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A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea (일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong-Ik;Yun, Dork-Ro;Shin, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

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Effect of reaction temperature on the particle size and crystal shape of precipitated calcium carbonate (반응온도가 침강성탄산칼슘의 입도 및 형상에 미치는 영향)

  • 송영준;박찬훈;조동성
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of temperature on the formation of CaCO, polymorphs(i.e.,calcite, aragonite, vaterite) and on the crystal shape of CaCO,.The reaction systems were rnvestigated at the temperature range of 2.0%-85.3r, at the fixed cmditions ofconcentration and pressure, 2X10-' M, atomospheric pressure, respectively.The reaction systems studied include a Ca(HCO.,),-Air bubble, O Ca(OH)s-CO,, @ Ca(OH),-H,CO, ,Ca(OH1,-Na>CO,, O Ca(OH),-K,CO,, @ Ca(OH),-(NH,),CO,, D CaC1,-Na,CO,, CaC1,-K3C03, 8 CaC1,-(NH,,),CO,, 0 Ca(N0,X-Na,CO,, 03 Ca(N0,X-QCO,. 0 Ca(NO,),-(NH,XCO,. The results obtained are summarizedas follows:Calcite is formed at the temperature range of 2t-80"C and the highest calcite yield was obtained at 30%.Aragonite begins to be formed at the temperature range of 41.0%-53.0%. and the higher temperature is thehigher yield is obtained. pH of the reaction system affect the yield of aragonite, and the yield reaches the highestpercentage at the pH range of 10.0-11.0, and at the conditions of pH 12.3 or over, aragonite is scarcely formed.Vaterlle is fnrmed at the temperature range of 40.0% or less, and transites utterly to calcite within 10-60mmutes in the case of bemg residenced in mother liqmd which C1 is not contained, and within 140hours inthe case of containing CI-.s in the case of containing CI-.

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A Study on the Restructuration of Norm System in the Field of ICT for the Smart Media (Smart미디어시대 정보통신·미디어(ICT) 분야 규범체계의 재구조화에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.44
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    • pp.33-62
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the consolidation of ICT basic legislation and ICT special legislation concerning "Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning" and "Korea Communications Commission" which came on the back of governmental reorganization in recent years is discussed in the theoretical and practical aspect. Development of "data communication technology" innovatively changed the method of livelihood of mankind, the emergence of network under global dimension provided financial social benefit and posed a challenge and a threat at the same time. Form digital revolution human kind can expect to receive many important blessings. Nevertheless, there are many advantages of development of technology by digital revolution, cyberspace like online media, internet etc. has realistically many problems that must be solved. To maximum positive aspects like the expansion of freedom of expression and creating plan of economy by the advance of transmission technology is needed. And to minimize side effects of informatization is required more. The First, Special Act on ICT has an adaptation in normative standardization to be fit in media convergence beyond convergence of broadcasting and telecommunications. Henceforth, there must be established a legal basis for the achievement of protection of economic evolution and freedom of speech in digital media, information, communication technology and content development. The second, the government action is to accomplish economic development and freedom of information in structural aspect of norm. Therefore minimizing normative problem by reorganization of organization remains clearly unresolved in politics. The third, Special Act on ICT must be basic law covering info-communications field, pay telecommunication and media contents field. The forth, from a technical point of view, net neutrality, conflict of interest for digital content and so on can be fixed easily. Special Act on ICT must not only pursuit of development of industry. Special Act on ICT and pursuit of enhancing quality of life of people and preparing program to promote democratization. From now on, we need to make powerful nation of information& communications technology and in information human rights protection field got to be one step ahead of others with reference to appear all the various aspects must be brought together in the discussion of legislation process of Special Act on ICT.

Longitudinal Relationship between Public Care and Family Care: Focusing on Home Care for Older People in South Korea (공적돌봄과 가족돌봄의 종단적 관계: 재가 노인 돌봄을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seungho;Shin, Yumi
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.1035-1055
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between public care and family care. Public care for older adults began in 2008 with the implementation of the Long-Term Care insurance in South Korea. Although the expansion of public care has the purpose of reducing the care burden for the family, it is not easy to say whether the developments of public care system reduce the amount of family care for older family members. Theoretically, public care and family care are expected to have various relationships depending on the degree of the role and function(substitution, hierarchical compensatory, task specific, supplementation, complementarity). And literatures have showed inconsistent results depending on the country, data, and methods. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between two care types focusing on home care services for older persons. Analyses were based on data from the second(2008) to sixth(2016) waves of Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA). To investigate elderly care dynamics in the households, we pooled the data for four changes between two periods(2008-2010, 2010-2012, 2012-2014, and 2014-2016). This study used an analytic sample of 262 older adults, who are aged 55 over and experienced public care at least one point of time. We used Fixed-Effects(FE) model to analyze the differences within the same individuals under the condition that time-invariant unobserved factors are controlled. This study distinguished the cases of entry into public care and other cases of exiting public care. The results showed that older people who are dependent on public care are less dependent on family care than before. In both entry and exit groups, negative relations were maintained, but in the entering stage of public care, the degree of negative relations was relatively small, whereas in the stage of maintaining or departing from public care, relatively negative relations were strong. At the beginning periods, even though public care increased, family care did not decrease significantly. On the other hand, at the time of ending public care and relying on family care, family care increased significantly. The results of this study show that the relationship between public care and family care is close to hierarchical compensatory model and varies according to the stage of caring transition. Also, it was found that the cases of transition from public care to family care have the biggest burden of elderly care than other groups.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Cu-based Catalysts for Oxygen Removal in Nitrogen Purification System (질소 정제 시스템의 산소 제거용 구리계 촉매 연구)

  • Oh, Seung Kyo;Seong, Minjun;Jeon, Jong-Ki
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2021
  • Since the active matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) encapsulation process is very vulnerable to moisture and oxygen, high-purity nitrogen with minimal moisture and oxygen must be used. In this study, a copper-based catalyst used to remove oxygen from nitrogen in the AMOLED encapsulation process was optimized. Two-component and three-component catalysts composed of CuO, Al2O3, or ZnO were prepared through a co-precipitation method. The prepared catalysts were characterized by using BET, XRD, TPR, and XRF analysis. In order to verify the oxygen removal performance of the catalyst, several catalytic reactions were conducted in a fixed bed reactor, and the corresponding oxygen contents were measured through an oxygen analyzer. In addition, reusability of the catalysts was proven through repetitive regeneration. The properties and oxygen removal capacity of the catalysts prepared with CuO and Al2O3 ratios of 6 : 4, 7 : 3, and 8 : 2 were compared. The number of active sites of the catalyst with a ratio of CuO and Al2O3 of 8 : 2 was the highest among the 2-component catalysts. Moreover, the reducibility of the catalyst with a ratio of CuO and Al2O3 of 8 : 2 was the best as it had the highest CuO dispersion. As a result, the oxygen removal ability of the catalyst with a ratio of CuO and Al2O3 of 8 : 2 was the best among the 2-component catalysts. The best oxygen removal capacity was obtained when 2wt% of ZnO was added to the sub-optimized catalyst (i.e., CuO : Al2O3 = 8 : 2) probably due to its outstanding reducibility. Furthermore, the optimized catalyst kept its performance during a couple of regeneration tests.

Numerical Study on the Effect of the Arrangement Type of Rotor Sail on Lift Formation (로터세일의 배열 형태가 양력 형성에 미치는 영향에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Jung-Eun Kim;Dae-Hwan Cho;Chang-Yong Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.197-206
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the international community, including the International Maritime Organization (IMO), has strengthened regulations on air pollution emissions of ships, and eco-friendly ships are actively being developed to reduce exhaust gas emissions. Among them, rotor sail (RS), a wind-assisted ship propulsion system, is attracting attention again. RS is a cylindrical device installed on the ship deck, that generates hydrodynamic lift using a magnus effect. This is a next generation eco-friendly auxiliary propulsion technology, and Enercon company, which developed RS-applied ships, announced that fuel savings of more than 30% are possible. In this study, optimal installation conditions such as RS spacing and arrangement type were selected when multiple RSs were installed on ships. AR=5.1, SR=1.0, and De/D was fixed at 2.0 according to the RS arrangement, and the wind direction was considered only for the unidirectional +y-axis. Regarding arrangement conditions, five conditions were set at 3D intervals in the +x-axis direction from 3D to 15D and five conditions in the +y-axis direction from 5D to 25D. CL, CD and aerodynamic efficiency (CL/CD) were compared according to the square(□) and diamond(◇) shape arrangements. Consequently, the effect of RS on the longitudinal distance was not significantly different. However, in the case of RS flow characteristics according to the transverse distance, the interaction effect of RS was the greatest when the two RSs almost matched the wind direction. In the case of the RS flow characteristics according to the arrangement, notably, when the wind blew in the forward (0°) direction, the diamond (◇) arrangement was least affected by the backward flow between RSs.

Long-Term Survival Analysis of Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty (슬관절 부분 치환술의 장기 생존 분석)

  • Park, Cheol Hee;Lee, Ho Jin;Son, Hyuck Sung;Bae, Dae Kyung;Song, Sang Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.427-434
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study evaluated the long term clinical and radiographic results and the survival rates of unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). In addition, the factors affecting the survival of the procedure were analyzed and the survival curve was compared according to the affecting factors. Materials and Methods: Ninety-nine cases of UKA performed between December 1982 and January 1996 were involved: 10 cases with Modular II, 44 cases with Microloc, and 45 cases with Allegretto prostheses. The mean follow-up period was 16.5 years. Clinically, the hospital for special surgery (HSS) scoring system and the range of motion (ROM) were evaluated. Radiographically, the femorotibial angle (FTA) was measured. The survival rate was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the factors affecting the survival according to age, sex, body mass index, preoperative diagnosis, and type of implant. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared according to the factors affecting the survival of UKA. Results: The overall average HSS score and ROM was 57.7 and 134.3° preoperatively, 92.7 and 138.4° at 1 year postoperatively, and 79.1 and 138.4° at the last follow-up (p<0.001, respectively). The overall average FTA was varus 0.8° preoperatively, valgus 4.1° at postoperative 2 weeks, and valgus 3.0° at the last follow-up. The overall 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year survival rates were 91.8%, 82.9%, 71.0%, and 67.0%, respectively. The factors affecting the survival were the age and type of implant. The risk of the failure decreased with age (hazard ratio=0.933). The Microloc group was more hazardous than the other prostheses (hazard ratio=0.202, 0.430, respectively). The survival curve in the patients below 60 years of age was significantly lower than those of the patients over 60 years of age (p=0.003); the survival curve of the Microloc group was lower compared to the Modular II and Allegretto groups (p=0.025). Conclusion: The long-term clinical and radiographic results and survival of UKA using old fixed bearing prostheses were satisfactory. The selection of appropriate patient and prosthesis will be important for the long term survival of the UKA procedure.

Arthroscopically-Assisted Reduction and Internal Fixation of Intra-Articular Fractures of the Lateral Tibial Plateau (관절면을 침범한 경골 외측 고평부 골절에 대한 관절경을 이용한 정복 및 내고정술)

  • Kim, Juhan;Kim, Dong Hwi;Lim, Jae-Hwan;Jang, Hyunwoong;Kim, Young Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.227-236
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To evaluate the results of tibial lateral plateau fractures using arthroscopic-assisted reduction and internal fixation without cortical window or bone grafts. Materials and Methods: From March 2009 to March 2017, 27 patients with Schatzker type II tibial plateau fractures with articular depression and displacement over 5 mm on a computed tomography (CT) scan, who were treated with arthroscopic reduction and internal fixation and followed-up for at least 18 months, were enrolled in this study. Under arthroscopic guidance, the depressed fracture fragment was reduced using a freer and fixed with 5.0 or 6.5 mm cannulated screws through the inframeniscal portal without a cortical window or bone graft. The clinical and radiological results were evaluated using a Rasmussen system. Second look arthroscopy was performed in thirteen patients during the implant removal operation. Results: All fractures healed completely with a mean union time of 8.7 weeks (range from 8 to 12 weeks). Twenty four patients had good to excellent clinical results and 25 patients had good to excellent radiological results according to the Rasmussen classification. A well-healed articular surface with fibrocartilage was also found in 13 cases with second look arthroscopy. The 8 cases on CT scan at outpatient department follow-up showed bone union without bone grafting. Conclusion: Arthroscopic-assisted fixation of tibial lateral plateau fractures is a useful method without a cortical window or bone graft that produces good clinical results.

Report about First Repeated Sectional Measurements of Water Property in the East Sea using Underwater Glider (수중글라이더를 활용한 동해 최초 연속 물성 단면 관측 보고)

  • GYUCHANG LIM;JONGJIN PARK
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.56-76
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    • 2024
  • We for the first time made a successful longest continuous sectional observation in the East Sea by an underwater glider during 95 days from September 18 to December 21 2020 in the Korea along the 106 Line (129.1 °E ~ 131.5 °E at 37.9 °N) of the regular shipboard measurements by the National Institute of Fishery Science (NIFS) and obtained twelve hydrographic sections with high spatiotemporal resolution. The glider was deployed at 129.1 °E in September 18 and conducted 88-days flight from September 19 to December 15 2020, yielding twelve hydrographic sections, and then recovered at 129.2 °E in December 21 after the last 6 days virtual mooring operation. During the total traveled distance of 2550 km, the estimated deviation from the predetermined zonal path had an average RMS distance of 262 m. Based on these high-resolution long-term glider measurements, we conducted a comparative study with the bi-monthly NIFS measurements in terms of spatial and temporal resolutions, and found distinguished features. One is that spatial features of sub-mesoscale such as sub-mesoscale frontal structure and intensified thermocline were detected only in the glider measurements, mainly due to glider's high spatial resolution. The other is the detection of intramonthly variations from the weekly time series of temperature and salinity, which were extracted from glider's continuous sections. Lastly, there were deviations and bias in measurements from both platforms. We argued these deviations in terms of the time scale of variation, the spatial scale of fixed-point observation, and the calibration status of CTD devices of both platforms.