends on the physical structure that defines input variables such as the storage volume, breach formation and progress, and the parameters of the model, which are subjective as they are prescribed by users. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was performed for the nonlinear breach progression curve that was already developed, which includes four parameters. The study focuses on the two of the parameters which control the breach forming time and peak discharge. The model is coupled with a two-dimensional flood simulation model (FLO-2D) to examine flood coverage and depth. It is generally observed that the parameter ${\beta}$ controls only the breach forming time, the parameter ${\gamma}$ is particularly sensitive to the peak flow.

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Spatial and Temporal Temperature Simulation in the Hapcheon Dam Reservoir (합천댐 저수지에서의 시공간적 수온모의를 위한 매개변수 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Boram;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1181-1191
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    • 2013
  • This study have implemented finding the optimal water temperature parameter set for Hapcheon dam reservoir using CE-QUAL-W2 model. In particular the sensitivity analysis was carried out for four water temperature parameters of wind sheltering coefficient (WSC), radiation heat coefficient (BETA), light extinction coefficient (EXH2O), heat exchange coefficient at the channel bed (CBHE). Firstly, WSC, BETA, EXH2O shows relatively high sensitivity in common during April to September, and CBHE does during August to November. Secondly, as a result of identifying depth range of parameter influence, BETA and EXH2O show 0~9 m and 8~14 m which is thermocline layer close to water surface, CBHE is deep layer 12 m away from bottom. Finally, applying annual or monthly optimal parameter sets indicates that the bias between two sets does not show much differences for WSC and CBHE parameters, but BETA and EXH2O parameters show $0.20^{\circ}C$ and $0.51^{\circ}C$ of monthly average biases for two parameter sets. In particular the bias reveals to be $0.4^{\circ}C$ and $1.09^{\circ}C$ during May and August that confirms the necessity of use of monthly parameters during that season. It is claimed that the current operational custom use of annual parameters in calibration of reservoir water quality model requires the improvement of using monthly parameters.

LEONARD PAIRS OF RACAH AND KRAWTCHOUK TYPE IN LB-TD FORM

  • Alnajjar, Hasan
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.401-414
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    • 2019
  • Let ${\mathcal{F}}$ denote an algebraically closed field with characteristic not two. Fix an integer $d{\geq}3$, let $Mat_{d+1}({\mathcal{F}})$ denote the ${\mathcal{F}}$-algebra of $(d+1){\times}(d+1)$ matrices with entries in ${\mathcal{F}}$. An ordered pair of matrices A, $A^*$ in $Mat_{d+1}({\mathcal{F}})$ is said to be LB-TD form whenever A is lower bidiagonal with subdiagonal entries all 1 and $A^*$ is irreducible tridiagonal. Let A, $A^*$ be a Leonard pair in $Mat_{d+1}({\mathcal{F}})$ with fundamental parameter ${\beta}=2$, with this assumption there are four families of Leonard pairs, Racah, Hahn, dual Hahn, Krawtchouk type. In this paper we show from these four families only Racah and Krawtchouk have LB-TD form.