• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire risk prediction

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A Study on the Prediction of City Gas Accident Damage by Consequence Analysis (Consequence Analysis를 통한 도시가스 사고 피해 예측에 관한 연구)

  • An, Jung-sik;Kim, Jihye;Yu, Jihoon;Kim, Jongkyoung;Kang, Subi;Cho, Donghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.36-40
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the biggest topic in the industry is the area of industrial safety and health management. Since city gas is flammable gas and has a high risk of fire and explosion, much effort is required to prevent serious industrial and citizenry disasters. As part of city gas safety management, this study attempted to quantitatively predict the scope and degree of damage in the event of an explosion accident caused by city gas leakage through the Consequence Analysis. As a result, there was a difference in the accident result value according to various leakage conditions such as pressure and weather conditions. Through this study, a scenario of explosion due to city gas leakage will be prepared when performing city gas safety management work and used to prepare more effective accident prevention and emergency action plans.

MARYBLYT Study for Potential Spread and Prediction of Future Infection Risk of Fire Blight on Blossom of Singo Pear in Korea (우리나라 신고배 화상병 꽃감염 확산 가능성 및 미래 감염위험 예측을 위한 MARYBLYT 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Sun;Yun, Sung-Chul
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.182-192
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    • 2018
  • Since fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) firstly broke out at mid-Korea in 2015, it is necessary to investigate potential spread of the invasive pathogen. To speculate environmental factors of fireblight epidemic based on disease triangle, a fire blight predicting program, MARYBLYT, was run with the measured meteorological data in 2014-2017 and the projecting future data under RCP8.5 scenario for 2020-2100. After calculating blossom period of Singo pear from phenology, MARYBLYT was run for blossom blight during the blossom period. MARYBLYT warned "Infection" blossom blight in 2014-15 at Anseong and Cheonan as well as Pyungtak and Asan. In addition, it warned "Infection" in 2016-17 at Naju. More than 80% of Korean areas were covered "Infection" or "High", therefore Korea was suitable for fire blight recently. Blossom blight for 2020-2100 was predicted to be highly fluctuate depending on the year. For 80 years of the future, 20 years were serious with "Infection" covered more than 50% of areas in Korea, whereas 8 years were not serious covered less than 10%. By comparisons between 50% and 10% of the year, temperature and amount of precipitation were significantly different. The results of this study are informative for policy makers to manage the alien pathogen.

A Study on the Development of Explosion Proof ESD Detector and Intrinsic Safety Characteristics Analysis (방폭구조 ESD Detector 개발 및 본질안전 특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Byeon, Junghwan;Choi, Sang-won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • Article 325 (Prevention of Fire Explosion due to Electrostatic) of the Rule for Occupational Safety and Health Standard specifies that in order to prevent the risk of disasters caused by static electricity, fire, explosion and static electricity in the production process, However, in order to do this, it is absolutely necessary to use a pre-detection technology and a detector for antistatic discharge prediction, which is a precautionary measure by static electricity in a fire / explosion hazard place, but in Korea, And there is no technical standard for the application of the technology of the explosion proof structure of the related equipment. Research methods include domestic and overseas electrostatic discharge detection technology and literature investigation of related equipment explosion proofing technology, domestic and foreign electrostatic discharge detection device production and use situation investigation, advanced foreign technology data analysis and benchmarking. In particular, we sought to verify the results of empirical experiments using electrostatic discharge detection technology through sample purchase and analysis of related major products, development of optimization technology through prototype production, evaluation, and supplementation, and expert knowledge through expert consultation. The results of this study were developed and fabricated two prototypes of electrostatic discharge detector based on the technology / standard related to electrostatic discharge detection technology in Korea and abroad through development of electrostatic discharge detection technology and development and production of detector. In addition, based on the development of electrostatic discharge detection technology, we developed an intrinsic safety explosion proof ib class explosion proof technology applicable to the process of using and handling flammable gas and flammable liquid vapor and combustible dust. In the case of the over voltage and minimum voltage are supplied to the explosion-proof structure ESD detector, check the state of the circuit and the transient and transient currents generated by the coil and capacitor elements during the input and standby of the signal pulse voltage. Explosion-proof equipment-Part 11: Intrinsically safe explosion proof structure The comparative evaluation with the reference curve in Annex A of "i" confirms that the characteristics of the intrinsically safe explosion protection structure are met.

Risk Ranking Analysis for the City-Gas Pipelines in the Underground Laying Facilities (지하매설물 중 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 위험성 서열화 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2004
  • In this article, we are to suggest the hazard-assessing method for the underground pipelines, and find out the pipeline-maintenance schemes of high efficiency in cost. Three kinds of methods are applied in order to refer to the approaching methods of listing the hazards for the underground pipelines: the first is RBI(Risk Based Inspection), which firstly assess the effect of the neighboring population, the dimension, thickness of pipe, and working time. It enables us to estimate quantitatively the risk exposure. The second is the scoring system which is based on the environmental factors of the buried pipelines. Last we quantify the frequency of the releases using the present THOMAS' theory. In this work, as a result of assessing the hazard of it using SPC scheme, the hazard score related to how the gas pipelines erodes indicate the numbers from 30 to 70, which means that the assessing criteria define well the relative hazards of actual pipelines. Therefore. even if one pipeline region is relatively low score, it can have the high frequency of leakage due to its longer length. The acceptable limit of the release frequency of pipeline shows 2.50E-2 to 1.00E-l/yr, from which we must take the appropriate actions to have the consequence to be less than the acceptable region. The prediction of total frequency using regression analysis shows the limit operating time of pipeline is the range of 11 to 13 years, which is well consistent with that of the actual pipeline. Concludingly, the hazard-listing scheme suggested in this research will be very effectively applied to maintaining the underground pipelines.

A simplified method for estimating the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete frames

  • Jiang, Rui;Jiang, Liqiang;Hu, Yi;Ye, Jihong;Zhou, Lingyu
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.74 no.6
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 2020
  • The fundamental period is an important parameter for seismic design and seismic risk assessment of building structures. In this paper, a simplified theoretical method to predict the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame is developed based on the basic theory of engineering mechanics. The different configurations of the RC frame as well as masonry walls were taken into account in the developed method. The fundamental period of the infilled structure is calculated according to the integration of the lateral stiffness of the RC frame and masonry walls along the height. A correction coefficient is considered to control the error for the period estimation, and it is determined according to the multiple linear regression analysis. The corrected formula is verified by shaking table tests on two masonry infilled RC frame models, and the errors between the estimated and test period are 2.3% and 23.2%. Finally, a probability-based method is proposed for the corrected formula, and it allows the structural engineers to select an appropriate fundamental period with a certain safety redundancy. The proposed method can be quickly and flexibly used for prediction, and it can be hand-calculated and easily understood. Thus it would be a good choice in determining the fundamental period of RC frames infilled with masonry wall structures in engineering practice instead of the existing methods.

A Study on the prediction of SOH estimation of waste lithium-ion batteries based on SVM model (서포트 벡터 머신 기반 폐리튬이온전지의 건전성(SOH)추정 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KIM SANGBUM;KIM KYUHA;LEE SANGHYUN
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.727-730
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    • 2023
  • The operation of electric automatic windows is used in harsh environments, and the energy density decreases as charging and discharging are repeated, and as soundness deteriorates due to damage to the internal separator, the vehicle's mileage decreases and the charging speed slows down, so about 5 to 10 Batteries that have been used for about a year are classified as waste batteries, and for this reason, as the risk of battery fire and explosion increases, it is essential to diagnose batteries and estimate SOH. Estimation of current battery SOH is a very important content, and it evaluates the state of the battery by measuring the time, temperature, and voltage required while repeatedly charging and discharging the battery. There are disadvantages. In this paper, measurement of discharge capacity (C-rate) using a waste battery of a Tesla car in order to predict SOH estimation of a lithium-ion battery. A Support Vector Machine (SVM), one of the machine models, was applied using the data measured from the waste battery.

Numerical Simulation based on SPH of Bullet Impact for Fuel Cell Group of Rotorcraft (입자법 기반 항공기용 연료셀 그룹 피탄 수치모사)

  • Kim, Hyun Gi;Kim, Sung Chan
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2014
  • There is a big risk of bullet impact because military rotorcraft is run in the battle environment. Due to the bullet impact, the rapid increase of the internal pressure can cause the internal explosion or fire of fuel cell. It can be a deadly damage on the survivability of crews. Then, fuel cell of military rotorcraft should be designed taking into account the extreme situation. As the design factor of fuel cell, the internal fluid pressure, structural stress and bullet kinetic energy can be considered. The verification test by real object is the best way to obtain these design data. But, it is a big burden due to huge cost and long-term preparation efforts and the failure of verification test can result in serious delay of a entire development plan. Thus, at the early design stage, the various numerical simulations test is needed to reduce the risk of trial-and-error together with prediction of the design data. In the present study, the bullet impact numerical simulation based on SPH(smoothed particle hydrodynamic) is conducted with the commercial package, LS-DYNA. Then, the resulting equivalent stress, internal pressure and bullet's kinetic energy are evaluated in detail to examine the possibility to obtain the configuration design data of the fuel cell.

Explosion Likelihood Investigation of Facility Using CVD Equipment Using SEMI S6 (SEMI S6를 적용한 CVD 설비의 폭발분위기 조성 가능성 분석)

  • Mi Jeong Lee;Dae Won Seo;Seong Hee Lee;Dong Geon Lee;Se Jong Bae;Jong-Bae Baek
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.62-67
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    • 2023
  • Due to the prolonged impact of COVID-19, the demand for Information Technology (IT) products is increasing, and their production facilities are expanded. Consequently, the use of harmful and dangerous chemicals are increased, the risk of fire(s) and explosion(s) is also elevated. In order to mitigate these risks, the government sets standards, such as KS C IEC 60079-10-1, and manages explosion-prone hazardous facilities where flammable substances are manufactured, used, and handled. However, using the standards of KS, it is difficult to predict the actual possibility of an explosion in a facility, because ventilation (an important factor) is not considered when setting up a hazardous work environment. In this study, the SEMI S6, Tracer Gas Test was applied to the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) facility, a major part of the display industry, to evaluate ventilation performance and to confirm the possibility of creating a less explosive environment. Based on the results, it was confirmed that the ventilation performance in the assumed scenarios met the standards stipulated in SEMI S6, along with supporting the possibility of creating a less explosive working condition. Therefore, it is recommended to use the prediction tool using engineering techniques, as well as KS standards, in such hazardous environments to prevent accidents and/or reduce economic burden following accidents.

Influence of Mixture Non-uniformity on Methane Explosion Characteristics in a Horizontal Duct (수평 배관의 메탄 폭발특성에 있어서 불균일성 혼합기의 영향)

  • Ou-Sup Han;Yi-Rac Choi;HyeongHk Kim;JinHo Lim
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2024
  • Fuel gases such as methane and propane are used in explosion hazardous area of domestic plants and can form non-uniform mixtures with the influence of process conditions due to leakage. The fire-explosion risk assessment using literature data measured under uniform mixtures, damage prediction can be obtained the different results from actual explosion accidents by gas leaks. An explosion characteristics such as explosion pressure and flame velocity of non-uniform gas mixtures with concentration change similar to that of facility leak were examined. The experiments were conducted in a closed 0.82 m long stainless steel duct with observation recorded by color high speed camera and piezo pressure sensor. Also we proposed the quantification method of non-uniform mixtures from a regression analysis model on the change of concentration difference with time in explosion duct. For the non-uniform condition of this study, the area of flame surface enlarged with increasing the concentration non-uniform in the flame propagation of methane and was similar to the wrinkled flame structure existing in a turbulent flame. The time to peak pressure of methane decreased as the non-uniform increased and the explosion pressure increased with increasing the non-uniform. The ranges of KG (Deflagration index) of methane with the concentration non-uniform were 1.30 to 1.58 [MPa·m/s] and the increase rate of KG was 17.7% in methane with changing from uniform to non-uniform.

Prediction of Damages and Evacuation Strategies for Gas Leaks from Chlorine Transport Vehicles (염소 운송차량 가스누출시 피해예측 및 대피방안)

  • Yang, Yong-Ho;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to predict and reduce potential damage caused by chlorine gas leaks, a hazardous material, when vehicles transporting it overturn due to accidents or other incidents. The goal is to forecast the anticipated damages caused by chlorine toxicity levels (ppm) and to design effective response strategies for mitigating them. To predict potential damages, we conducted quantitative assessments using the ALOHA program to calculate the toxic effects (ppm) and damage distances resulting from chlorine leaks, taking into account potential negligence of drivers during transportation. The extent of damage from toxic gas leaks is influenced by various factors, including the amount of the leaked hazardous material and the meteorological conditions at the time of the leak. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of damage distances was conducted by examining various scenarios that involved variations in the amount of leakage and weather conditions. Under intermediate conditions (leakage quantity: 5 tons, wind speed: 3 m/s, atmospheric stability: D), the estimated distance for exceeding the AEGL-2 level of 2 ppm was calculated to be 9 km. This concentration poses a high risk of respiratory disturbance and potential human casualties, comparable to the toxicity of hydrogen chloride. In particular, leaks in urban areas can lead to significant loss of life. In the event of a leakage incident, we proposed a plan to minimize damage by implementing appropriate response strategies based on the location and amount of the leak when an accident occurs.