• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire risk prediction

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An Predictive System for urban gas leakage based on Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 도시가스 누출량 예측 모니터링 시스템)

  • Ahn, Jeong-mi;Kim, Gyeong-Yeong;Kim, Dong-Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2021.07a
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    • pp.41-44
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose a monitoring system that can monitor gas leakage concentrations in real time and forecast the amount of gas leaked after one minute. When gas leaks happen, they typically lead to accidents such as poisoning, explosion, and fire, so a monitoring system is needed to reduce such occurrences. Previous research has mainly been focused on analyzing explosion characteristics based on gas types, or on warning systems that sound an alarm when a gas leak occurs in industrial areas. However, there are no studies on creating systems that utilize specific gas explosion characteristic analysis or empirical urban gas data. This research establishes a deep learning model that predicts the gas explosion risk level over time, based on the gas data collected in real time. In order to determine the relative risk level of a gas leak, the gas risk level was divided into five levels based on the lower explosion limit. The monitoring platform displays the current risk level, the predicted risk level, and the amount of gas leaked. It is expected that the development of this system will become a starting point for a monitoring system that can be deployed in urban areas.

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Analysis and Risk Prediction of Electrical Accidents Due to Climate Change (기후환경 변화에 따른 전기재해 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Wan-Seok;Kim, Young-Hun;Kim, Jaehyuck;Oh, Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.603-610
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    • 2018
  • The development of industry and the increase in the use of fossil fuels have accelerated the process of global warming and climate change, resulting in more frequent and intense natural disasters than ever before. Since electricity facilities are often installed outdoors, they are heavily influenced by natural disasters and the number of related accidents is increasing. In this paper, we analyzed the statistical status of domestic electrical fires, electric shock accidents, and electrical equipment accidents and hence analyzed the risk associated with climate change. Through the analysis of the electrical accidental data in connection with the various regional (metropolitan) climatic conditions (temperature, humidity), the risk rating and charts for each region and each equipment were produced. Based on this analysis, a basic electric risk prediction model is presented and a method of displaying an electric hazard prediction map for each region and each type of electric facilities through a website or smart phone app was developed using the proposed analysis data. In addition, efforts should be made to increase the durability of the electrical equipment and improve the resistance standards to prevent future disasters.

Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Hyo-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.

Sensitivity Analysis of Meteorology-based Wildfire Risk Indices and Satellite-based Surface Dryness Indices against Wildfire Cases in South Korea (기상기반 산불위험지수와 위성기반 지면건조지수의 우리나라 산불발생에 대한 민감도분석)

  • Kong, Inhak;Kim, Kwangjin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2017
  • There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

Study on Prediction System Construction of Fire.Explosion Accident by NG & LPG among Domestic Gas Accidents (국내 가스 사고사례 중 NG 및 LPG의 가스 화재.폭발사고 예측시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Ko Jae-Sun;Kim Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.1 s.30
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    • pp.48-55
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    • 2006
  • In order to establish the comprehensively, quantitatively predictable program to the fire and explosion accidents in the urban gas system, and to set up domestic criteria of societal risk, the collected urban gas accident data have been deeply analyzed. The Poisson probability distribution functions with t=5 for the database of the gas accidents in recent 11 year shows that 'careless work-explosion-pipeline' item has the lowest frequency, whereas 'joint loosening & erosion-release-pipeline' item has the highest frequency. And thus the proper counteractions must be carried out. The further works requires setting up successive database on the fire and explosion accidents systematically to obtain reliable analyses.

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Development of Digital Twin and Intelligent Monorail Robot for Road Tunnel Smart Management (도로 터널 스마트관리를 위한 디지털 트윈 및 지능형 레일 로봇 개발)

  • Youngwoo Sohn;Jaehong Park;Eung-Ug Kim;Young Sik Joung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study was to create intelligent rail robots that are optimized for facility management and implement digital twin systems for smart road tunnel management. An autonomous surveillance system is formed by combining the sensing platform consisting of railing robots, fixed cameras and environmental detection sensors with the digital twin data platform technology for tunnel monitoring and early fire suppression. In order to develop mobile rail robots for fire extinguishing, we also designed and manufactured robots for extinguishing & monitoring and fire extinguishing devices, and then we examined the optimization of all parts. Our next step was to build a digital twin for road tunnel management by developing continuous image display system and implementing 3D modeling. After constructing prototypes, we attempted simulations by configuring abnormal symptom scenarios, such as vehicles fires. This study's proposal proposes high-accuracy risk prediction services that will enable intelligent management of risks in the tunnel with early response at each stage, using the data collected from the intelligent rail robots and digital twin systems.

Large Eddy Simulation for the Prediction of Unsteady Dispersion Behavior of Hydrogen Fluoride (불산의 비정상 확산거동 예측을 위한 대와동모사)

  • Ko, M.W.;Oh, Chang Bo;Han, Y.S.;Choi, B.I.;Do, K.H.;Kim, M.B.;Kim, T.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2015
  • A Large Eddy Simulation(LES) was performed for the prediction of unsteady dispersion behavior of hydrogen fluoride (HF). The HF leakage accident occurred at the Gumi fourth industrial complex was numerically investigated using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) based on the LES. The accident area was modeled three-dimensionally and time-varying boundary conditions for wind were adopted in the simulation for considering the realistic accident conditions. The Message Passing Interface (MPI) parallel computation technique was used to reduce the computational time. As a result, it was found that the present LES simulation could predict the unsteady dispersion features of HF near the accident area effectively. The dispersion behaviors of the leaked HF was much affected by the unsteady wind direction. The LES could predict the time variation of the HF concentration reasonably and give an useful information for the risk analysis while the prediction with the time-averaging concept of HF concentration had a limitation for the amount of HF concentration at specific location point. It was identified that the LES is very useful to predict the dispersion characteristics of hazardous chemicals.

A Study on Risk Assessment Method for Earthquake-Induced Landslides (지진에 의한 산사태 위험도 평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Junpyo;Eu, Song;Lee, Kihwan;Lee, Changwoo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.694-709
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment was conducted to provide basic data for efficient and preemptive damage prevention by selecting the erosion control work before the earthquake and the prediction and restoration priorities of the damaged area after the earthquake. Method: The study analyzed the previous studies abroad to examine the evaluation methodology and to derive the evaluation factors, and examine the utilization of the landslide hazard map currently used in Korea. In addition, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard map was also established on a pilot basis based on the fault zone and epicenter of Pohang using seismic attenuation. Result: The earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment study showed that China ranked 44%, Italy 16%, the U.S. 15%, Japan 10%, and Taiwan 8%. As for the evaluation method, the statistical model was the most common at 59%, and the physical model was found at 23%. The factors frequently used in the statistical model were altitude, distance from the fault, gradient, slope aspect, country rock, and topographic curvature. Since Korea's landslide hazard map reflects topography, geology, and forest floor conditions, it has been shown that it is reasonable to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides using it. As a result of evaluating the risk of landslides based on the fault zone and epicenter in the Pohang area, the risk grade was changed to reflect the impact of the earthquake. Conclusion: It is effective to use the landslide hazard map to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides at the regional scale. The risk map based on the fault zone is effective when used in the selection of a target site for preventive erosion control work to prevent damage from earthquake-induced landslides. In addition, the risk map based on the epicenter can be used for efficient follow-up management in order to prioritize damage prevention measures, such as to investigate the current status of landslide damage after an earthquake, or to restore the damaged area.

Prediction of Marine Accident Frequency Using Markov Chain Process (마코프 체인 프로세스를 적용한 해양사고 발생 예측)

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2019.11a
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    • pp.266-266
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    • 2019
  • Marine accidents are increasing year by year, and various accidents occur such as engine failure, collision, stranding, and fire. These marine accidents present a risk of large casualties. It is important to prevent accidents beforehand. In this study, we propose a modeling to predict the occurrence of marine accidents by applying the Markov Chain Process that can predict the future based on past data. Applying the proposed modeling, the probability of future marine accidents was calculated and compared with the actual frequency. Through this, a probabilistic model was proposed to prepare a prediction system for marine accidents, and it is expected to contribute to predicting various marine accidents.

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Development of Prediction of Electric Arc Risk using Object Dection Model (객체 탐지 모델을 활용한 전기 아크 위험성 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Gyu-bin;Kim, Seung-yeon;An, Donghyeok
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.38-44
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    • 2020
  • Due to the high dependence on electric energy, electric fires make up a significant portion of fires in Korea. Electric arcs by short circuits or poor contact cause three of four electrical fires. An electric arc is a discharge phenomenon of electrical current between the insulators, which instantaneously produces high temperature. In order to reduce the fire due to electric arc, this study aims to predict the electric arc risk. We collected arc data from the arc detectors and converted into graphs based on temporal arc data. We used machine learning for training converted graph with different number of temporal arc data. To measure the performance of the learning model, we use the test data. In the results, when the number of temporal arc data was 20, the prediction rate was high as 86%.