• 무역학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.83-98
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the effects of international trade in intermediate input on the implications of international business cycle properties in Korea. To do this, I have extended standard one goods New Keynesian international business cycle model to incorporate the role of intermediate inputs. After constructing the DSGE model, I have analysed the impulse response function and varian decomposition results. The results show that the model could introduce a new channel, that is, "cost channel" like Eyquem and Kamber (2014). In other words, the model has changed the dynamics of aggregate inflation by the cost channel. When the trade in intermediate goods increase, which is measured by openness of foreign input, the volatility of output, consumption and inflation increase two or three times. However, the model itself fails to explain the full account of cycle behavior of historical data, but the results imply that the trade in intermediate input assumption can help to improve the forecasting ability of international business cycle models.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권8호
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• pp.25-44
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• 2021

Purpose - This research aims to provide empirical evidence that highlights the importance of imported intermediate goods in long-term economic growth. To this end, this paper develops an index that measures the productivity gains associated with a country's intermediate goods imports using highly disaggregated trade data. Design/methodology - The basic hypothesis is that countries sourcing higher-productivity (or higher-quality) inputs from developed economies derive a larger benefit from foreign R&D. To explore this hypothesis, standard cross-country growth regressions are performed using the highly disaggregated data from the United Nations (UN) Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE). To address the endogeneity issue, I apply an instrumental variable (IV) approach. Findings - The results of this study demonstrate that the index predicts subsequent economic growth in middle- and low-income countries. This finding is consistent with previous studies that have argued that developing countries can achieve substantial productivity gains by importing intermediate inputs from developed countries. By contrast, there is no evidence of a significant association between the index and economic growth in high-income countries. Originality/value - This paper contributes to our understanding of the causal relationship between international trade and economic growth. From an economic policy perspective, the results suggest that developing countries with limited technology endowment can boost growth from input-tariff liberalization.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.147-175
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• 2006

One of the biggest problems of Korean economy is polarization of firms for export and domestic demand and that of conglomerates and SME's achievement. One of the culprits lies weakness of intermediate industry such as machine tool. Since intermediate industry is important path where export performance affects domestic demand and whose actor usually is SMEs with high spill over effect in labor market. Especially, intermediate industry Is vulnerable because of industrial policy biased In backward linkage effect. However if a country fails to develop intermediate industry above some critical point, that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. In case of benign circle where final goods industry growth leads growth of intermediate industry and again it leads that of final goods industry, it can reach high-tech equilibrium. By contrast, in opposite case where in industrialization latecomer fails to link industries likewise above some critical point that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. Moreover, for several reasons, machine tool firms of Korea have difficulty in catching up technology above critical point. Firstly. Conglomerate demander neglects their product. Secondly, even after success of development overcoming difficulties they fail to get market share for response of dumping of foreign competitors. And the last one is patent litigation of foreign competitors that incapacitate the technology development. For these, Korean machine tool firms fell in 'middle-income country trap' itself, since they stuck in some extent when they technologically catch up. Consequently, for latecomer country in machine tool industry to leapfrog meaningfully policy support is necessary, Weak intermediate industry does not Induce domestic firms and remained fragile. Therefore, localization, policy should reflect condition of technological catch up more than before, in order to be effective and fruitful. There should be turning point over relationship between conglomerates, major demander of machine tool and SME's, for only with active purchasing of conglomerate Korean machine industry can grow.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.173-187
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• 2022

Since the economic reform 1991, Indian has been implementing policies to promote trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In particular, since the inauguration of the Modi government in 2014, India has created an economic environment in which more FDI can be launched and more jobs created in manufacturing sector. This study aims to analyze between FDI outflows and export from Korea to India. Using the quarter data from 2000 to 2021, this study examines panel regression. From the panel regression result, Korea's FDI outflows to India has a significantly positive impact on the Korea's export into India. Therefore, the relationship between FDI outflows and export from Korea to India is complementary. It is due that Korea's companies invest into India directly for the purpose of construction of production factors, and export capital goods and intermediate goods for producing in the factors. Therefore, for promoting FDI and export between Korea and India, Korean government should do continuous economic cooperation and discussion for the cooperation with Indian government.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.71-97
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• 2015

This study examines the effects of several factors indicating economic openness-imported intermediate goods, total imports, IFDI (inward foreign direct investment), and foreign ownership-on regular, irregular jobs and the ratio of irregular employment to regular employment. Findings revealed that imported intermediate inputs and IFDI affected neither regular nor irregular job figures. However, an increase in total imports led to a decrease in the number of irregular jobs without affecting regular full time jobs, leading to a decrease in the ratio of irregular jobs to regular jobs. On the other hand, changes in foreign ownership structure had a contrary effect, that is, a decrease in the number of regular jobs and an increase in irregular ones, and, thus, an increase in the ratio of irregular jobs to regular jobs. Overall results showed that a rise in imports results in depressed overall employment, irregular employment in particular, while more IFDI results in more irregular jobs replacing regular ones, effectively exacerbating job insecurity. The implication of this analysis is that greater economic openness may have a negative impact on the South Korean labor market overall.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.3-29
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• 2010

본 논문의 목적은 해외에서 발생하는 화폐교란과 실물교란이 중간재를 수입하는 소국경제에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 알아보고, 또한 소국에서의 물가상승에 대한 명목임금연동정도가 해외경제교란이 소국경제에 전파되는 과정에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 알아보는데 있다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 변동환율제 하에서 자본이동이 완전하며, 합리적 기대가정 하에서 2국 2재화 모형을 채택하였다. 본 논문의 분석결과에 의하면 해외에서 발생하는 화폐교란과 실물교란은 가격효과, 해외승수효과, 자본이동을 통한 이자효과, 물가와 환율변동에 의한 상대가격효과, 그리고 실질잔고효과를 통하여 소국경제에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문에서는 한국과 미국의 통계자료를 사용하여 실증분석을 하였다. 이를 통해 미국에서 발생하는 화폐교란과 실물교란이 한국경제에 어떤 영향을 미치는지, 그리고 한국에서의 임금연동지수가 미국에서 발생하는 경제교란이 한국경제에 전파되는 과정에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 알아보았다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2018

본 연구는 OECD-WTO의 부가가치 기준 무역(TiVA) 데이터를 이용하여 경제통합이 부가가치 기준 무역에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 연구결과 경제통합은 회원국간의 무역을 통계적으로 유의하게 증가시키는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 전통적 의미의 최종재와 중간재뿐만 아니라 수출에서 차지하는 국내 및 외국의 부가가치 규모도 증가하는 것을 확인하였다. 아울러 경제통합이 국내 및 외국의 부가가치 무역을 증가시키는 효과가 대체로 비슷하여 총수출에서 국내부가가치가 차지하는 비중을 증가시키거나 감소시키지 않는다는 것을 확인하였다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.102-116
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the relationship between firm productivity and importing intermediate inputs in the Korean manufacturing sector. Design/methodology - This paper tests the two related hypotheses on the relationship between importing and productivity for a sample of Korean manufacturing firms. We test the self-selection hypothesis by comparing pre-entry levels of productivity between importers and non-importers. We test the learning-by-importing hypothesis by employing propensity score matching with differencein-differences approach. Findings - Future importers are more productive than future non-importers years before they start to import, which supports the self-selection hypothesis. In contrast, there is no strong evidence for learning-by-importing. Originality/value - This paper is the first study to explore the relationship between importing and firm-level productivity for Korean firms. The results have an important implication on trade policies to lower or raise trade barriers in imported inputs.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.51-65
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• 2020

According to an analysis of 560 foreign-invested companies investing in South Korea's manufacturing industry, the following three facts were found. First, the proportion of sales by manufacturing foreign-invested companies is divided into 68.5 percent of domestic sales and 31.5 percent of exports. From 68.5 percent of domestic sales, sales to Korean companies are 60.5 percent, including 37.1 percent for large companies and 23.4 percent for small and medium-sized companies, while only 8.0 percent for domestic consumers. Second, the investment sectors of manufacturing foreign-invested enterprises are 'machine and equipment manufacturing', 'chemical and chemical-chemical material manufacturing-excluding pharmaceuticals', 'electronic components, computers, video, sound and communication equipment manufacturing' and 'vehicle and trailer manufacturing'. It overlaps with electric·electronics, petro-chemicals and automobiles, which are Korea's main industries and areas of Korean global companies. Third, 31.5 percent of the sales of foreign-invested companies in the manufacturing sector are exported. Foreign-invested companies export their products to use them for their parents or affiliates or to the third countries. The analysis shows that foreign-invested companies invested in Korea for B2B transactions with Korean companies. The implications are that Korea can attract foreign investments by utilizing Korean companies' demand for intermediate goods. Foreign-invested companies can invest in Korea in order to use Korea, which has signed free trade agreements with the US, the EU and ASEAN, as an export platform.

• 경제분석
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.72-113
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• 2020

이 연구는 1995년 1분기부터 2019년 3분기까지의 북·중무역 자료를 사용하여 북한의 가장 중요한 외화획득 원천이었던 광물 수출과 품목별 수입 간의 관계를 공적분, 벡터자기회귀모형, 그리고 충격반응함수를 통하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면 광물 수출은 수입품 중 식품, 연료, 자본재류 중간재와 공적분 관계를 가지는 것으로 추정되었다. 한편, 벡터자기회귀 분석 결과 광물 수출에 구조변화가 있었던 2010년 3분기 전후로 광물 수출과 품목별 수입의 단기적인 관계에서 상반된 결과를 발견할 수 있었다. 구조변화 이전에는 수입 충격이 광물 수출에 영향을 준 반면 구조변화 이후에는 광물 수출 충격이 차량, 섬유류 중간재, 기타 중간재, 사치재 수입을 증가시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 본 연구의 추정결과는 2010년 이후 급증한 북한의 광물 수출이 북한의 경제성장에 기여할 가능성과 한계를 동시에 보여준다. 광물 수출이 식품, 연료 등의 필수재와 더불어 자본재류 중간재와 공적분 관계를 가지며, 단기적으로는 자본재 수입과 각종 중간재 수입을 증가시킨다는 점은 광물 수출이 경제성장에 기여할 가능성을 보여준다. 그러나 기계설비자산 등 자본량 축적에 필요한 자본재 수입과의 장기균형관계는 발견되지 않았으며, 단기적 영향도 차량수입 증가에 국한된 것으로 추정되어 광물 수출에 의한 성장효과는 제한적이었을 것으로 평가된다.