• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecast Precision

Search Result 53, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

[Reivew]Prediction of Cervical Cancer Risk from Taking Hormone Contraceptivese

  • Su jeong RU;Kyung-A KIM;Myung-Ae CHUNG;Min Soo KANG
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-29
    • /
    • 2024
  • In this study, research was conducted to predict the probability of cervical cancer occurrence associated with the use of hormonal contraceptives. Cervical cancer is influenced by various environmental factors; however, the human papillomavirus (HPV) is detected in 99% of cases, making it the primary attributed cause. Additionally, although cervical cancer ranks 10th in overall female cancer incidence, it is nearly 100% preventable among known cancers. Early-stage cervical cancer typically presents no symptoms but can be detected early through regular screening. Therefore, routine tests, including cytology, should be conducted annually, as early detection significantly improves the chances of successful treatment. Thus, we employed artificial intelligence technology to forecast the likelihood of developing cervical cancer. We utilized the logistic regression algorithm, a predictive model, through Microsoft Azure. The classification model yielded an accuracy of 80.8%, a precision of 80.2%, a recall rate of 99.0%, and an F1 score of 88.6%. These results indicate that the use of hormonal contraceptives is associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer. Further development of the artificial intelligence program, as studied here, holds promise for reducing mortality rates attributable to cervical cancer.

A Model to Estimate Software Development Effort Based on COSMIC-FFP Using System Complexity (시스템 복잡도를 적용한 COSMIC-FFP 기반 소프트웨어 개발노력 추정 모델)

  • Park, Sang-Ki;Park, Man-Gon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
    • /
    • v.13 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1575-1585
    • /
    • 2010
  • It is very important to forecast a back resource of a software development effort at the early stage of development life cycle for successful project processing, and it is carried out through software size estimation. The recent trend of software size estimation method is focused on the user's value such as FPA. We measure the actual development effort through case study and calculate CFP directly according to the cosmic-ffp manual V.3.0. in this paper. We also propose the software development effort estimation model by using the produced data. COSMIC-FFP does not use weights of necessary function elements, and so it has disadvantage in estimating sizes. This paper proposes the estimation model to estimate the precision software size by using system complexity as weight.

MPC-based Two-stage Rolling Power Dispatch Approach for Wind-integrated Power System

  • Zhai, Junyi;Zhou, Ming;Dong, Shengxiao;Li, Gengyin;Ren, Jianwen
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.648-658
    • /
    • 2018
  • Regarding the fact that wind power forecast accuracy is gradually improved as time is approaching, this paper proposes a two-stage rolling dispatch approach based on model predictive control (MPC), which contains an intra-day rolling optimal scheme and a real-time rolling base point tracing scheme. The scheduled output of the intra-day rolling scheme is set as the reference output, and the real-time rolling scheme is based on MPC which includes the leading rolling optimization and lagging feedback correction strategy. On the basis of the latest measured thermal unit output feedback, the closed-loop optimization is formed to correct the power deviation timely, making the unit output smoother, thus reducing the costs of power adjustment and promoting wind power accommodation. We adopt chance constraint to describe forecasts uncertainty. Then for reflecting the increasing prediction precision as well as the power dispatcher's rising expected satisfaction degree with reliable system operation, we set the confidence level of reserve constraints at different timescales as the incremental vector. The expectation of up/down reserve shortage is proposed to assess the adequacy of the upward/downward reserve. The studies executed on the modified IEEE RTS system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A Detecting Technique for the Climatic Factors that Aided the Spread of COVID-19 using Deep and Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Al-Sharari, Waad;Mahmood, Mahmood A.;Abd El-Aziz, A.A.;Azim, Nesrine A.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.131-138
    • /
    • 2022
  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) is viewed as one of the main general wellbeing theaters on the worldwide level all over the planet. Because of the abrupt idea of the flare-up and the irresistible force of the infection, it causes individuals tension, melancholy, and other pressure responses. The avoidance and control of the novel Covid pneumonia have moved into an imperative stage. It is fundamental to early foresee and figure of infection episode during this troublesome opportunity to control of its grimness and mortality. The entire world is investing unimaginable amounts of energy to fight against the spread of this lethal infection. In this paper, we utilized machine learning and deep learning techniques for analyzing what is going on utilizing countries shared information and for detecting the climate factors that effect on spreading Covid-19, such as humidity, sunny hours, temperature and wind speed for understanding its regular dramatic way of behaving alongside the forecast of future reachability of the COVID-2019 around the world. We utilized data collected and produced by Kaggle and the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science. The dataset has 25 attributes and 9566 objects. Our Experiment consists of two phases. In phase one, we preprocessed dataset for DL model and features were decreased to four features humidity, sunny hours, temperature and wind speed by utilized the Pearson Correlation Coefficient technique (correlation attributes feature selection). In phase two, we utilized the traditional famous six machine learning techniques for numerical datasets, and Dense Net deep learning model to predict and detect the climatic factor that aide to disease outbreak. We validated the model by using confusion matrix (CM) and measured the performance by four different metrics: accuracy, f-measure, recall, and precision.

Utilizing the GOA-RF hybrid model, predicting the CPT-based pile set-up parameters

  • Zhao, Zhilong;Chen, Simin;Zhang, Dengke;Peng, Bin;Li, Xuyang;Zheng, Qian
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.113-127
    • /
    • 2022
  • The undrained shear strength of soil is considered one of the engineering parameters of utmost significance in geotechnical design methods. In-situ experiments like cone penetration tests (CPT) have been used in the last several years to estimate the undrained shear strength depending on the characteristics of the soil. Nevertheless, the majority of these techniques rely on correlation presumptions, which may lead to uneven accuracy. This research's general aim is to extend a new united soft computing model, which is a combination of random forest (RF) with grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) to the pile set-up parameters' better approximation from CPT, based on two different types of data as inputs. Data type 1 contains pile parameters, and data type 2 consists of soil properties. The contribution of this article is that hybrid GOA - RF for the first time, was suggested to forecast the pile set-up parameter from CPT. In order to do this, CPT data and related bore log data were gathered from 70 various locations across Louisiana. With an R2 greater than 0.9098, which denotes the permissible relationship between measured and anticipated values, the results demonstrated that both models perform well in forecasting the set-up parameter. It is comprehensible that, in the training and testing step, the model with data type 2 has finer capability than the model using data type 1, with R2 and RMSE are 0.9272 and 0.0305 for the training step and 0.9182 and 0.0415 for the testing step. All in all, the models' results depict that the A parameter could be forecasted with adequate precision from the CPT data with the usage of hybrid GOA - RF models. However, the RF model with soil features as input parameters results in a finer commentary of pile set-up parameters.

A gene expression programming-based model to predict water inflow into tunnels

  • Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Laith R. Flaih;Abed Alanazi;Abdullah Alqahtani;Shtwai Alsubai;Nabil Ben Kahla;Adil Hussein Mohammed
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.37 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-72
    • /
    • 2024
  • Water ingress poses a common and intricate geological hazard with profound implications for tunnel construction's speed and safety. The project's success hinges significantly on the precision of estimating water inflow during excavation, a critical factor in early-stage decision-making during conception and design. This article introduces an optimized model employing the gene expression programming (GEP) approach to forecast tunnel water inflow. The GEP model was refined by developing an equation that best aligns with predictive outcomes. The equation's outputs were compared with measured data and assessed against practical scenarios to validate its potential applicability in calculating tunnel water input. The optimized GEP model excelled in forecasting tunnel water inflow, outperforming alternative machine learning algorithms like SVR, GPR, DT, and KNN. This positions the GEP model as a leading choice for accurate and superior predictions. A state-of-the-art machine learning-based graphical user interface (GUI) was innovatively crafted for predicting and visualizing tunnel water inflow. This cutting-edge tool leverages ML algorithms, marking a substantial advancement in tunneling prediction technologies, providing accuracy and accessibility in water inflow projections.

New demand forecast for vocational high school graduates in regional strategic industries: Focusing on comparison between Daejeon and Jeonnam (지역전략산업에 따른 특성화고 졸업자 신규수요 예측: 대전과 전남 지역 비교를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Mo;Choi, Su-Jung;Jeon, Yeong-Uk;Oh, Jin-Ju;Ryu, Ji-Eun;Kim, Seon-Geun
    • Journal of vocational education research
    • /
    • v.36 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-75
    • /
    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for policy making for secondary vocational education in each region and transformation in vocational high schools. To achieve this, the regional strategic industries in Daejeon and Jeonnam were selected, new demand for vocational high school graduates was forecasted in each industry and occupation. The results of the study are as follows. First, locational quotient analysis and regional shift-share analysis revealed that Daejon and Jeonnam have different strategic industries. Daejon, unlike Jeonnam strategically develops 'manufacturing food, beverage and tobacco', 'manufacturing timber and paper, printing and copying', 'public service and administration of national defense and social security' and 'manufacturing electrical devices, electronics and precision devices'. Jeonnam has specialized industries distinguished from Daejon's, which are 'manufacturing of machinery transportation equipments and etc', 'manufacturing of non-metallic minerals and metal products', 'electric, gas, steam and water supply systems/industries', 'manufacturing coal and chemical products, refining petroleum', 'mining' and 'agriculture, forestry and fishery'. Second, new demand for vocational high school graduates by occupations and industries showed regional differences(in Daejon and Jeonnam). According the forecast, Daejon will have many workforce demands based on manufacturing industries, on the other hand Jeonnam's focused on service industries. Analysis by occupations was also different, Daejon showed high demands on professional and related workers, while Jeonnam requested many new office and service workers. Third, new workforce demand by occupations in regional strategic industries is big part of overall new workforce demand both in Daejon and Jeonnam. Forth, according to the results of analyzing the new demand for vocational high school graduates in Daejeon and Jeonnam in terms of industry location quotient and change effect, there was high demand in industries with positive total change effects. In terms of location quotient, Daejeon and Jeonnam showed different results.

Forecasting the Precipitation of the Next Day Using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 내일강수 예측)

  • Ha, Ji-Hun;Lee, Yong Hee;Kim, Yong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-98
    • /
    • 2016
  • For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

Verification of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Calculated from the Numerical Model Using a Vehicle-Mounted Lidar System (차량탑재 라이다 시스템을 활용한 수치모델 행성경계층고도 검증)

  • Park, Chang-Geun;Nam, Hyoung-Gu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.36 no.5_1
    • /
    • pp.793-806
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study,for YSU (Yonsei University), MYJ(Mellor-Yamada-Janjic), ACM2 (Asymmetric Convective Model), and BouLac (Bougeault-Lacarrere) PBL schemes, numerical experiments were performed for the case period (June 26-30, 2014). The PBLH calculated by using the backscatter signal produced by the mobile vehicle-mounted lidar system (LIVE) and the PBLH calculated by the prediction of each PBL schemes of WRF were compared and analyzed. In general, the experiments using the non-local schemes showed a higher correlation than the local schemes for lidar observation. The standard deviation of the PBLH difference for daylight hours was small in the order of YSU (≈0.39 km), BouLac (≈0.45 km), ACM2 (≈0.47 km), MYJ (≈0.53 km) PBL schemes. In the RMSE comparison for the case period, the YSU PBL scheme was found to have the highest precision. The meteorological lider mounted on the vehicle is expected to provide guidance for the analysis of the planetary boundary layer in a numerical model under various weather conditions.

High-Precision and 3D GIS Matching and Projection Based User-Friendly Radar Display Technique (3차원 GIS 정합 및 투영에 기반한 사용자 친화적 레이더 자료 표출 기법)

  • Jang, Bong-Joo;Lee, Keon-Haeng;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Lim, Sanghun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.47 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1145-1154
    • /
    • 2014
  • In recent years, as frequency and intensity of severe weather disasters such as flash flood have been increasing, providing accurate and prompt information to the public is very important and needs of user-friendly monitoring/warning system are growing. This paper introduces a method that re-produces radar observations as multimedia contents and applies reproduced data to mesh-up services. In addition, a accurate GIS matching technique to help to track the exact location going on serious atmospheric phenomena is presented. The proposed method create multimedia contents having structures such as two dimensional images, vector graphics or three dimensional volume data by re-producing various radar variables obtained from a weather radar. After then, the multimedia formatted weather radar data are matched with various detailed raster or vector GIS map platform. Results of simulation test with various scenarios indicate that the display system based on the proposed method can support for users to figure out easily and intuitively routes and degrees of risk of severe weather. We expect that this technique can also help for emergency manager to interpret radar observations properly and to forecast meteorological disasters more effectively.