• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.879-889
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• 2014

In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.83-95
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• 2003

This study aims to develop travel time estimation and prediction models on the freeway using measurements from vehicle detectors. In this study, we established a travel time estimation model using traffic volume which is a principle factor of traffic flow changes by reviewing existing travel time estimation techniques. As a result of goodness of fit test. in the normal traffic condition over 70km/h, RMSEP(Root Mean Square Error Proportion) from travel speed is lower than the proposed model, but the proposed model produce more reliable travel times than the other one in the congestion. Therefore in cases of congestion the model uses the method of calculating the delay time from excess link volumes from the in- and outflow and the vehicle speeds from detectors in the traffic situation at a speed of over 70km/h. We also conducted short term prediction of Kalman Filtering to forecast traffic condition and more accurate travel times using statistical model The results of evaluation showed that the lag time occurred between predicted travel time and estimated travel time but the RMSEP values of predicted travel time to observations are as 1ow as that of estimation.

• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.16-22
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• 2010

To maintain the storage quality of agricultural products, temperature uniformity during cold storage, which is affected by fan flow rate and product arrangement, is important. We simulated and validated a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model that can predict both airflow and temperature distribution in a cold storage environment. Computations were based on a commercial code (FLUENT 6.2) and two turbulence models. The standard k-$\varepsilon$ model and the Reynolds stress model (RSM) were chosen to improve the accuracy of CFD prediction. To obtain comparative data, the temperature distribution and velocity vector profiles were measured in a full-scale cold storage facility and in a 1/5 scale model. The agricultural products domain in cold storage was modeled as porous for economical computation. The RSM prediction showed good agreement with experimental data. In addition, temperature distribution was simulated in the cold storage rooms to estimate the uniformity of temperature distribution using the validated model.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.52-67
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• 2008

Recently, frequent occurrence of flash floods caused by climactic change has necessitated prompt and quantitative prediction of precipitation. In particular, the usability of rainfall radar that can carry out real-time observation and prediction of precipitation behavior has increased. Moreover, the use of distributed hydrological model that enables grid level analysis has increased for an efficient use of rainfall radar that provides grid data at 1km resolution. The use of distributed hydrologic model necessitates grid-type spatial data about target basins; to enhance reliability of flood runoff simulation, the use of visible and precise data is necessary. In this paper, physically based $Vflo^{TM}$ model and ModClark, a quasi-distributed hydrological model, were used to carry out flood runoff simulation and comparison of simulation results with data from Imjin River Basin, two-third of which is ungauged. The spatial scope of this study was divided into the whole Imjin River basin area, which includes ungauged area, and Imjin River basin area in South Korea for which relatively accurate and visible data are available. Peak flow and lag time outputs from the two simulations of each region were compared to analyze the impact of uncertainty in topographical parameters and soil parameters on flood runoff simulation and to propose effective methods for flood runoff simulation in ungauged regions.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.375-380
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• 2017

This paper reports the results of an acceleration test to predict the contact-induced failure that could occur at the cylinder-to-hole joint for the fuel rod of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). To incorporate the fuel life of the SFR currently under development at KAERI (around 35,000 h), the acceleration test method of reliability engineering was adopted in this work. A finite element method was used to evaluate the flow-induced vibration frequency and amplitude for the test parameter values. Five specimens were tested. The failure criterion during the life of the SFR fuel was applied. The S-N curve of the HT-9, the material of concern, was used to obtain the acceleration factor. As a result, a test time of 16.5 h was obtained for each specimen. It was concluded that the $B_{0.004}$ life would be guaranteed for the SFR fuel rods with 99％ confidence if no failure was observed at any of the contact surfaces of the five specimens.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.88 no.2
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• pp.240-248
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• 1999

On the basis of data obtained from five forest roads collapsed due to a heavy rainfall of 1995 in Chunchon, Kangwon-do, this study was carried out to evaluate and predict the fill slope failure of forest roads with four factors of forest road structure and those of location condition by using Quantification theory(II). The results were summarized as follows ; In the structure factors of forest road, the fill slope failure was mainly occurred in longitudinal gradients less than $2^{\circ}$ or more than $4^{\circ}$, distance of surface-flow longer than 80m, fill slope length greater than 6m, and fill slope gradients steeper than $35^{\circ}$. In the factors of location condition, the failure was mainly occurred in ridge portion of road position, weathered rock and soft rock of constituent material, slope gradients in the range from $35^{\circ}$ to $45^{\circ}$, and concave and convex of longitudinal slope forms. The priority order for factors influencing on fill slope failure was ranked by fill slope length, constituent material, road position, and so on. And the rate of correct discrimination by analysis of fill slope failure was estimated at the high prediction of 86.5%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.265-276
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• 1995

In this Paper, the Performance of the convolution method has been investigated as an effort to develop a simple system of predicting wind-driven surface current on a real time basis. In this approach wind stress is assumed to be spatially uniform and the effect of atmospheric pressure is neglected. The discrete convolution weights are determined in advance at each point using a linear three-dimensional Galerkin model with linear shape functions(Galerkin-FEM model). Four directions of wind stress(e.g. NE, SW, NW, SE) with unit magnitude are imposed in the model calculation for the construction of data base for convolution weights. Given the time history of wind stress, it is then possible to predict with-driven currents promptly using the convolution product of finite length. An unsteady wind stress of arbitrary form can be approximated by a series of wind pulses with magnitude of 6 hour averaged value. A total of 12 pulses are involved in the convolution product To examine the accuracy of the convolution method a series of numerical experiments has been carried out in the idealized basin representing the scale of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The wind stress imposed varies sinusoidally in time. It was found that the predicted surface currents and elevation fields were in good agreement with the results computed by the direct integration of the Galerkin model. A model with grid 1/8$^{\circ}$ in latitude, l/6$^{\circ}$ in longitude was established which covers the entire region of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The numerical prediction in terms of the convolution product has been carried out with particular attention on the formation of upwind flow in the middle of the Yellow Sea by northerly wind.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.21-28
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• 2012

The objective of this study is to evaluate the prediction accuracy of FDS(Fire Dynamic Simulator) for the thermal and chemical characteristics of under-ventilated fire with unsteady fire growth in a semi-closed compartment. To this end, a standard doorway width of the full-scale ISO 9705 room was modified to 0.1 m and the flow rate of heptane fuel was increased linearly with time (until maximum 2.0 MW based on ideal heat release rate) using a spray nozzle located at the center of enclosure. To verify the capability of FDS, the predicted results were compared with a previous experimental data under the identical fire conditions. It was observed that with an appropriate grid system, the numerically predicted temperature and heat flux inside the compartment showed reasonable agreement with the experimental data. On the other hand, there were considerable limitations to predict accurately the unsteady behaviors of CO and $CO_2$ concentration under the condition of continuous fire growth. These results leaded to a discrepancy between the present evaluation of FDS and the previous evaluation conducted for steady-state under-ventilated fires. It was important to note that the prediction of transient CO production characteristics using FDS was approached carefully for the under-ventilated fire in a semi-closed compartment.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.112-120
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• 2012

A numerical model considering the internal vaporization and the creep effect, in the form of a analytical program, for tracing the behavior of high strength concrete(HSC) members exposed to fire is presented. The two stages, i.e., spalling procedure and fire resistance time, associated with the thermal, moisture flow, creep and structural analysis, for the prediction of fire resistance behavior are explained. The use of the analytical program for tracing the response of HSC member from the initial pre-loading stage to collapse, due to fire, is demonstrated. Moisture evaporates, when concrete is exposed to fire, not only at concrete surface but also at inside the concrete to adjust the equilibrium and transfer properties of moisture. Finite element method is employed to facilitate the moisture diffusion analysis for any position of member, so that the prediction method of the moisture distribution inside the concrete members at fire is developed. The validity of the numerical model used in this program is established by comparing the predictions from this program with results from others fire resistance tests. The analytical program can be used to predict the fire resistance of HSC members for any value of the significant parameters, such as load, sectional dimensions, member length, and concrete strength.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.13-21
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• 2016

Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.